Here are the monthly numbers for the real estate markets in Montpelier, Barre, Northfield/Roxbury, U-32, and Marshfield/Plainfield. It seems that each month when I do this analysis, there's something else I want to add.
For May, I added two pieces of information. First, the "Contingent" column. In real estate parlance, contingent means that an offer was made and accepted. It is in the due diligence period during which inspections, appraisals, title search, and financing are being worked out. Now, there are times when a house that has gone contingent comes back on the market. In those cases, there is the possibility of misrepresentation. I'm not going to worry about that, partly because it's a small subset of the market, and partly because it's not terribly easy to tease out those individual cases.
|
|
Active |
New |
Contingent |
Closed |
Price Change |
% Price Change |
12 month closed |
Active/Closed Ratio** |
|
Montpelier |
46 |
6 |
5 |
0 |
8 |
17% |
81 |
.57 |
|
Barre Town |
55 |
10 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
7% |
60 |
.92 |
|
Barre City |
56 |
13 |
3 |
3 |
9 |
16% |
65 |
.86 |
|
Northfield/Roxbury |
33 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
9% |
33 |
1.0 |
|
Marshfield/Plainfield |
14 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0% |
8 |
1.75 |
|
U-32 |
66 |
8 |
3 |
4 |
11 |
17% |
61 |
1.08 |
**The other column I added was the Active/Closed Ratio. I was just curious about how the total current inventory stacked up against the previous 12 months' sales. In this ratio, any number less than 1.0 shows that more houses were sold in the last 12 months than are currently listed. A number greater than 1.0 shows that there are currently more houses listed for sale than sold in the past 12 months.
Of note is that only Marshfield and Plainfield had an Active/Closed Ratio of significantly higher than 1.0. U-32 was 1.08, but that's pretty close. Also, look at Northfield/Roxbury. Exactly the same number of houses are listed as sold in the past 12 months.
The big picture is that this is still a very efficient market (efficient in the sense that supply and demand are closely aligned). If anything, these numbers may suggest that the market could readily absorb more houses for sale, particularly in Montpelier.
Also, remember last month when there were no closings in Barre Town? Well, look at Montpelier for April. There were five Montpelier houses put into "contingent", however.
Know the market. Remember Ray.
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