Another in the “Notable E-Mail” series:

“Lenny, I read you online from Dublin, Ireland - surprised not to see the following from you, posted, Aug 3, 2007:

The Tampa Bay area ranks #1! Based on a report by Forbes magazine online issue, Tampa Bay is the best place in the country to buy a home. Forbes notes that the Tampa Bay area is in a V-shape recovery – an area that the market undergoes a freefall, but recovers quickly.”

What the Dubliner refers to is the recent ranking of the Tampa real estate market as being the most resilient. Matt Woolsey, of Forbes.com, published an article back in June, in which he referred to Tampa’s residential real estate market as being “a perfect candidate for a “V” shaped recovery”. This is based on research done by Moody’s Economy.com. In other words, once we reach the bottom, we shouldn’t stay there for very long. Our local economy is strong and housing is relatively affordable.

So when will we reach the bottom of the “V”? Moody’s projects Tampa hitting bottom during the first three months of 2008 with 10.6% appreciation for the year following. But Woolsey notes that predicting the bottom of a real estate market is not that easy. Moody’s prediction is based on data such as affordability, vacancies, the local economy, and the number of investors in the market back in 2005.

While I’m know Moody’s, I do have a degree in Economics. And although it’s been a while, I think I remember one of the first theories I learned was that high supply and low demand puts downward pressure on prices. There’s no arguing that those are the conditions of our current market. But Moody’s does their homework and uses some good data in making this forecast. And you know what? The first quarter of 2008 is not that far off.

Nice to see Irish eyes are watching.