Remaining informed in order to share the market conditions with my clients.
Today is filled with optimism for the future of our economy and the real estate market. Reading between the lines of the commentary, and interpreting the indicators that some analyst supply is daunting. This little announcement supplied by one of my partners, is straight to the point. We're all having to settle down and be patient with the recovery. We will see swells and dips for the next little while but the bottom line is a healthy future. Be prudent with your buying and selling decisions and rely on expert advise.
As always, I'm available for you to address any questions or concerns...
Industry News- Canadaian outlook as supplied to me by Vince Tarantino of Dominion Lending Centres.
The US and Canadian economies will see growth slow over the next six months but are unlikely to experience a double-dip recession, finds CIBC's Recession Probability Index (RPI).
The Index, which has a strong track record of forecasting recessions, finds the odds of another US recession occurring in the next six months are very low. The CIBC RPI measures the probability of a recession by examining trends in a number of indicators, including credit spreads, interest rates and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Board's ADS Index (which includes weekly US unemployment benefit claims).
"We're not in material danger of a rude double dip in the next two quarters,"says Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist at CIBC. "The probability estimate is likely more consistent with a slowdown rather than a true double-dip recession. But, given the uncertainties, fiscal tightening ahead and the potential for a slow economy to be vulnerable to shocks, we will keep an eye on our new indicator nevertheless."
In his latest Economic Insights report, Shenfeld notes that consumers and investors alike are starting to fret over the possibility of a double-dip recession, but he says in the modern era, double dips are more often feared than reality. "A double dip is to be avoided at all costs when holding a potato chip at the buffet line, and less trivially, when steering economic policy.
"Indeed, if one defines a double dip as a downturn after an expansion lasting less than two years, the only post-WWII US twin dives were the recessions of 1980 and 1981-82. Double dips have also been rare in other major economies of late, although Japan fell into recession in 2000 only a year after it emerged from the ‘Asian crisis' recession."
Canadian house prices rose 1.3% in May from a month earlier, and now stand 4.2% above their pre-recession peak, according to a Teranet-National Bank composite house price index.
This marked the 13th straight month of increases and the second that prices rose in each of the six regions it covers.
National Bank Economist Marc Pinsonneault contrasted that to the real estate market in the US, where prices are down almost 30% from their peak. In Canada, year over year, the index is up 13.6%. The index differs from the measure used by the Canadian Real Estate Association.