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Real estate activity report for 2009 and projections for 2010

By
Real Estate Agent with The Wichita Home Team with KW Signature Partners

Plane at AirshowReal estate activity report for 2009 and projections for 2010

 

The economy is growing but fallout from the recession continues to impact commercial real estate.  No commercial real estate recovery is expected before 2011.  The job market is expected to rebound in the 2nd half of 2010 and that will cause a rising demand for office and warehouse space says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.  Consumer confidence later this year will sustain the retail sector and encourage more people to enter the rental retail market.  February's increase in retail activity on top of the 4th quarter increase in 2009 seems to be backing Yun's prediction.

 

Strong Gains in existing-home sales were experienced in most states in the fourth quarter of 2009.  48 states saw an increase in sales over 2008 with 32 state experiencing double-digit gains.

 

Short sales and Reo sales still make up a large amount of real estate activity in the later part of 2009 and into 2010.  In November of 2009, National short sales accounted for 12.4% of the existing home market behind move-in ready REO sales at 12.6%.  In January, 2010 short sale transactions accounted for 15.9% of home purchase activity.  The percentage of distressed property sales in the housing market rose for the third straight month in January, 2010 reversing four months of declines.  Total distressed sales nationally were 43.1% in January, 2010.Data provided by Campbell Surveys.  www.campbellsurveys.com

Unemployment triggers Foreclosures:  Job losses and reduced income are the top reasons that many U.S. homeowners are facing foreclosure.

Home Buying Trends for 2009:  Source: National Association of Realtors

78%    Bought a single family home

90%    Began their search on-line

60%    Were married couples

21%    Were single women

10%    Were single men

Average age was 39

Median home value was $172,609

 

2010 Kansas Housing market Forecast:  Source: Center for Real estate, Wichita State University

Wayne Short, RE/MAX Realty Professionals is a member of the Center For Real Estate Advisory Board.  Dr. Stanley Longhofer is the Director of the WSU Center for Real Estate.

Employment:  Total non-farm employment has fallen 4% from the beginning of 2008.  It is expected to continue to fall through the 1st quarter of 2010, after which a slow recovery will begin.

Interest rates:  Low rates of around 5% will not last indefinitely but should not rise to any level that will hurt a housing recovery.  The mortgage bankers Association   forecasts the 30-year fixed rate will rise only to the 6.3% range buy the end of 2011.

Wichita Forecast:  Wichita home sales have fallen more than 30% over the last three years. Unlike some markets, inventories in Wichita also fell.  As a result, home prices have continued to appreciate (slowly) throughout the down turn.Wichita home sales should rise by 5.1% to 9,059 units in 2010.  2010 home price appreciation is projected at a moderate 2.1%.  Kansas home prices are projected to only rise by 1% during 2010.  Wichita makes up 28% of the Kansas housing market.

 

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July, 2015 Mid-year Real Estate Report

 

For the United States, NE Oklahoma and the Grand Lake area.

 

 

 

Nationally, June Home sales were the highest of any month since the RE/MAX National Housing report began in 2008.  In the last 5 month each month’s sales were higher than the proceeding moth and the same month one year ago. The median sales price of homes sold in June was $224,671, 7% above a year ago.  Nationally, supply still lags demand with only a 3.6 month supply of housing.  A 6 month supply is a balanced market.

 

 

 

Nationally, April, May and June saw an increase in inventory but June’s inventory was still 11.8% below a year ago.  For example the DFW area reported only a 1.8 month’s supply of homes. Grand Lake’s supply of housing was almost 14 months.

 

Nationally The average home lost $13,067 of equity value in the last 9 years but over the last 3 years the value of a home went up $45,533 and that equity loss should be wiped out in another two years.  The Tulsa area was not hit nearly as bad.  The last 3 years equity gain was only $21,100 but the 9 year position was a $19,400 value increase over 2006.  The Grand Lake area is still behind values 9 years ago but values are slowly rising.  The only negative to a faster recovery will be the dramatic decrease in oil prices and increase in job losses in the oil industry and how that impacts buyers from the OKC, Tulsa and Wichita, KS area.

 

Grand Lake real estate sales

 

2015 sales started slow but are beginning to accelerate. There were 426 residential sales in the 1st 6 months of 2015, a 2.9% increase but Junes increase over June, 2014 was 40.8% or 100 sales compared to 71.

 

Pending sales at the end of June, 2015 were up 13.4% over June, 2014 and YTD pending sales were up 5%.  During June, 2015 32 homes went under contract priced over $200,000, 34 homes sold between $100,000 and $200,000 and 27 homes were sold under $100,000. 

 

The number of listings available for sale was down 11.4% at the end of June, 2015 compared to a year ago. The greatest need seems to be homes under $100,000 that are stick built so they can qualify for government loans. (USDA, FHA and VA)

 

Homes are selling at 91% of last listed price, the highest level in over a year.  If no new listings entered the market it would take about 13.5 months to sell Grand Lake’s entire inventory.  This number is three times the national average for major metro areas.

 

 

 

Show All Comments
New Construction Ocala Florida Real Estate
Pivotal Properties, LLC - Ocala, FL
Living and Loving Florida!

Lets keep our fingers crossed for the marking turning for the better. We have been through slumps before and survived and we will do it again.

Mar 14, 2010 08:54 AM
Bill Dean
Haggerty Team St. Louis, Mo. - Fenton, MO
William Dean - Broker, Salesperson

Goodinfo Wayne!  It matches everything else I have been reading but a Sloooow recovery is better than Noooo recovery.  Good to see that your mkt is actually appreciating tho small it is in the right direction  Thanks for the post!

Mar 14, 2010 06:29 PM
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