BUFFETT ISN'T ALWAYS RIGHT. I'm betting he's wrong this time. I hope Buffett is right.

Hi Lenn, 

I certainly wouldn't presume to give WB any advise nor would I be deemed credible if I did. But I surely do know of what you speak. There are so many that are currently clinging by their finger nails and others whose nails have already been ripped off as they slipped from the point of their clinging. The damage and the long term healing that will painfully slow, manifests itself to some as opportunity and not the social change others so clearly see. Your points are so right on. 

Hi Lenn, 

I certainly wouldn't presume to give WB any advise nor would I be deemed credible if I did. But I surely do know of what you speak. There are so many that are currently clinging by their finger nails and others whose nails have already been ripped off as they slipped from the point of their clinging. The damage and the long term healing that will painfully slow, manifests itself to some as opportunity and not the social change others so clearly see. Your points are so right on. 

I never bet....at least not with money.

So I'm not "betting" that Lynn Harley (of Virginia/Maryland) is right ....as usual.

And I'm hoping that Warren Buffett is right ....cause I am betting my time, my talent, and everything I have.....that he is.

It's easy for people that have money to say things will get better sooner. Some parts of the country will recover sooner than others. It's going to be a few years yet before our nation is better as a whole. The job market itself has to improve and salaries have to rise and unemployment has to go way down. We are not there yet! Doesn't Buffet know how many people are unemployed that weren't unemployed 5 years ago?

Lenn - Warren has internal economic data on housing related issues from some of Berkshire's long-term investments in subsidiaries including Clayton Homes (modular homes and manufactured homes), Home Services of America (second largest full-service independent residental real estate brokerage firm in USA and largest brokerage owned settlement services in USA), several furniture companies, Benjamin Moore (paint), several insurance companies, Shaw (carpets) and a lot more.  I've just listed some companies and industries related directly to housing.  Of course, Berkshire has many investments in other industries that are affected by consumer spending.

Warren looks at the long term for investing, so a couple of years (or even longer) won't worry him.  He'll buy cheaper and still be able to use cash generated by the companies in his other activities.

Making investments in some housing related stocks doesn't mean the Warren Buffett is saying the Industry is ready for a rebound.  All it means is that those stocks are currently very undervalued and he feels that the stock prices may rise in the coming months.  Nothing more, nothing less!

Mr. Buffet has been a barometer in the past of what the market is about to do. That is how he makes his fortune. You do point out his not so perfect buys and it makes me smile. Few remember his bad buys but praise him for his foresight =)

Lenn, economic growth in this country won't happen until qualified, permanent jobs are created. Giving someone a job created by a works project may as well be considered a stop gap, but it can't sustain the family unit. Once the support is gone so is the job. For years now we have seen jobs go off shore because of cheaper labor, tax benefits, or stipends to create manufacturing positions in countries we were cozying to. Those are gone, and until we create something new that will last this false economy will stifle our growth. Warren might be buying into those investments, but not necessarily because of a spurt that will take place within our shores.

Lenn, some media here in Montreal put forward the following question: Given the nature of WB's investments, i.e., in companies directly linked to housing, and given the influence of his predictions on investors and consumers alike, could it be that part of the reason why WB is predicting the housing market to recover sooner rather than later is because profit from his investments is directly linked to this taking place? -- Tanya in Montreal

During the stock market meltdown Warren Buffett was telling others to buy stocks when in fact he was selling them!  His returns during this time?  Average.  They were no better than the market in general.  He just has access to the media and uses it for his own ends in my opinion.  He is no 'oracle, or seer!"

multifying - once again  I had to google that to see if it was a real word and not a typo of multipying.  Sure enough its a word.  I think I learn the most new words from you Lenn.  Thanks for expanding my knowledge base one more time

Lenn,

Buffett is right about the recovery, it's just that his timing appears to be wrong. The reasons you list up there should give him pause.

I'm with Sheldon. If Buffet were to sit with me at an open house or ride shotgun with some buyers he might think differently. But I hope he's right.

Lenn;

Buffett doesn't buy losers.  He AN afford to buy and hold however.  My guess is that he sees a good deal and will hold and allow those assest to build in value & demand and sell high.  Why not, I would if I could.

Don't forget, those markets are desireable in China also.