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Facebook Growth Slows by 48%

By Bartley Wilson

Services for Real Estate Pros with Virtual Pictures Corp. (VPiX)

May 13, 2010 03:00 PM

Facebook's big mistake on personal security is costing them.

BIG-time.

With over 400 million subscribers, and shrinking now... Facebook growth is clearly slowing. And could quite possibly be doing a 180. Evened famous SEO Rock Stars like Danny Sullivan tried and failed to get Facebook to publish (publicly) their cancelation statistics.

Hmmmmmm.

A source of embarrassment perhaps over their last big mistake? Probably.

Facebook declined to give Danny the number of people canceling their account and instead gave him the growth numbers.

Danny posted the following growth numbers from Facebook:

August 26th, 2008: 100 million
January 7th, 2009: 150 million
April 8th 2009: 200 million
July 15th, 2009: 250 million
Sept 15th, 2009: 300 million
Feb 4th, 2010: 400 million

You don't need your HP Financial calculator to figure out that Facebook gains 20 to 25 million active users per month. But since the F8 disaster two weeks ago with the initial release of their LIKE button, Facebook looks likely only to be gaining 13 - 15 million active users per month. Dropping from 25 million per month to 13 million. This is a 48% decline.

Danny, like most of us are asking the same questions about Facebook: Do deleted or canceled accounts still count? If so, the smoking gun here will be an internal memo, email or a written letter from one concerned Facebook middle manager written to another.

Since the big bru-haha over Facebook's security snafu got Senator's Shuman and Franken and others to give Facebook "the middle finger," and demand an FTC investigation it seems clear that Facebook's problems are only now just beginning.

We've sold ZERO Facebook Fan pages over the past four weeks. ZERO.

Go figure.

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Emily Medvec

eXp Realty LLC - Santa Fe, NM

Broker | Realtor | Serving Santa Fe & Northern NM

Growth is an key statistic to track when companies/products in the hotseat. Good reason not to take privacy on Facebork or anywhere lightly.

May 13, 2010 03:06 PM

Sussie Sutton

David Tracy Real Estate - Houston, TX

David Tracy Real Estate for Buyers & Sellers

Leo LaPorte The Tech Guy has been talking about this very issue on TWIT.COM. Today's podcast (from yesterdays broadcasting) said that Face Book people are meeting tomorrow (today)to discuss privacy issues that FB has. Droves of people are TRYING to disentangle themselves from FB and it is quite harder thanit seems. You may think you have done it but you haven't. I suggest you go listen to his pod cast. But I bet you are already a fan!

Coming to you from Texas...

May 13, 2010 03:13 PM

Georgie Hunter R(S) 58089

Hawai'i Life Real Estate Brokers - Haiku, HI

Maui Real Estate sales and lifestyle info

What a relief. But don't look back, there'll be something else to take its place.

May 13, 2010 04:01 PM

John Novak

Keller Williams Realty The Marketplace - Las Vegas, NV

Henderson, Las Vegas and Summerlin Real Estate

A growth rate of 25 million per month will eventually become unsustainable. Maybe Facebook is simply topping out. Will be interesting to see how much influence (if any) the FTC can have over a worldwide site.

May 13, 2010 04:12 PM

FN LN

Toronto, ON

At some point in time, the rapid growth of Facebook simply must slow down. The population is only so big and only so many people have computers or other access to the internet or have an interest in social media.

May 13, 2010 11:41 PM

Missy Caulk

Missy Caulk TEAM - Ann Arbor, MI

Savvy Realtor - Ann Arbor Real Estate

I have read out in the blogoshere of people canceling due to the new privacy settings. I went and checked all mine, my 2 fans pages are still growing.

May 14, 2010 12:16 AM

C. Lloyd McKenzie

Living Albuquerque - Albuquerque, NM

Living Albuquerque

My attitude towards Facebook is that I will wait and see. My take is that there are many out there trying to take advantage of Facebook at this point in time. I commented on a blog here on AR where the individual cited an article, where the writer of the article stated his motive was to start a social networking site himself. It is like politics here in the USA, trash the opponent, soften him then go in for the kill. Let's see who is trying to start up a new social networking site. I do not think that Facebook is the only culprit here. All of these companies are guilty. "Let he that is without Sin Cast the first stone." I would like to see GOOGLE, YAHOO, MICROSOFT, LINKED IN, etc tell us what their policy is on personal security and privacy.

May 16, 2010 05:05 PM

C. Lloyd McKenzie

Living Albuquerque - Albuquerque, NM

Living Albuquerque

Bart, you sated, "You don't need your HP Financial calculator to figure out that Facebook gains 20 to 25 million active users per month. But since the F8 disaster two weeks ago with the initial release of their LIKE button, Facebook looks likely only to be gaining 13 - 15 million active users per month. Dropping from 25 million per month to 13 million. This is a 48% decline"

With over 400 million subscribers, and shrinking now... Facebook growth is clearly slowing. And could quite possibly be doing a 180.

I am using my HP10B II and I think this your post could be misleading. Let me explain: A drop in monthly growth from 25 to 13 is 48% but it misses the big picture. If their subscription is 400 million, then their monthly growth rate of 6.25% based on the February stats. that you've provided. Their new growth rate is between 3.25% and 3.75%. It is significant, but you owed it to readers to put it into perspective. Facebook has what percentage of the market? In light of this decline, who has stepped forward to gobble up this market share? Getting less than 3%of the market is nothing to brag about. Even if there were a formidable competitor to Facebook, that could entice Facebook's users to come over, they would not present any significant challenge, at least not in the near term. In the long run Facebook and all other players will have time to change their strategy. Regardless, Facebook is a very user friendly social network.

I was curious about the point you tried to make about SEO RockStar,"Evened famous SEO Rock Stars like Danny Sullivan tried and failed to get Facebook to publish (publicly) their cancelation statistics" I do not see a problem with Facebook refusing to give this guy the time of the day. After all, Facebook is a business aren't they? Why would they give him? My question to him would be, who are you working for?

Like the other articles I have read, I am not convinced by yours. Based on the numbers you've provided I will say that Facebook normally sees a 6.25% monthly growth rate. Over the past two weeks that has dropped to 3.75%. It is yet to be seen what action they will take to stem the negative trend.

May 16, 2010 07:10 PM

Bartley Wilson

Virtual Pictures Corp. (VPiX) - Monument, CO

VR Software and 360° Solutions

Hi Lloyd,

The point here isn't that Facebook *IS* or *isn't* a good social medial outlet. I am however, demanding that Facebook straightens up it's act.

Facebook has screwed up BIG TIME over the issues of Personal Security and their lax privacy policies. They have made incredible gains of membership. But at what cost to personal security?

Where do you draw the line in the sand and say to Facebook: The LIKE button is fine, but why are you letting my personal information get exposed? Facebook makes millions and millions of dollars on those cute 125 X 125 ads you see on the right side bar. Why should millions of Facebook users have to suffer any level of "personal security risk," just so Facebook can be sloppy and be irresponsible when they launch new services or products?

These are the same fundamental "What the Hell Were You Thinking?" sort of questions now being asked by Senators Shuman and Franken. They are demanding that firms like Facebook are forced to TEST TEST TEST their products first BEFORE they release them. And this is not a Democratic or Republican issue, here. It's an issue as to what controls firms like Facebook can use and how the Government will step in and say you must conform to a strict set of standards if you are going to offer public services and collect Personal Information on Americans.

Exercise: Would be a little upset off if Experian, TransUnion or Equifax SOLD or GAVE your SSAN and entire Credit Bureau to Facebook, Twitter or Google? Trust me, there would be a Consumer Jihad the likes you'd never seen if they did this.

Right now, there are firms are out there who are monitoring your banter, dribble and stupidity on social media networks. And they SELL this data to Equifax, TransUnion and Experian right now.

No -- they do not sell your SSAN #'s but they DO SELL your Twitter usernames and Facebook account names to the Credit Bureaus. This goes far beyond blogging with nothing to say. Who the Hell wants to read the blogs of millions of people who have zero education or training in a particular area? This is why there is so much DIS-information out here and is no surprise why people get burned later because they made a choice based on one email or one website they visited.

I read that men can breast feed.

What?

Yes, it's true. I read that online. You have to tape two cans of evaporated milk to your chest...

Facebook was clipping along and gaining about 50 million new users every four months as of January 2009.

As of February 2010 -- it slowed to gaining 50 million users about every 2 months. Meaning it took 2 times as long this year to gain the same # of users as last year.

Facebook gained about 20 to 25 million every four to five weeks. But dropping 25 million to 13 million is a 48% decline. Had this been 12.5 million, this would be a 50% decline. This was during the Facebook F8 Summit they just had a few weeks ago. (held on April 21st)

Since F8, Facebook has said they expect gains (new users) of 13 million. Down from 25 million this is the math and this comes straight from Facebook.

12.5 million + 12.5 million = 25 million. This is half or 50%, right? 12.5 X 2 = 25.

The last time I checked, 13 million deducted from 25 million is 48%.

Several factors make up part of this number;

1.) The recent debates over personal privacy are getting to be a problem. Sen. Shuman, Sen. Franken and others are demanding firms lie Facebook become more responsible with our personal information. Can you imagine the Consumer Jihad that American's would wage on Equifax, Experian and TransUnion if they were careless with our Social Security Numbers and would license their systems to Facebook, Google or Twitter?

If anyone else out there wants to double check my math I'd appreciate that. This is why I said you don't need your HP Calculator here.

2.) All good things come to an end. Exercise: Do you still see VHS players for sale at Walmart? I rest my case. The frenzy to buy a VHS player has been replaced by the DVD. Which is now being replaced by the BlueRay. Next year, it's a French company called Z-Disc.

MySpace is being quickly buried by Facebook and the negative backlash of a single soccer mom who bullied to death another teenager. It was sick and pathetic -- but it happened. People can be so cruel and it wasn't necessary.

Rule of Thumb: Nothing lasts forever. Except Styrofoam. The cup you threw away today, will still be here 50,000 years from now.

Source: Los Alamos National Labs.

May 17, 2010 04:38 AM