June numbers are in for Hyde Park, Mt. Lookout, Oakley and Columbia Tusculum. For the month, 66 homes or condos were sold. There are currently 309 homes actively on the market and 47 pending sales.
Credit Suisse provides a monthly analysis of real estate traffic (showings) across the country. The traffic index level dropped to levels not seen since the credit crisis began in late '08. The sharp fall off in traffic was expected in May, but June only added to the slowdown. The most worrisome aspect of their index is that the numbers continued to fall throughout the month.
Along with that, the number of pending home sales across the country dropped 30% from May, 15% below May, 2009. The number of closings will continue to decline in July and August based upon this.
So, what does that mean? Overall, it demonstrates that the consumer pushed their buying plans ahead in order to qualify for the $8000 or $6500 federal tax credit. Now, homeowners can expect to be on the market longer and may be forced to further lower home prices, through reductions or concessions in negotiating a sale.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors notes that, "The tax credit has broadly stabilized home prices. Now the key test on whether the housing market can stand on its own without the stimulus medicine will depend on private job creation in the second half of the year and conditions on the Gulf Coast. If jobs come back as expected, the pace of home sales should pick up later this year and reach a sustainable level of activity given very favorable affordability conditions."
Hyde Park, Mt. Lookout, Oakley and Columbia Tusculum have had 661 sales from June 30, 2009 to July 1, 2010. That turns out to be approximately 55 per month. At that rate, there are approximately 5.6 months of inventory. Five to six months of inventory is considered a balanced market.
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