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“Kicking The Can,” A Favorite Political Pastime

By
Services for Real Estate Pros with TheHousingGuru.com

Are we now getting the first indications that the housing tax credit may have done no more than kick the proverbial can a bit farther down the road? With mortgage applications falling last week and home prices dropping in many areas of the country, it appears that the housing tax credit may have done little more than provide a temporary and meaningless stimulus while adding to the growing deficit.

 

And while we’ll not have an accurate picture of the market for several months, first indications don’t appear positive. A CNBC article by Diana Olick seems to confirm my opinion that the housing market is far from achieving stabilization and even farther from recovery.

 

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Comments (63)

John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Bob - For those expecting a return to the boom times, the rest of the decade may seem slow.

Charita - My criticism is that our "leaders" continue to act as if we can "borrow" our way to prosperity--a reckless concept.

Jenna - Jobs are key to a sustained recovery, with small business responsible for a great number. Unfortunately politicians have failed to stimulate small business growth.

May 13, 2010 03:00 AM
Ron and Alexandra Seigel
Napa Consultants - Carpinteria, CA
Luxury Real Estate Branding, Marketing & Strategy

John,

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.  Our gov tries to do their best as well as please every one who elected them, so these are the results!

May 13, 2010 03:07 AM
Joe Pryor
The Virtual Real Estate Team - Oklahoma City, OK
REALTOR® - Oklahoma Investment Properties

For those of us who work short sales and foreclosures it was a great thing. Young people borrowed from their parents, asked the sellers for closing cost, and now have money for furniture with the $8000. So after the subprime, alt-a, adjustable rates, and negative ams come home to roost, I can be assured that my specialty will continue on as they futuree forclosures of America hit the market. Oh Joy.

May 13, 2010 03:13 AM
Kevin Franklin
Keller Williams of Central PA East - Lancaster, PA

Ironically in our area the tax credit helped Seller's extract extra dollars out of Buyers pockets(alot of their $ 8,000 credit) by creating a temporary Seller's market from 3/1 - 4/30 !!!! Of course these UA's still have to appraise !!!!

May 13, 2010 03:36 AM
Michael J. Perry
KW Elite - Lancaster, PA
Lancaster, PA Relo Specialist

Great post , we simply can not increase overhead to get out of debt !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

May 13, 2010 03:38 AM
Barb Szabo, CRS
RE/MAX Above & Beyond - Cleveland, OH
E-pro Realtor, Cleveland Ohio Homes

I had a great first quarter but a major slow down in the past couple of weeks. No way to tell when and if it will improve.

May 13, 2010 03:40 AM
Mike Saunders
Retired - Athens, GA

John - I think that the real picture will not show up for a few weeks. We need to understand if the flurry accelerated just a few weeks worth of buyers or months, even years. I believe that it is probably somewhere in between the few weeks and several months acceleration.

May 13, 2010 04:10 AM
Stephanie Stringer
First Choice Loan Services NMLS#210764 - San Antonio, TX
Mortgage Loan Originator

The housing is not going to change until employment numbers get better.  

May 13, 2010 04:37 AM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Ron & Alexandra - And sometimes with not so good intentions or without consideration of the "unintended consequences."

Joe - Some win and some lose.  There are always those creative enough to profit through the down times.

Kevin - Yes, appraisals, the bane of the market.

Michael - There are some who don't understand that simple rule.

Barb - It will be interesting to see how the summer unfolds.

Mike - And it brought in a few renters who thought they should take advantage of the "gift."  I do question just how many "reluctant home buyers" we created.

Stephanie - A strong jobs market does stimulate sales, but we've entered a period of continued high unemployment. (A coming post)

May 13, 2010 08:38 AM
Esko Kiuru
Bethesda, MD

John,

Now that the government has largely extracted itself from the housing market - no more mortgage securities buying, no more tax credits etc. - we'll find out how well the private sector will do to turn this thing around. It'll probably be a long and slow process.

May 13, 2010 10:18 AM
Jerry Murphy, CRS, SRES
Long Realty West Valley - Anthem, AZ
Anthem, Phoenix, and Scottsdale AZ Real Estate

Has anybody here on Active Rain actually been reading the news and watching the numbers over the past few months?  We have added over 500,000 jobs in the past three months alone (and no, they are not all Census workers).  The latest foreclosure report shows the number of homes in foreclosure was down 2% from last year.  ALL of the automakers, including GM, are reporting better than expected earnings/sales.  And we're well past the Cash for Clunkers programs.  The latest Case/Schiller home index showed 19 of the 20 metropolitans areas examined have show price INCREASES in the first quarter of 2010.  Retail sales are up all over the country and consumer confidence is improving.  What more do you folks want? Our economy took such an incredibly steep dive in 2008/09. It is going to take a while to pull out of it completely. We personally have not seen any fall off in activity since the deadline for the tax credit expired.  In fact we've had several of our clients who would have been eligible tell us they didn't care about the tax credit, they just wanted to find the right house.  For as much as I read on Active Rain how a positive attitude is essential in the real estate industry we sure do have a lot of negative Nellies around here.  Best of luck to all of you.

May 13, 2010 10:22 AM
Paul McFadden
Responsive Pest Control - Seattle, WA
Pest Control, Seattle, WA.

John: Great analogy. Obviously crutches only work for a short period of time. Then we need to learn how to walk on our own!

May 13, 2010 11:04 AM
Cameron Wilson
Labrum Real Estate - Murrieta, CA
The Short Guy - Murrieta,Temecula,Menifee Californ

We have not experienced a slow down since the credit ended. Most of the buyers I had were going to buy anyway when they found the right house.

Wasted money in my opinion with the credit.

May 13, 2010 12:36 PM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Esko - Slow is what I expect.

Jerry - While there are certainly some positive signs in employment and consumer confidence, it would have been hard not to show some improvement since coming off the worst recession in decades.  As for the creation of 500,000 jobs, we really don't know just how accurate that number is. 

For instance, the current jobs report includes an estimate of 186,000 jobs created because of the "birth/death" model used by the labor department. But even with that aside, we have about 20 million unemployed or underemployed who must find work before we return to "full employment."  With about 125,000 -150,000 entering the jobs market each month, and with the 500,000 jobs "created" during the past 90 days, we haven't yet made a dent in the 20 million.

Paul - And hopefully we will.

Cameron - Just makes the credit cost more for all of us.

May 13, 2010 03:01 PM
Terry Chenier
Homelife Glenayre Realty - Mission, BC

John,

The thing that hasn't been mentioned yet is Greece and the other members of PIIGS. This is sure to have an impact on us. Canada is projected to be on the hook for $50 billion, because we belong to the "club". IMF.

May 13, 2010 05:28 PM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Terry - Yeah, I didn't realize what an exclusive club IMF really is!

May 14, 2010 12:42 AM
Richie Alan Naggar
people first...then business Ran Right Realty - Riverside, CA
agent & author

John.....Why are they playing with this thing? It has to be fixed not band-aided. I keep telling people that all the known rules are being redefined and new ones introduced. I really don't think anyone can say for sure what IS going on with any certainty. Your post points us in the direction of the question.......Thank you John

May 14, 2010 02:06 AM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Richie - And the politicians that fail to offer credible solutions should be sent home (about 98% of Congress).

May 14, 2010 09:52 AM
Damon Gettier
Damon Gettier & Associates, REALTORS- Roanoke Va Short Sale Expert - Roanoke, VA
Broker/Owner ABRM, GRI, CDPE

Did anyone really think it would help?  I remember NAR touting that something like 68,000 REALTORS had logged into REATOR.org  and voted in favor of extending and expanding the tax credit.  I also remember that there was no option to vote AGAINST the tax credit. 

NAR and Congress need to stop worrying about the few and do what is good for the financial health and stability of the Nation.

May 15, 2010 04:18 AM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Damon - NAR and Congress need to stop worrying about the few and do what is good for the financial health and stability of the Nation.  Look up when that happens; there may be pigs flying.

May 15, 2010 05:52 AM