Last week was a mix of ups and downs with a rally at the end of the week that took us into positive territory by weeks end with just slight improvements over the previous week. At this point we are at a low for the year and that probably will not last long since most of the drop in rates can be attributed to a flight to quality, NOT because of economic data. European issues are still causing money to flow into our credit markets causing our rates to drop as that happens, once they decide to pull their money out (and they eventually will) we will see interest rates climb
This week has a few biggies to look at in addition to the Flight to Quality issues. here is this weeks calendar:
- Monday May 17: In the absence of any real news the flight to quality continued today with a bouncy ride. Most of the day we were strongly in positive territory most of the day which has slipped pretty much to unchanged as the bell is about to ring
- TuesdayMay 18: April PPI expected at +0.1% with a core of +0.1%. This number pretty clearly shows inflation under control, if the expectations match the report, it will be supportive of steady rates.
- Wednesday, May 19: April CPI expected to match PPI at both the headline and Core levels. I should just cut and paste here.... These levels are interest rate friendly since inflation is the big fear in the interest rate world.
- Wednesday: At 2pm the FED release the minutes of their April Meeting. Everyone expects the tone of the report to be slightly positive in terms of economic recovery with little worry about any inflation in the near future. Until we see employment pick up it is not likely that there will be any hint of a bump up in rates by the Fed. This should be a non even for the day.
- Thursday May 20: Initial jobless claims expected down t0 440,000, still way above a happy place for the jobs report so likely be supportive of steady rates.
- Thursday: April LEI expected +0.2%. Leading indicators are one of the most forward looking reports and this could hold back rates a touch and may cause a bit of upward pressure.
- Thursday: Congratulations to my wife, Graduation day...
- Friday: no news day.
No matter what happens this week in the above reports, it is likely that Europe will dictate the direction in rates. We have had increasing reports of recovery that should have bumped rates up by now, but the flight to quality from Europe has helped keep our rates low. My fear is this could be an artificial low and we could wake up to an unpleasant surprise soon...
So many factors come into play. First the Euro is very weak now, that may slow the cash coming into our country and possibly pull some out of our markets now since a Euro is cheaper to buy today than it was the beginning of the year. Also we may see a light at the end of Europe's Credit Woes and that will flow money out quicker than you can imagine.
The market will take a quick turn one of these days. I have no idea when but it will be quick and potentially painful for anyone that isnt on their toes. From an interest rate standpoint, We are so close to the 40 year lows now, and at the lowest point of the year... They are WAY more likely to make a knee jerk reaction in the up direction than the down. Play it safe, Get your loans locked.
Have a great week!
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