MORTGAGE foeclosure information

Great info that I can pass along to folks in my office and clients.  Thanks!

The thing that concerns me most about the foreclosure market, is that we seem to be in a self-propetuating downward cycle on price.  When one property sells for a low price, the next neighborhood property to come to market is priced 10% below, to be competitive.  This is especially true with "short-sales."  With each property being priced lower than the next. 

Until prices equalize and stabilize, the number of homeowners increasingly becoming upside down and in trouble with their homes will increase, and many will ultimately enter the distressed market.

Howard: My prediction for Dallas/Fort Worth -

Foreclosures will increase or at least remain high.

Pre-owned resale inventory will remain high driving prices down.

New construction should remain low.

Tax credits expiring has caused buying to slow down.

We need some job creation to decrease unemployment in order for this long term recession to start to turn around.

Myrl Jeffcoat (#14) hit the nail on the head about the self-perpetuating downward cycle on price.  It is now common in my area for agents to underprice their listings.  This was not the case a couple of years ago.  Good pricing stays ahead of the market, so it makes sense to underprice listings.

Hi Howard,  Terrific info.  Lets hope the combination of lower rates on financing and consumer confidence helps !

Well since I'm in Florida this is no news to me. I'm right in the thick of it. But still houses priced right are flying off the shelves and inventory is very low. I believe we have room to absord quite a few new REOs without bringing prices down too much. We are already scaping the bottom and have been for about a year.

Ouch!  I see my state, Florida, still holds the dubious delinquency title!  In my market, I feel prices will continue to decline, as inventory levels indicate "oversupply".  This will suppress new construction.  Statistics can show increased units sold, but lower unit price.

I like your post and the comments.  Pricing remains a challenge in our market.  You don't want to short the seller but you have to be competitive to get sold.

Without historical information, it is tough to say what the market is doing...  A snapshot like this is like looking at one frame of a movie and trying to figure out the plot. 

There's a lot of good information to consider in this post.  It doesn't seem like we're going to be through it for a while yet.

Great graph.  I think the so-called modification trial periods that are occurring are just slowing down the end result.  I checked in with all the homeowners that I have spoken with over the last 16 months that are "still" trying to save their homes with a loan modification and the drum roll please................... "0"...................same story, they make the payments on time and at the end they are told that they didn't submit something or other...blah, blah, blah!  Some have already given up due to the constant stress of foreclosure hanging over their heads and some are about to throw in the towel. 

Long and short of it..........it's the Hoover Dam waiting to blow and these programs are just keeping the foreclosures controlled instead of bursting wide open.

Inventory is still pretty high here and more and more REO's being released which doesn't help sales prices. I don't have a crystal ball, but without new job creation, I don't see how we're going to come out of this recession anytime soon.

Very gret information for all of us to have. Thanks for sharing.

Howard....

Slowly....but surely the industry will find its legs and start getting around on its own. Until then, the best source of what is going on comes from us (Commenter's & Rainmakers) and ActiveRain as demonstrated by this informative post.....thank you

Good info.  With respect to the comments that we should beware the option arm resets, I think that may be overblown.  Only people who had the real teaser rates are at risk.  Otherwise, I know multiple people who are already into their adjustable period at sub 4%.  They intend to keep these loans until interest rates start to rise - which at this point, they aren't going anywhere quick.

Howard,

Even if the foreclosure rate doesn't increase any more, there still are so many of them which will keep the market from finding meaningful stability.

Howard,

My prediction for Arkansas and my Local Market which is West Memphis and Marion Ar.  I think the market will remain flat and prices will stabilize.  Thanks for the graph and I'm glad to see Arkansas is in the lower 3rd.

Thanks for the chart.  It is far from beiong over all this foreclsue and short sale mess

Great news for Montana Consumers!  I hope this ship rights itself fairly quickly!