This has been a question floating around for the last few days.

First of all, nobody knows where the bottom is.  Some say it is 6 months.  I doubt it after speaking to my banker clients.  Some say 18 months to two years.  Some areas may be trending downward for the next 8-10 years if you believe everything you read.

 So why buy now if now is not the bottom?

How about this answer.....Cost averaging.

This is where you might buy one unit at $47,000 and another one at $53,000.  Your average cost per unit is $50,000.  As you continue to buy on the way down, assuming you are buying similar property in similar neighborhoods, your cost average goes down.

Assuming again that rents are consistent, your cost is going down and by extension your monthly profit is going up.

Average cost down.  Average profit up.

This is a practice that can't really be employed if you are only planning to buy one property, but if you plan to get into the market and stay in, then there is no reason to wait for the perfect time.

It is likely that you will even continue to buy as prices start to rise again if you are continuing to create a reasonable margin on your rental income.    

As lending continues to tighten, less and less people will be able to obtain loans.  This means that the rental market will continue to strengthen.

Richard F. Kruse is the President of Columbus, Ohio based Gryphon USA, Ltd. (www.gryphonusa.com).  The Gryphon Organization includes Gryphon Asset Management providing receivership and consulting services in the distressed marketplace, United Country Ohio Realty & Auction Group (www.ucohiorealty.com & www.ucohioauctions.com) providing real estate brokerage and auction services throughout Ohio and OnlineAuctionUSA.com (www.onlineauctionusa.com) providing commercial asset liquidations from the Midwest to East Coast. 

United Country Ohio Realty & Auction Career Opportunities Available.  Call 614-885-0020 x 17

 

10 Comments on Why Buy Before the Bottom?

JUL
18
2007
118,799 Points

Rich:

So true.  If I could accurately predict where the market is going to be, I wouldn't be working. 

7:31am • #1
277,925 Points 3 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Rich, your point that the rental market will strengthen as mortgages become harder to get is well taken.  Rental units may continue to rise in value even as home sales taper off.
7:31am • #2
Great thoughts. You're 100% right. Real estate is just like the securities industry, and that is an effective way to increase your holdings while bringing up your long term profit.
7:39am • #3

I hear an echo!  Great post, Rich.   While my market area is a bit different (I just completed a CMA that included three recent sales selling for more than list price) I agree.  And I'm right there with Bill, too... always looking for that crystal ball!

 

7:41am • #4
You make a great point. Let me add one thing. Interest Rates. If you have a fixed cost that you expect to pay,the amount you can afford to pay for the property will go down as the rates go up. I say buy now or think about it forever.
7:47am • #5
1 Featured Post

For my area, North East New Jersey the question may not even be valid anymore.  In come towns we are seeing prices improve and days on market fall, though not to levels we would like to see them, but 10 or more fewer days on market does make use feel a bit better.  At most we have seen about a 2% or 3% price drop over the market highs of 2005/2006 so a very insignificant amount over the long hall. 

At this point waiting in North East New Jersey means you will pay higher prices and have a higher interest rate on your mortgage, so why wait.

8:25am • #6
2 Featured Posts
Rich, I just did a post on this. I used cow farmers as an analogy.
1:02pm • #7
173,945 Points 17 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Rich,

Thanks for giving me a good explanation for my clients of why now is a good time to buy if you're an investor. 

Fran

6:52pm • #8
226,343 Points 41 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Rich, this is a well written and easily understood post on cost averaging.  And I paid $10.99 for that crystal ball!  Keep the good posts coming.
10:48pm • #9
AUG
13
2007

Rich,

You've got some great information throughout your blog!  I'm tippin' my hat to your wealth of information!

 

5:44pm • #10

Leave a response…



(optional)
What does the graphic say?
 
Rainmaker_large

Rich Kruse

Columbus, OH

More about me…

Gryphon USA, Ltd.

Address: 9387 S. Old State Rd., Columbus, OH , 43035

Office Phone: (614) 885-0020 x 17

Cell Phone: (614) 885-0020

Email Me

A lighthearted and informative look at the real estate and asset sale professions. The Gryphon Organization provides real estate, auction and asset management services through a variety of subsidiaries including Gryphon Asset Management and United Country Ohio Realty & Auction Group.


Links

Archives

RSS 2.0 Feed for this blog

Find OH real estate agents and Columbus real estate on ActiveRain.