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Strategic defaults will eventually crush HAMP, the administration’s homeowner rescue plan, as a new study reveals that the average participant is underwater by more than 50 percent. An article in the Huffington Post provides details of a June 24 report released by the Government Accountability Office.

 

With more underwater homeowners aware that It Will Take Years For Home Prices To Return to previous values, strategic defaults will continue to rise. Studies have shown that as home values reach 50 percent or more in negative equity, such as many of those participating in HAMP, the owners are much more likely to just walk away. And while the lower payments brought about by modification are temporarily helpful, increasing numbers of homeowners are choosing to protect their personal financial health rather than that of a bank, which in many cases, may have received a taxpayer funded bailout.

 

As more homeowners consider the options offered by HAMP, many come to the realization that Requesting A Loan Modification May Be Financial Suicide, as the ultimate winners seem to be the banks. With the damage that modification does to credit scores and the associated higher interest rates on consumer loans and credit cards as well as employment or insurance issues, many determine the reward not worth the risk.

 

Additionally, HAMP has proven ineffective in providing relief for the millions of homeowners promised. In a POST I did several weeks ago, I pointed out some of the programs glaring deficiencies; and with more applicants “kicked out” than accepted, the ultimate results do not justify the billions handed to banks to “entice” their cooperation.

 

Those who are denied acceptance to HAMP should consider themselves fortunate, for in the end, the program will be judged another failure of government to address the correct issue. Regardless of whether strategic defaults will eventually crush HAMP or the program just collapses under its own weight, the result will be the loss of billions of taxpayer dollars, and a problem that was never solved.

 

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51 Comments on Strategic Defaults Will Eventually Crush HAMP

JUL
07
2010
133,169 Points 25 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

John, I would love to disagree with you for the sake of many homeowners, but I have to confess I think you are 100% correct.  IMHO virtually every program the government has created to fix the housing sector has been a tremendous waste of time.  The Refi-Plus program was (is) one of the biggest jokes in mortgage history.  In California, no one is underwater by a mere 5%!

5:22pm • #1
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Deborah - And I wish it weren't true, but I'm pretty sure it is.  Thanks!

5:30pm • #2
389,711 Points Outside Blog

Gee,

 A government program that failed, at least they are keeping their perfect streak alive.

5:37pm • #3
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Hugh - Cynicism deserved :  )

5:40pm • #4
236,007 Points 10 Featured Posts

Hi, John. I just met someone the other day who had been a realtor in another state. He saw what was coming and pulled the value out of his home in the form of an equity mortgage, intending to do a strategic default.

His thinking was that he would screw them before they screwed him...part of the problem is not just the problem but the new mindset.

5:47pm • #5
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Leslie - While I understand the frustration, that doesn't sound like a good approach.

5:50pm • #6
276,303 Points 3 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp

I have to say I have not seen a lot of luck with loan mods, and the credit hit does not seem fair to me.

Marcy

6:05pm • #7
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Marcy - While the intentions of politicians may have been good, the results for struggling homeowners have been dismal.

6:09pm • #8
749,816 Points 99 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

John, anyone holding out hope for home values to return to where they never should have been in the first place is tilting at one mighty powerful windmill :)

6:18pm • #9
563,639 Points 17 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

John - yet another piece of empirical evidence that attacking the symptom does little or nothing to cure the problem.

6:20pm • #10
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Charles - I'm afraid that we have many Don Quixotes--both homeowners and agents.

Mike - But a lot of folks don't yet seem to "get it."

6:27pm • #11
267,611 Points 4 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Interesting perspective John, thanks for the post. It really doesn't surprise me at all. I agree that the number of strategic defaults is likely to increase.

8:45pm • #12
156,572 Points

The whole housing crisis is self perpetuating. More defaults drive down values and put more people under water, who in turn default etc. etc. There needs to be a solution soon, but I haven't heard of any.

9:44pm • #13
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

John - That appears to be the next phase.

Jon - There are no palatable nor politically appealing solutions, and helping the banks does nothing.

9:50pm • #14
613,004 Points 164 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

You are looking at the future of health "care."

9:52pm • #15
865,493 Points 50 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router Attended Rain Camp

Failure of a government program isn't a surprise.  Us repeatedly thinking that the next one won't fail SHOULD be a surprise. 

10:16pm • #16
235,304 Points 6 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

John: with everymisfortune come the seeds of an equivalent, or greater, benefit.

10:30pm • #17
122,226 Points Hit Router Called Shot Master

John, the problems are many (and not limited to the government) and the solutions are few.  But, this too shall pass! 

10:42pm • #18
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Jay - And with the administration's newest appointment, I just can't wait.

Lane - I agree.

Matt - I'm ready. Where do I get in line?

Kent - An in my lifetime, I hope!

11:05pm • #19

I wonder if home ownership will be at a all time low soon if prices keep dropping and the banks are flooded with homes.  Scary

11:45pm • #20
JUL
08
2010
1,545,551 Points 416 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

HAMP was not designed to assist the American home owner.  It was, is and always will be a public relations program to make the government look good.

Reducing a mortgage payment by $9 a month is not going to save a loan from default.

 

7:54am • #23
192,951 Points 1 Featured Post Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router Called Shot Master

Interesting information. It seems that the prospect of looking Good as opposed to being Good has won out. That's a shame. I ask again, where have all the REAL Journalists gone?

8:13am • #24
271,523 Points 3 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

The intention to reduce payments is fine, but the amount of red tape to get to that final point is extrodinary.

8:14am • #25
1,017,121 Points 25 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Your last statement is so true. . .If you are seeking a loan modification and get denied at the end. . considered yourself LUCKY!

8:16am • #26
239,354 Points 2 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

I personally know a family who tired to work with HAMP and were denied. Its said how our tax money was suppose to help but its wasted with out being any resourceful.

 

8:29am • #27
848,742 Points 153 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

So far no one that has tried to modify in my area, has been able to modify. Not saying none have happened but the ones I know and suggested it to have been unsuccessful.

I agree with Lenn's comment.

8:32am • #28
747,566 Points 72 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

This is very sad, but yes, it's a true reality that many folks will be dealing with.  Sure they can destroy your credit, but I think some homeowners, despite the promise to payback what they owe, have decided for a fresh start and will deal with the credit issues later.

8:42am • #29
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

National - We're already coming off the artificially generated highs.

Michael - I agree, but politicians are fearful of the consequences.

Jay - Ja wohl.

Lenn - I agree. It's unfortunate that many see this a their possible "salvation," and will only be hurt by the process.

Scott - At least we have the Internet.

Morgan - But reducing payments on a home worth 50% less than the mortgage is only postponing the problem.

 

8:43am • #30
611,295 Points 11 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

I know someone who lost a good paying job, got a poor paying one and THEN didn't qualify for HAMP !

9:04am • #31
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Fernando - Unfortunate, but true.

Ritu - The only beneficiaries were the banks.

Missy - More have been rejected than accepted--not a promising scenario.

Larry - Once you weigh the alternatives, walking away seems the best option for many.

Michael - Those who need it most are usually denied.

9:09am • #32
111,546 Points 1 Featured Post Called Shot Master

HAFA is there for a reason...its what ANY property that is going to be foreclosed on has to go through first...so the short sale is the wave of the future

10:06am • #33
109,714 Points 8 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Well I guess the tune has changed, I got blasted out of the water when I declared HAMP a publicity stunt. 

Top down bailouts were never going to work and Government & Big Business have no interest in helping the American people, I hope more people realize that in time for the November elections.

I really wonder how far the short sale "wave" will be allowed to go before they put a stop to that as well.  Banks will not continue to approve short sale after short sale & keep lending.  It is absolutely not in their best interest.

And no crying foul when the banks make their decisions.  If all is fair (strategic defauls & short sales) in love & war, banks must serve their interests just like property owners.

SLIP SLIDIN' AWAY...This is not going to end well.

10:18am • #34
367,535 Points 5 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Food for thought: If a home has lost 50% of its value, then it needs to double in price (i.e. increase 100% in value) to get back to its previous high. At a 3% annual rate of increase, it will take 25 years for it to reach that all-time high.

10:22am • #35
2 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Loan mods are fairy tales.  I know several people that have either tried or have been stuck in the process of trying for over 12 months with still no luck.  Some of these people have had to go back and restart the entire process because a year had gone by and current tax returns or other financials were needed.  I wish this was one time when a government program actually worked.  As Hugh said it, "at least they are keeping their perfect streak alive...".

As a business decision, if someone were upside 50% in a property, I can't really fault them for trying to find a way out.  Is that morally right... eh, that's not my place to say.  I wish them the best of luck.

10:41am • #36
154,308 Points 1 Featured Post Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

John, I agree 100%. It is unfortunate but it will be a long time before we see values where they were recently.

11:00am • #37
681,157 Points 130 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Wouldn't it be great if the installation of a loan modification reaged the mortgage? That would be something worthwhile....but of course, it's not about the consumer, it's about the image of Washington. Period

11:13am • #38
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Joe - Short sales are on the increase.

Jenna - This is not going to end well.  That pretty much sums it up.

Bill - I've posted on the numbers before, but few are ready for that "awakening."

Iran - I agree. People must make their own decisions based upon their personal situation.

Ted - Unless we have significant inflation, we'll not see values return for decades.

Karen - It's about the image of DC and funding the banks.

12:47pm • #39
510,459 Points 25 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp

John, It's unfortunate that someone keeps dreaming up these programs, that just are not helping those in distress.   And we certainly are hearing more about strategic defaulters just walking away from their properties, even when they can afford to pay.

12:49pm • #40
594,959 Points 18 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

John,

I am thinking that in some markets and some lifestyles (condo, townhome) it is going to take a long time to return to their original price. 

1:09pm • #41
107,331 Points 6 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Earlier this week I picked up (once again) Larry Burkett's book titled The Coming Economic Earthquake.  Not pretty.  With the gov't. blowing it at every juncture, it's not going to end well.  Good post.

1:36pm • #42
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Sandy - Walking away seems to be the only choice for some.

Don - A long--long time!

Patsy - Thanks. We do have some difficult times ahead.

1:45pm • #43
Attended Rain Camp

I wish it was safe to say the government is successful at helping the little people, but not in todays economy!

1:57pm • #44
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Matthew - At least they've saved their buddies on Wall Street. Maybe some of the big bonuses will "trickle down." :  (

2:06pm • #45
2 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Jut wrote about some of this the other day in Fannie Mae Takes Aim at Strategic Default.  As much as I believe government has a role to play in the economy, the HAMP programs did not help as I had hoped.  Lots of red tape, lots of delay for questionable outcome for many. The only thing I can say is if the government has been able to devise a program to really fix housing, it would have been so costly that it never would have passed.

2:33pm • #46
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Janice - Once HAMP is examined it's easy to see that it could have never worked, especially to reach the millions intended.  And I agree that politicians aren't likely to do what is necessary to save the housing market, both for cost and political expediency--but they were quick to spend billions saving the banks and Wall Street firms.

3:17pm • #47
687,219 Points 83 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Oh, but they couldn't save Lehmann Bros -- they were blood let in March 2008.  Life support Chapter 11.  The vampire zombies started this, and they are still feasting. Lenn calls it having their boots on the necks of Ameican homeowners.  I call it having their teeth in the necks of American homeowners. 

4:00pm • #48
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Carla - It's the great Vampire Squid and company with its tentacles deep into government and taxpayer's pockets.

4:03pm • #49
861,446 Points 76 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

TIme after time, I see homeowners who jump through the program's hoops and either are denied help or get frustrated after months of earnest trying to get a loan mod.

I think it's their plan to make it so frustrating to keep trying, you'll quit.

7:24pm • #50
437,329 Points 35 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

We broke something that will take time to fix....lotsa of time. Someone had to just press it to the limits of known greed and exploit the systems. Until repaired, people will capitalize on the situation in ways not originally intended.... each to his own. Lenders, investors, agents, Real Estate related services and the government will continue to conduct business while at the same time making the necessary repairs. When they do this with roads, they usually close off the main areas, do not adjust the traffic lights, direct traffic manually, everything goes into two lanes, speed limits are reduced into the construction zones, traffic backs up, people get frustrated and businesses suffer along the route..........What a mess..........

Thank you John...for a good post....

8:43pm • #51
421,594 Points 76 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Erica - And what's worse, the homeowner continues making mortgage payments that could have been used to cover moving or other expenses.

Richie - "What a mess" sums it up. Thanks for the support.

9:56pm • #52

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John Mulkey, Housing Guru

Waleska, GA

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