The Bubble Heads are determined to prove to you that thehousing marketis going to collapse. As long as you are nervous, you are listening to their rhetoric and are buying in to their the glass is half empty philosophy. Click here to enlarge the chart to the right to see how Mortgage defaults have increased in Canada.
Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals May 2010http://www.caamp.org/meloncms/media/Spring%20Survey%20Report%202010%20ENG_2.pdf
The Global financial crisis that was caused by the American system of Banking and now is the topic of the G8 and G20 summits (do we need to tax banks and limit their lending policies?) and how banks are being regulated. Do Canadians need to suffer the additional expense of a bank tax where Canadian banks lead the world in fiscal responsibility? Canadian Banks number in the top 20 in the world, we proudly have two in the top 10.
Yes, seniors will be buying fewer less expensive homes in the coming years. Couples and Empty Nesters will be downsizing as they retire; but it is all as David Foote predicted in the book "Boom Bust and Echo" when they examine the ebb and flow of generational spending. We have been aware of that demographic cycle since 1996.
Lets recap; Ontario and Toronto are moving to Knowledge Base Economics. We are currently at an employment rate of 91%(Unemployment is quoted as 9%) The United States is higher. Mortgage defaults are not what they seem when quoted in the media. Buying a house at 20 - 30% below market value is the rhelm of late night television, The HST is coming July 2010, and builders are nervous at how people will react to an additional 13% displayed on prices over 400K. The media continues to predict that Toronto will fall victim to the soon to arrive housing bubble. If prices move upwards in the New Home Sales Prices, Buyers will move enMasse to the resale market
Also arriving are recently moved in Canadians that are regionally displaced by seasonal employment or manufacturing sector changes; Students to gain a better education internationally and students locally; Immigration by Statistics Canada permits the entry of 250k applicants for permanent residence and skilled labour. Their city or region of choice appears to be the Golden Horseshoe. Traffic on a daily basis does not indicate to me that we are in an economic recession.
Housing inventory is the number of homes for sale at any given time. The number of units sold will give you an absorption rate. We are moving slightly to a more Balanced Market that will provide a greater selection for most Buyers. The real estate market does not flip like a light switch from negative to positive or from a Sellers Market to a Buyers Market overnight. The transition can take months, and even years. Lets enjoy the low interest rates while we can.
David,
Canada has the best performing economy in the world.
The value of real estate slipped slightly during the recession but has fully recovered unlike other countries.
The opportunity cost to buy Canadian real estate is at 50 year lows ( interest rates: although off the bottoms).
Toronto has the most active real estate market in Canada.
If you have the money, this is still a good time to invest, and remember that real estate investment should be directed toward the longer term.
Brian
David, As you know, I follow your info and as always, so on the mark. Thanks again for your input!
Brian,
Thank you for your responses; I had dinner at Casa Loma recently with Joe Mhevic City Council He points out that Toronto is moving to a knowledge Based Economy and we have many in (Toronto) that are the TOP 10 in the Toronto GTA.
http://activerain.com/blogsview/1664862/a-dinner-at-elegant-casa-loma
Marcia,
As always, Thank you for your kind words.
The News is just awful with the "Gulf" news and CNN
Is this bothering you at all?
David
David, Thank you so much for you comments. Thankfully, we are in a good place in SW Florida and have not have adverse effects at this point, It has to do with the currents on the Gulf and where we are in Naples. Since 1997 when I was licensed in Florida, I have been through maybe three hundred named storms, have survived one big one (Wilma) have weathered the Iraq War, the dot com bust, 9-11, and just when I thought only Pestulence would prevail, we are hit with the oil bust. I have to tell you that even in the best of times, our then Gov. Jeb Bush, fought his brother to drill in the Gulf. We are all grateful for his perserverence. Real esate agens in Florida are not Sissies! Oh, my, it has been an interesting ride. I think the retail business with Harry Rosen was a picnic! I was operations manager in 1981 for his operations in the womens division in Canada. I suffered through some tough times in the early nineties but now like this. Good Training. :-)
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