Mortgage Rate Forecast - August 2, 2010

Last week was fairly boring, though it did get interesting towards the end.  One thing that never seems to amaze me is the two-faced types out there, even among the “gurus”, when it comes to forecasting mortgage rates.  I mean, look at how many (especially those that simply regurgitate what the rate alert services say) said to lock your rates the week prior, then come back and say floating sometimes pay off.  Well, it paid off really well if you had been following my advice and had not locked when they were saying to lock.  Even today, I am hesitant to switch stances and I said why in my weekly radio show.

Last week, as I mentioned, was mostly boring.  Treasury Auctions started off well with the 2-year and 5-year T-Note auctions going well, then the 7-year fizzled a bit.  Things heated up and MBS prices broke to new recent highs, followed by the beginning of a corrective move, all in the last two days of the week.  New Home Sales started the weak off with a little optimism about the housing recovery and the Case-Shiller HPI showed some gains in prices, adding more optimism.  Consumer Confidence was still weak and the Beige Book showed more on the unusualness of the economic recovery and all favored MBS prices and mortgage rates pushing lower.  MBS Prices bounced off their 10-day moving average and headed higher as a result.  They continued their push higher with the Jobless Claims report and despite a marginal 7-year T-Note auction.  They even gapped higher, mostly due to dips in stocks, on Friday but the GDP report didn’t help any.  Then came the Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment that sent a shock through the markets and stocks turned the corner and MBS prices began their dive.

Now we head into the week with MBS prices continuing lower after today’s data continues to be unfavorable.  But things could change back to good, or be strong enough to break the trend with the data that lies ahead this week.  Just take a look…

• Monday:  ISM Manufacturing Index (10:00), Construction Spending (10:00), Ben Bernanke Speech (10:15), 3-month T-Bill Auction (11:30), 6-month T-Bill Auction (11:30)
• Tuesday:  Motor Vehicle Sales, Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE – 8:30), Personal Income (8:30), Consumer Spending (8:30), Pending Home Sales (10:00), 4-week T-Bill Auction (11:30)
• Wednesday:  MBA Purchase Applications (7:00), ADP Employment Report (8:15), Treasury Announcements (9:00), ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (10:00), Crude Inventories (10:30)
• Thursday:  Jobless Claims (8:30), Treasury STRIPS (3:00), Money Supply (4:30)
• Friday:  Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30), Unemployment Rate (8:30), Hourly Earnings (8:30), Average Workweek (8:30), Consumer Credit (3:00)

As you can see, there is plenty of data that is going to drive mortgage backed securities and mortgage rates.  One of the main things that drives the markets is fear, the strongest emotion one can have.  The reason things are changing right now is that fear has been subsided some with last week’s Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment, coupled with this morning’s ISM Manufacturing Index.  Will it hold, or will fear grip the markets again with the remainder of data coming up?  That is the big question of the week and will be the deciding factor in the future of mortgage rates?

Looking at the charts, we see a ripple in the pattern, this time to the upside.  About two weeks ago, that ripple was to the downside, but worth noting.  We continue to hold above the rising 10-day moving average and so long as that holds true, locking is not likely to be the correct decision for those that have the time before closing.  Even if we dip below it, briefly, the current trend may not be broken.  The reality is that nothing has significantly changed, at least not yet.  Even stochastic indications, which remain in the overbought spectrum, are following the motions they have done for quite some time now, well over a month.  This move lower appears to be nothing more than a correction at this point in reality.  That being said, with the plethora of data coming in this week, if the trend is to be broken, this week would be the time to make it happen.

The bottom line is that even with the rise and subsequent fall in MBS prices (and dip/rise in mortgage rates) last week into today, the trend is still intact.  So long as MBS prices hold above their 10-day moving average, that trend will remain unbroken and there is no need to lock.  Any dip below that level may, emphasis on may, signal a trend reversal for the long run, so be ready if this happens.