In the Wall St Journal today is an article, "Mortgage Fears Drive Up Rates On Jumbo Loans".

I want to draw your attention to the chart that's included. In particular, it shows the 10 Yr Treasury Bond Yield and both the Conforming and Jumbo Rates since last January. 

Let me make this perfectly clear: The 10 Yr Treasury Bond Yield does not create mortgage rates, but it has in the past reflected them.  We in the business have for years tracked the 10 yr. as our barometer of what is happening in the mortgage market.

While this chart only goes back to January of this year, you would see the same mirror image going back 5, or 10 years.

I added the Blue Connect and Red Disconnect for illustration purposes.  Can you see how Jumbo Rates (teal Line) have NOT followed the 10 year recently?

You can also see how the Conforming Rates (gold line) also have not kept up with the 10 Yr. (burgundy line).

We now have a disconnect.  We're disconnected from the indicators we've become accustomed to watching. This is the first time I've seen something like this.

We're flying through clouds right now with little or no radar. 

"The Captain has turned on the Seat Belt Light. Please fasten your seat belts, put your trays and seats in the upright position.  We're expecting a little turbulence ahead."