I know that many of you disagree with this, but according to Moody’s economists, the regional economic outlook shows that the economic recovery is gradually making its way across the country. It started in the central core of the country, and spread west first. Now it is beginning to impact the southeast and northeast positively.
The map at the Economy.com website shows a swatch of states “in recovery” down the middle of the country and in the upper northwest. These states include Idaho, Montana, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana and Alaska. The only northeastern states considered out of the woods as of December 2009 were Vermont and Massachusetts. Most other states are listed as “moderating recession,” except for Nevada, which is still considered to be in recession.
There is some evidence of a turnaround in manufacturing in the Midwest. Manufacturing employment is up in the Great Lakes region after lows were hit in June 2009. The Plains region seems poised next for improvements in manufacturing activity.
There are caveats to the signs of life in the economy. The greatest risk Moody’s identifies is that businesses will fail to continue to restock inventory. Further restocking will depend on an upturn in consumer confidence and spending on durable goods such as automobiles. The housing market is still weak and is the second threat area to the economy long term. The states that will lag behind in recovery are those that have lost the most in home market value, especially Nevada, California, Arizona and Florida. The faltering commercial real estate market is identified as the third weak link in economic recovery.
Dave Rosenmarkle
Broker/Owner
Highland Realty
Arlington, VA 22207
703-538-2566
davidrose@mris.com
www.HighlandAgents.com
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