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Where are all the Foreclosures? Only the Shadow Knows...

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Exit Strategy Realty

How many foreclosures are out there?  As far as I can tell "Only the Shadow Knows".

The new buzz is there is a large shadow inventory of foreclosures yet to hit the housing market.

Keeping this inventory of homes off  market helps to stabalize prices of homes in the short term.

Imagine all these homes coming on the market at one time. There would not be enough buyers to absorb the number of homes for sale and this would  cause home prices to tumble.

But lets say we hold onto the homes and keep them off market. 

The result would be a steady flow of homes for sale and a more steady market and this would be good for the real estate market.

Why because the ratio between home buyers and homes for sale is an important number. This is called the Absorbtion Rate.

If there are more homes for sale than buyers this is called a buyers market. In a buyers market home prices will be lower.

If there are more buyers than homes this is called a sellers market. In a sellers market home prices will be higher.

So the logical thing for banks to do right now is to keep homes off the market until there are fewer homes  than buyers. By keeping homes off the market banks feel the homes will be worth more. 

 In math we were taught the theory of  "two negatives equal a positive". 

 I am not sure this is the right position for the bank because we are talking about money here and the value of money does not remain stable over time.

We can see that now in the stock market and in the Euro Zone, and  Greece. What was worth a dollar today may not be worth that in the future. So if the bank holds on to a bad asset too long it might be actually worth less. This is a gamble the banks are taking.

Posted by

 

Jack Lewitz Broker Owner

http://www.ilrealestatespecialists.com

 Email Jack Today: jacklewitz@sbcglobal.net

 Call Jack Today ! Cell: 708-309-5334 Office: 847-674-6710

Michael Collins
*ROCK REALTY|Broker|Realtor|Real Estate|WI Short Sale Agent* - Janesville, WI
CDPE, SFR , Wisconsin Short Sale Specialist Realto

That's an interesting thought.  Maybe they are waiting for high inflation to kick in.  Then they can sell the homes for more $ and make their balance sheets look better.  Of course the dollars would be worth less, but on paper it might make the stock holders happy.

Jun 14, 2010 09:34 AM
John Pusa
Glendale, CA

Jack - The banks allready compensated for the homes, so they are not in the hurry to sell the shadow inventory.

Jun 14, 2010 05:47 PM
Jeffrey Smith
Author of 'Realtors Guide To Short Sale Success - Eustis, FL
Short Sale Education

John is right. What also affects the market is the supply of homes which, in our market is about 24 months...way too many even with the banks holding back. This does not even count the 3 month supply of homes that are pended that are shortsales...at least 50% of which will more than likely not close.

Jun 15, 2010 12:50 AM