In small steps real estate talk in Southern Nevada - with communities like Summerlin, Mountains Edge, Charleston Heights, Spanish Trail, Henderson and Anthem - is turning to recovery looming on the horizon. 2009 statistics showed that it does have a pulse as investors descended in droves on the scene to gobble up property for rentals in the lower half of the market. First-time home buyers were also active, enjoying low mortgage rates, nice tax benefits and attractive prices.
Prominent Las Vegas housing industry analyst, Home Builders Research, is cautiously optimistic about the market's direction this year. Resale home prices are to increase 3.3%, or $4,000 in 2010, go to $127,000, it says. Moreover, existing home sales should reach 45,000 units, which is about the same as what happened in 2009. These estimates mirror that that the bottom has been reached in the long and unkind real estate slide and there is a moderate upturn in the works. If mortgage money remains as affordable as it now is - even though underwriting guidelines seem to be tightening - this scenario has a chance.
That's one side of the coin, however. The other side looks a bit different.
The International Builders' Show that recently concluded its annual run here in Las Vegas featured several speakers who of course took turns speaking about the state of the tattered housing market. Some of them were bearish on Southern Nevada. Mortgage foreclosures will keep rising in 2010 due to the weak economy and prices will take a cue from that and slide down, not by much as there barely is any room to go lower. Job growth here remains gloomy at least through this year and possibly goes into next as well, putting a painful dent on demand.
Who is right on Las Vegas real estate market's near future? Everybody and nobody. Both camps base their projections on available data, but how all that is interpreted can vary. What likely will happen is something between these two views. That is, the bottom is here, or near, and the market will bounce along there for a while, trying to find smoother stretches of road that would then give better traction. Any lasting recovery, though, will be slow.
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