Wednesday Market UpDate

Wednesday's bond market has opened down slightly with no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The stock markets are relatively calm with the Dow nearly unchanged and the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is down 5/32, but we will likely see a slight improvement in this morning's mortgage rates due to strength late yesterday.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index for June. This important index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are expecting a reading of 59.0. That would indicate that manufacturers felt business worsened from the previous month, when we saw a 59.7 reading. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates would be a weaker than expected reading.

The benchmark 10- year Treasury Note did close below 3.00% yesterday. Even with today's minor loss it is at 2.97%. The question is whether it can stay below this level. If it remains below that threshold the next day or so, we could see more gains for bonds and even lower mortgage rates. The next day or two will be key to determining which direction we are headed.