The following was in response to a clients question about the Las Vegas Real Estate market in 3yrs.
Diane,
First of all, real estate is local. Much of the hype that consumers get about the real estate market come from these national syndicates who base their ideals off of national trend and tend to try and apply that to different localized markets; Las Vegas real estate being a very popular target due its past explosion of home values.
A local appraiser has followed 10 homes for the past two years to see what affect the correcting market has done to them. He has seen only a 2% drop in their appraised values. This is pretty standard to all of Las Vegas. Some national experts have said that the Las Vegas real estate market has to drop another 30% before it fully corrects. Even the worst of the worst local skeptics will tell you that that will NEVER happen. If you want to see why look at the following websites and click on the relevant articles http://www.hildrethbarnhill.com/ & http://www.hildrethhome.com/ .
As for true projections for the next 3yrs for Las Vegas real estate...
Last year a study was done by McCarran Airport and published in the Review Journal. The relevant part for this purpose was that they projected that Las Vegas's population would increase 50% over the next 10yrs. Currently Las Vegas's population is +1.9m people. That means that there is a projected growth of over 900,000 people. Take that into consideration that there is effectively only 36,000acres of land available to develop. Las Vegas averages 6,000acres a year of new developments; that's 6yrs before Las Vegas is built out and guess what happens to property values then?
Another report I recently heard was that Las Vegas is in for its largest year over year population growth over the next 18mo. The contributing factors being all of the new businesses opening up like City Center, the Mall of America and many of the High Rise projects finishing development.
We can't tell you exactly what the Las Vegas home prices are going to be but based off of these statistics things look very promising over the next 3-10 years. The recently released president of the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors last month said that they expect to see a change to a sellers market starting at the end of 07 beginning of 08.
The true answer is, "I don't know." The news sounds very promising. I recently saw a Time magazine cover that was title "Is Las Vegas Bubble about to POP?" it was a magazine from the 1930's. I suggest that the answer is NO.
Thank you for your request and I hope that this helps.
Comments(3)