by Steve Harney on July 30, 2010 · 
More and more homeowners are questioning whether they should keep their homes on the market or wait until next year to sell. The thinking obviously is that next year the market will be better and therefore they will be able to garner a higher price. But, is that true? Is there any evidence that the market will come roaring back next spring? The evidence actually points to the exact opposite. Most experts are predicting that we will not see appreciation until the end of 2012 and even then the appreciation will be minimal.
The MacroMarkets LLC co-founder and Chief Economist is Robert Shiller, the founder of the S&P Case Shiller Report. Professor Shiller surveys 109 economists, real estate experts, investment and market strategists each month for the their Home Price Expectations Survey. In the July survey, it was reported:
"The consensus indicates diminished confidence in the prospects for a near term recovery ... This month, 60% of the panelists projected negative home price growth for 2010."
That percentage was up from 40% just two months ago!
Mean Cumulative Change from Current Price
The survey went on to say:
"The July survey results also revealed a less optimistic longer-term home price forecast. Terry Loebs, MacroMarkets Managing Director, remarked, "Although still positive, the average outlook for five-year cumulative home price appreciation fell in July for the second consecutive month, and is now in single-digit territory. This new consensus suggests a less robust housing recovery scenario."
The experts are predicting that cumulative appreciation will not reach positive numbers until the end of 2012 and will still be under 10% by 2014.
What does this mean to you?
If you are thinking of waiting for the market to show appreciation before selling your home, you have a two year wait not a one year wait. And if you are looking for double digit appreciation, it is five years away. Perhaps it is best to sell now and get on with the things in your life that caused you to think about moving in the first place.
Call me if you want a market analysis of your home now - don't wait!!
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