They say that we have a sub-prime meltdown in this country. What exactly does that mean? Well, apparently it means that if your credit score is too low you can forget about getting a home loan. Why? Is the money all gone?

Money is one of those things that is hard to define. So hard in fact the government has a bunch of definitions for it. M1, m2, m3, or m whatever. There are more definitions of money supply than you can shake a stick at.

Some people believe that the consumer price index is the measure of inflation but money supply by definition is the inflation index.

So what happened to the money supply? Did it shrink? Is that why there is no money available for sub-prime loans?

No. Actually the money supply is growing faster than the money supply people want it to. So why don't we have money to loan?

Bernanke. He raised the Federal Funds Rate, which lead to short-term rate increases, which lead to major rate increases for adjustable rate mortgages.

This "little" change by the Fed led to major defaults in home mortgages. This has "brought down" many mortgage companies and Wall Street investment bankers.

Was this the intended consequence or an unintended consequence? Either way it was a disaster. Anybody who thinks Ben S. Bernanke is one of the "Good Guys" better take a closer look.

His stated objective of nipping inflation in the bud has instead lead to a possible recession and much pain for a lot of Americans.

Everybody is pointing fingers saying it is the fault of (take your pick) lying loan applicants, greedy mortgage brokers, real estate agents that wanted a sale at any cost, or investors hungry for one more house to flip.

They are all guilty, and none of them are guilty.

 If Bernanke hadn't raised the rates the party would still be going on. If he had only "nudged" the rates maybe we could have slowed down without stopping. Maybe only a few people would have lost their homes.

The Wall Street guys who created these "terrible" negative amortization loans and then paid huge rebates to get mortgage brokers to sell them just picked up their marbles and walked away.

But they didn't go far. They are still making sub-prime loans, but now they are making them on commercial property.

Lehman Brothers was right in the middle of the sub-prime melee. They were providing wholesale lines of credit (warehouse lines) to mortgage banks (conduits) and they were buying "bundles" of loans to securitize. So what happened to them?

Lehman Brothers Small Business Finance is right in the middle of the new lending frenzy, small commercial sub-prime. Should anyone be surprised?

After all, the money supply keeps growing and they have to do something with all that money.

 

 

13 Comments on Is There a Single Person that Understands Money?

AUG
16
2007
244,082 Points 3 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Bill, I'm not sure the IS anyone who totally understands money.  Certainly not myself!  But your Bernanke analysis may be quite correct.
6:45pm • #1

Bill, great information. I personally would never try and teach someone about money and what it costs and where it comes from. I equate it to telling your kids about the birds and the bees the first time.

 I agree with much of what you have to say, but I must disagree with your later comments that the neg. am. pirates are moving into the Commercial arena. The door is big and the money flows, but this market does not have room nor tolerance for the shinanigans the residential market is enduring now.

I have had guidelines tightened and equity investors keep their wallets firmly in their pocket lately and the Johnny come lately's trying to break into commercial are having the door shut in their face.

I have submitted almost 2 trillion dollars in volume in the last month and have had a larger than average amount thrown back. Not due to bad caps or proformas, but due to the borrower not bringing enough to the table. We are sliding into an unspoken 10% down frame of mind here for many many large scale transactions. Try telling your client they need 10% down on that 500 million dollar development deal they could have got last year in a matter of 2 months.

It's getting tight, but like my father told me, they aren't building anymore earth and people are still making babies,  so housing will always rebound.

I for one am glad we are seeing the market correction after too many years of wild wild west. The professionals will prevail once the smoke clears.

I enjoyed your blog, thank you.

George

6:51pm • #3
108,957 Points 11 Featured Posts Outside Blog

George, let me ask you if a small business owner could get an 80%LTV  (non SBA) commercial loan as little as two years ago. Commercial loans have always been income based, not asset based, Not FICO SCORE DRIVEN. These "residential" guys are moving in and bringing lower standards with them.

Bill Roberts

7:06pm • #4

Perhaps since my firm deals primarily with Hedge Funds and Investment groups we are out of the typical commercial genre. We do keep some correspondent lines open for cookie cutter deals, but generally when I package a deal I want credit, networth and of course NOI. I would have to digress that yes, NOI probably accounts for 50-60% of the deal worthiness. Personally I wouldn't mind seeing more focus on credit and assets. To me those two factors show a much more honest picture of a borrower who is spread too thin.

I have noticed alot of residential brokers trying push crap into our pipelines but we usually shoot it down fairly quickly. Hopefully my niche will not become involved in this fiasco. I equate the residential slide into commercial the death spazm of quick buck lenders. I pray it doesn't happen, but with what's happened recently, I wouldn't rule it out.

7:18pm • #5
108,957 Points 11 Featured Posts Outside Blog

George, just pick up Scotsman Guide Commercial Edition and see all the "new" loan programs being pushed.

Bill Roberts

7:27pm • #6
Oh no, Bill.... not the Scotsman's guide... I have alot of uses for that ad generating publication, none of them are for pricing and finding a commercial lender. How does a publication print guidelines and matrixes once a month that change on a daily if not hourly basis? That's my only point.
8:27pm • #7
AUG
17
2007
108,957 Points 11 Featured Posts Outside Blog

George,  It's not about their matrix it's about who is doing what. Got to keep up with the changes in the market.

Bill Roberts

10:12am • #8
I agree with George that there are a lot of interpretations of the money story, just like the birds and bees.  What shocks me is that I've seen so many realtors who don't understand even the biggest picture analytics.  I guess they just figure it's enough to know there ARE trends and they don't need to know what drives them.
1:21pm • #9
108,957 Points 11 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Tracy, when you posted your story about money I thought you were "interested" in what money is and how it affects us every day. We like to say we help people with their biggest investment. This is an allusion to being a financial advisor of sorts. What kind of a financial advisor doesn't even know the rudiments of money?

I was happy to see your article. I wish more of us would show this interest.

Bill Roberts

1:54pm • #10
AUG
18
2007
108,957 Points 11 Featured Posts Outside Blog

John, Everything is constantly in a state of flux. Change happens. The real estate business is also constantly changing. It is being "attacked" on all sides, from
Internet marketers trying to take a piece of the pie tp lawyers saying only they can "represent" our  clients adequately to Financial Planners that want to "control" all their investment capital.

If you think that you can stick your head in the sand and everything will be OK you need to wake up and smell the coffee.

Maybe you can "sell" a house to a first-time home buyer with just a little more knowledge than they have but to fully do your job you need to expand your horizons,

Now you have a nice day.

Bill Roberts

9:29am • #11
Bill,

My head is not in the sand.  Yes change happens, but my job is not to understand that change or to educate the consumer.  I am not concerned with the Internet marketer or even the lawyers or financial planners.  The problem is we need to quit flinging mun on our won industry.  pets face it, I did not write the loan - I did not get paid for a loan.  Is it my fault that some slimy lender socked it to them - NO.  I can tell you that my #1 choice for a lender is the local credit union who has not issued a single NOD all yer and has not had to buy back a single loan - so my supply line is as ethical as anything out there.

As far as my horizons, I believe I am far ahead of my peers - it doesn't mean that I need to be a wall street analyst or understand all of the various aspects of the financial world and how it effects housing.  Even if I did understand it all, being able to convey that takes yet another whole skill set.

John Occhi
5:31pm • #12
108,957 Points 11 Featured Posts Outside Blog

John, you are very defensive about this issue. Is it that you recognize that you are on thin ice here?

As an industry or profession we need to be aware of the changes coming in how we do business. If we want to be able to continue our practice of real estate we better have a good understanding of just what that means.

If more real estate agents had a little "financial" knowledge we might not be in the mess that we are currently in.

When selling something as important as real estate is to most people you need to know a little something about financial matters.

Bill Roberts

5:46pm • #13

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Bill Roberts - "Baby Boomer" Retirement Planning

Oceanside, CA

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Brooks and Dunphy Real Estate

Address: P.O. Box 712501, San Diego, CA, 92171-2501

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