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why RE is not governed by supply and demand

By
Services for Real Estate Pros with South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association
The SWFL RE Mania
Looks a lot like, South Seas trading co, Mississippi trading co, the Tulip Manias Snowman referenced, Even the Salem Witch Hunts
I read that Sir Isaac Newton lost his entire fortune in the Mississippi trading company, he cashed out 7,000, near the top, reinvested in the down cycle. So if you are on the losing end right now, you are in great company. he survived and so will you. Wink

Most of these mania's there is no rebound, SWFL RE will have a rebound as it is tangible.
In Relation to the bottom dropping out the mortgage market is now toast. This will slow the recovery for sure
Unless, you have verifiable income or, have really good credit. You will not be getting a mortgage for a bit
Problem with proving your income, take median income and see if it debt ratios a median value house

While I understand that you can buy much cheaper (N Cape) it's a sign of an unbalanced market

Numbers here can make you crazy

You have that number above, showing the income and assets values are apart

But then the cost to build versus market, shows heavily towards undervalued
Until we live off intellect instead of emotion we will keep doing this. We as a people are leaning towards emotion than intellect as we evolve, for some reason
Now that the easy money is gone in Real Estate, all the Wanna Be's are now selling MLM's. Some people just have to have the easy money. Or at least the illusion of it! Rolling Eyes

It's funny, when it was the worst time to buy. They all stood in line to buy. Now it makes sense. They are too afraid. I wonder why Brother Buffet is so wealthy. Funny thing is. He displays none of the trappings of wealth. Unlike the people mentioned above. they spend 80 percent of their income to appear to make more money in the hope of attracting a few more greater fools. Fake it till you make it. Laughing

I am on the way to look at 78 Property Portfolio, buying directly from a bank, via trustee; Positive Leverage abounds in this area. The MLS is showing 10 months of inventory. That's close to normal. The locals think they have it rough though! Let them walk in our shoes! Embarassed

Everyone have a great day Exclamation 


We are at or near Peak Negative mood

A few things to watch
Trend the hair bands in the 80's versus the change in social mood; Heavy Metal is quite the rage again

Look for the narrow ties in fashion; it's a sign of upward social mood trends

Also movie wise
When all the horror movies subside and are replaced by something more positive. It's a sign as well

One thing I noticed

Spiderman 3, very dark movie with a glimmer of hope at the end, Transformers, By far was a positive move, where at the end; the transformers were stuck on earth but now were willing to stick it out as per a newfound sense of honor

The Jason Bourne Movie will show the underdog thrashing the current system

We are at peak negative mood I think. This will subside after the elections when we get a newfound sense of purpose

Might be time to go on the boat until then

Unless a random event is on the horizon

Look at what the bridge collapse will do for any company who inspects or fortifies infrastructure

All random events tend to have an economic impact felt by someone
_________________
Jeff Tumbarello

H. G. Wells - "Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe."
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy

I didn't see where you answered the question of why RE isn't governed by supply and demand?  There were some interesting things in there, but nothing to directly answer the question.  In fact, you made the opposite argument, and that was the demand was low because people were afraid, and supply was high... 10 months of high.  So, pricing is going to come down, or the inventory will stagnate. 

The actual post was good, but the title isn't really making it for me.  

 

Aug 16, 2007 08:29 AM
Anonymous
Anonymous

you did not get the underlying meaning

if it was goverend by supply and demand, people would be buying like crazy now because the inventory is so cheap but in fact no one is buying, a few bright spots are out there, but as whole, no one is buying

imagine these price levels in 2005, there would be an endless trail of paper, one option to the next, now you cant give the stuff away

go to www.elliotwave.com and start doing some reading, its a stock site but puts good perspective on RE matters

also read Benjamin Graham, The Inteligant Investor

people were quite happy to buy into a peaking market in 2003 thru 2005. When common sense said not to. They were caught up in the positive social tone. Now, when they should be buying they are not because of the negitive social tone

the basic fact is for 90 percent of us, we have not changed mentally since the dark ages. its a herd mentality, all emotion, no rational thought

 

how is the market in GA, we looked pretty hard at Brunswick

Aug 16, 2007 09:04 AM
#2
Anonymous
jeff tumbarello

i left the comment above

 

this line pretty much backs up the title

 

when it was the worst time to buy. They all stood in line to buy. Now it makes sense. They are too afraid.

Aug 16, 2007 09:06 AM
#3
Anonymous
jeff tumbarello
the demand is not price driven, it is driven by the social mood of the current time
Aug 16, 2007 09:06 AM
#4
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy

Jeff,

Just because the prices are ok, and the economy is doing well, that doesn't mean that supply and demand aren't at play.  A good example would be snow shovels.  Right now... they are a deal.  Cheap.  Plentiful.  But, nobody is looking.. no demand.  During the next snowstorm, people will be buying... even people that don't actually need them at that moment.  The supply/demand equation is just as valid. 

If prices dropped 20% next week, do you think that people would line up? What about if they dropped 40%?  75%?  At some point, the demand will again catch the supply... and then pass it. 

Aug 21, 2007 07:47 AM
Jeffrey Tumbarello
South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association - Fort Myers, FL

supply and demand works for snow shovels. Not for Real Estate,

For instance Prices have dropped in FL 100 percent in some area's and nothing is happening

FYI, prices are not okay , the economy is not doing good

Aug 21, 2007 07:57 AM
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy
Did I read that right?  Prices have dropped 100%?  They are giving away free real estate?  I need to get down there are pick up some free land.  What it means is that even if you think the prices are a steal, the buyers don't.  In this case, perception IS reality, and that means that prices are still too high.  And the economy is doing just fine. 
Aug 26, 2007 04:44 AM
Jeffrey Tumbarello
South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association - Fort Myers, FL

Lane

unless you work in a market measured by fractals and not bell curves you have a hard time understanding, Land in Fl in some Markets was going for 100,00 can be bought for 10,000 now. But the hold time for the next boom/mania is about 10 to 15 years, thats a long time with little or no return on your money

the economy is far from fine, learn to be a "critical thinker" because the paper says it does not mean its true

we are coming out of a debt mania, converting to a cash mania, cash mania's are bear markets

this is the same old story which happens over and over again, those who understand it profit from it,

 quit reading the paper ( unless you are trying to gauge what the masses are doing or for entertainment purpose), read some quality books and start thinking

I am starting to think I am throwing pearls to the swine here

Aug 26, 2007 05:16 AM