Recently there has been a lot of scuttlebutt going around about the financial solvency of Countrywide Home Loans, the country's largest mortgage lender. Well, I could understand the concern. Heck, now isn't a good time for ANY lender, but I believed Countrywide's CEO, Angelo Mazilo, when he spoke out in an attempt to calm the concerns.
In his comments he assured everyone that Countrywide had enough cash to be able to withstand the current market turmoil and that Countrywide might even benefit from the current conditions with so many other mortgage companies failing.
Then this morning I read a piece on Bloomberg.com that reported that Merrill Lynch had downgraded Countrywide from a buy to a sell based upon fears that Countrywide was facing "effective insolvency" and might be forced into bankruptcy. This could be huge!
What will happen to the mortgage markets if Countrywide does go belly up? So far this is only one analyst with one brokerage house, but that brokerage house is Merrill Lynch and while they might not be the company that boasts that when they talk, that people listen, but I would think that this announcement has got other brokerages looking at their positions on Countrywide.
Anyway, this might all simply be speculation, but it might also be the first ripples of another Enron type of corporate meltdown. Interesting, if nothing else.
So, what are your thoughts? Is Countrywide too big to fail? If they do, will the government step in to bail them out? If the government does step in to bail them out, is this fair to the other companies that didn't get a helping hand? Let me know what you think!
Bob Mitchell
ValueList Real Estate Services, Inc.
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