Even though we're still getting the monthly up and down jolt new stories of the general housing market, most experts have finally started saying that we are at, or near, the bottom of this housing bust. Most of the big markets with the major busts great downward spirals have slowed or stopped. Many markets have even seen a tick or two in the UP direction. Signs of a stabilizing housing market? Maybe.
Here's what troubles me. As we start to bottom out and begin stabilizing the market and start the march to steady appreciation again, many news articles add in to their stories "we still have a long way to go before we reach the previous peaks of the housing the market. YOU DON'T SAY!
Maybe these guys are hoping for a quick turn around and boom years again. I truly can't imagine what they're thinking when they write that. I thought the whole goal in the housing industry was getting back to Normal. The boom years were clearly NOT a normal market. The boom was fueled by easy lending standards, a surging economy and quite frankly...greed.
Setting our sights on the peak of the housing boom as a price goal is fool-hardy. It won't be reached again for a long, long time. Give it up.
We can, however, get to a normal market again. One where the value of a property can be directly tied to the income levels of the area. Where there is a normal time on the market for homes to sell. Those time frames will vary with the market, but I can safely say that it's not normal for homes to sell in days or in years. The average time on the market for what used to be called normal is six months.
So, news people, do you think we can stop focusing on the crash, stop focusing on the boom, and start focusing on getting back to normal? What do you say?
Real Estate One - Milford, MI
Helping the first time and every time
Roger, I've opined several times that when the market stabilizes and resumes what we should probably call a sane appreciation climb again - something in the 3-4% per year range that has some basis in historical trends prior to the bubble - it will take at least a decade or more for homes to gain back all of the value that they have lost inthe last 2-3 years. It looks like we will bottom out in our area with accumulated losses of about 30-45% of the pre-bust values to which homes had climbed, depending upon their location. So, a decade or more will be required to get thatvalue back. By then, of course, the normal inflation curve will have taken everything up, so they will not seem as outrageously priced as they were befor ethe bust.
Mar 01, 2010 11:57 AM
Palatium Auctions Moving, Downsizing, Liquidation Auctions, Estate Sales. 314-690-1978 Certified Personal Property A... - Town and Country, MO
St Louis MO Auctioneer, Estate Appraiser & Auction
Margaret Rudd & Associates Inc. - Oak Island, NC
Roger, You have hit the nail an the head. We will not see boom prices again anytime soon. The main group we need to help understand this is sellers. Until sellers understand this we are going to struggle.
Mar 01, 2010 12:17 PM
Hickory, NC
Norm-which is exactly where it should be since we basically had a decade of growth in only a couple of years.
Cathy-not sure if we're creating a new normal, just returning to an actual normal. And I think that's the issue here. Many felt that the boom years were the normal.
Tom-I agree. I think more sellers have come to realize this, but there is still a long way to go. I wrote about this in 3 Secrets to Getting Your Property SOLD! You can either price it for the current market, or price it for the future market.
Mar 01, 2010 01:01 PM
Prudential Verani Realty, Londonderry,New Hampshire - Londonderry, NH
Realtor, Broker Associate
We need to give the sellers more credit than we do. They carry the emotional pain that need time to lessen, we need to be there to ease the pain. Sometimes with a shot of Bellevedere on ice--snows nice if you have it.
" One where the value of a property can be directly tied to the income levels of the area."
Good point.
Mar 01, 2010 02:37 PM
San Diego, CA
You should find a way to forward your thoughts to every newspaper, magazine, publisher, radio show, television show, and news show out there.
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Mar 08, 2010 09:19 AM
Hickory, NC
Russel, I'm open to suggestions. If you know how to get them to print it, let me know. And thanks for the comment.
Mar 08, 2010 09:53 AM
Comments(8)