Why Buy Before the Bottom?

This has been a question floating around for the last few days.

First of all, nobody knows where the bottom is.  Some say it is 6 months.  I doubt it after speaking to my banker clients.  Some say 18 months to two years.  Some areas may be trending downward for the next 8-10 years if you believe everything you read.

 So why buy now if now is not the bottom?

How about this answer.....Cost averaging.

This is where you might buy one unit at $47,000 and another one at $53,000.  Your average cost per unit is $50,000.  As you continue to buy on the way down, assuming you are buying similar property in similar neighborhoods, your cost average goes down.

Assuming again that rents are consistent, your cost is going down and by extension your monthly profit is going up.

Average cost down.  Average profit up.

This is a practice that can't really be employed if you are only planning to buy one property, but if you plan to get into the market and stay in, then there is no reason to wait for the perfect time.

It is likely that you will even continue to buy as prices start to rise again if you are continuing to create a reasonable margin on your rental income.    

As lending continues to tighten, less and less people will be able to obtain loans.  This means that the rental market will continue to strengthen.

 

10 Comments on Why Buy Before the Bottom?

Rich:

So true.  If I could accurately predict where the market is going to be, I wouldn't be working. 

07/18/2007 07:31 AM by ยป Bill Burress Nationwide Mortgage Originator


Rich, your point that the rental market will strengthen as mortgages become harder to get is well taken.  Rental units may continue to rise in value even as home sales taper off.

07/18/2007 07:31 AM by Brian Schulman - Your Lancaster County, PA Real Estate Professional (Mastros Real Estate, Inc.)


Great thoughts. You're 100% right. Real estate is just like the securities industry, and that is an effective way to increase your holdings while bringing up your long term profit.

07/18/2007 07:39 AM by John & Jessica Poltrock (RE/MAX Mountain Properties)


I hear an echo!  Great post, Rich.   While my market area is a bit different (I just completed a CMA that included three recent sales selling for more than list price) I agree.  And I'm right there with Bill, too... always looking for that crystal ball!

 

07/18/2007 07:41 AM by John Mayne & Associates (Coldwell Banker Previews International)


You make a great point. Let me add one thing. Interest Rates. If you have a fixed cost that you expect to pay,the amount you can afford to pay for the property will go down as the rates go up. I say buy now or think about it forever.

07/18/2007 07:47 AM by SHAUN WREN (WRENMB)


For my area, North East New Jersey the question may not even be valid anymore.  In come towns we are seeing prices improve and days on market fall, though not to levels we would like to see them, but 10 or more fewer days on market does make use feel a bit better.  At most we have seen about a 2% or 3% price drop over the market highs of 2005/2006 so a very insignificant amount over the long hall. 

At this point waiting in North East New Jersey means you will pay higher prices and have a higher interest rate on your mortgage, so why wait.

07/18/2007 08:25 AM by New Jersey Real Estate James Boyer Morris, Essex & Union County NJ Realtor (RE/MAX Properties Unlimited, Real Estate)


Rich, I just did a post on this. I used cow farmers as an analogy.

07/18/2007 01:02 PM by John Evarts (Classic Property Management of Santa Clarita)


Rich,

Thanks for giving me a good explanation for my clients of why now is a good time to buy if you're an investor. 

Fran

07/18/2007 06:52 PM by Fran Gatti - Crescent City CA Real Estate (RE/MAX Coastal Redwoods)


Rich, this is a well written and easily understood post on cost averaging.  And I paid $10.99 for that crystal ball!  Keep the good posts coming.

07/18/2007 10:48 PM by Palmetto Bay | Redland Real Estate | Maggie Dokic (EWM Realtors)


Rich,

You've got some great information throughout your blog!  I'm tippin' my hat to your wealth of information!

 

08/13/2007 05:44 PM by Rick Turner (RE/MAX Executives)


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Real Estate Agent: Rich Kruse (Gryphon USA, Ltd.)
Rich Kruse
Columbus, OH
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Gryphon USA, Ltd.

Office Phone: (614) 885-0020 Ext.: 17
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A lighthearted yet informative look at the real estate and asset sale professions. Gryphon services clients sale and management problems with creative and sometimes extremely aggressive solutions. Primarily a servicer for sellers, Gryphon's professional do also assist investor/ developer buyers with acquisition transactions where the company sometiems participates as a principal.

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