While the outlook for recovery and a return to price increases in Seattle real estate is a contested topic, two groups seem to have come to the conclusion that real estate is finally bottoming out.
MacroMarkets, using Case-Shiller Indices views the market as headed into recovery mode, and Zillow is predicting it will happen next quarter. MacroMarkets is predicting a moderate increase in home prices over the next five years, while Zillow thinks it will be flat market. For recession-weary home owners, even "flat" is a nice word to hear in the real estate market.
Economists polled MacroMarkets predict U.S. housing prices will rise by 12% over the next five years, based on the S&P Case-Shiller Index.
MacroMarket's co-founder Robert Shiller did not participate in the survey but called the 12% forecast "a plausible scenario," The WSJ reports.
Plausible...but not likely, says Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.com. "12% over next five years is probably a little high."
For the past year-plus, Zillow has been predicting an "L-shaped recovery" in housing, a forecast Humphries reiterates in the accompanying video.
"We're predicting a bottom in the third quarter of 2010," he says. "Once we hit bottom, we are going to see a sustained period...three-to-five years of modest-to-negligible appreciation, and perhaps flat-to-down in ‘real' terms," meaning adjusted for inflation.
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