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A Blog I read quite often is called The Calculated Risk Blog, in this story: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/existing-homes-double-digit-months-of.html the story I've linked to talks about expected supply of double digits in the months to come regarding re-sale homes.  CRB expects supply of existing homes to get into double digits and stay there for a while.  Usually when we talk supply 8 months or less is considered a "healthy" market.  Based on this blog I thought I'd see how Missoula stacks up.

Missoula active listed inventory: 941

Sales to date: 522

Using the CRB math for supply: 941/522 * 7 = 12.62 months so a slightly over-stocked market.  That's the total market though, lets pull apart new construction from re-sale, and look at them side-by-side.

Active listed (new - resale): 140 - 801

Sales to date (new - resale): 50 - 472

So then the supply for new construction at this point is a whopping 19.6 months of supply, a pretty top-heavy market with way too much for sale.  Looking at re-sale we have a better number of 11.88 months, still too much supply but a little better when you pull out new construction.  That shows that the current amount of listings does not match up with the sales so far this year to be a healthy market.  Despite boosted activity from the tax credits we still see too much supply, especially in new construction.  Missoula's market is still dealing with issues of over-supply and finding its way through.  Opportunities are great, with high supply and good rates.  Qualified buyers have awesome choices and can expect to negotiate good deals, however move-up buyers that need to sell a home right now might find things to take a little longer to get into that next home as they'll be battling with the current amount of over-supply. 

 

3 Comments on Lets Talk Supply

JUL
31
2010
1,018,579 Points 25 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

I use this also but I called it differently. . .it is called an Absorption Rate... same purpose

6:01am • #2
1 Featured Post Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Brint,

This an excellent formula. Not discussed enough in my market...

In late 2008, our market tanked and I was exposed to this concept of number/month supply. We shifted drastically from a sellers market of 3/1 (buyers to sellers), to 1/5, and in some areas north of Toronto, 1/13 (buyers to sellers).

We, as professional in real estate, should pay more attention to the trends and shifts in the the listing to sales number.

Thanks for the awareness in your market..

Sergio

11:06pm • #3

What does the graphic say?

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Brint Wahlberg

Missoula, MT

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Windermere Real Estate

Address: 2800 S. Reserve Street, Missoula, MT, 59801

Office Phone: (406) 541-6550 x 242

Cell Phone: (406) 529-4663

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Mainly Real Estate-based discussion about whatever floats into my head.


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