Oil from the Gulf oil spill is unlikely to reach the Jersey Shore, experts on the New Jersey Gulf Spill Task Force told an environmental summit on July 26.
Bob Connell of the Bureau of Marine Water Monitoring, N.J. Department of Environmental Protection (DEP), shared positive news with the audience gathered at Monmouth University for an environmental summit organized by Sen. Sean Kean (R-13th District).
"The take-home message is: it would take a series of unlikely events for us to see a Gulf oil impact on the Jersey shoreline," he said.
"Having said that," he continued. "we already saw a couple of unlikely events happen; no one back in April thought that this spill would have gone on as long as it did."
Connell said that no oil has yet been detected passing through the Florida straits or entering the Gulf Stream.
"If it does get through the Florida Straits and into the Gulf Stream," Connell said, "these are some of the fastest surface ocean currents in the world. It could be at Cape Hatteras, [N.C.] in about two weeks.
"The good news is that when it gets to Cape Hatteras, the Gulf Stream heads east into the ocean and it would take most of the Gulf oil with it."
Connell elaborated on the next unlikely event that would be required to get oil to the Shore.
"If, in that Gulf Stream flow, an eddy pinches off and that eddy also contains some of the oil, those eddies tend to head back toward the mid-Atlantic states so they could bring the oil with them."
According Josh Kohut, professor and oceanographer with Rutgers University, the oil would encounter yet another hurdle.
Kohut said that the ocean is 6,000 feet deep where the eddies form and the continental shelf along the Jersey Shore is only 300 feet deep.
"These eddies are way deeper than 300 feet, so it would be like if I was an eddy and I'm just bumping up against a table; I can't get onto the table, but there are pieces of me that could," he said.
As Kohut summarized, "First of all, the oil has to get out into the Gulf Stream, then it has to get into one of these eddies, then that eddy has to move [toward the coast] and spill some of its water onto the shelf."
Connell said that October would be the earliest any oil could reach the Jersey coast.
"The tar balls are what we would most likely see, if anything, up in the Jersey area. We will not be seeing the slicks like you see in the south," he added.
Kohut said that as fall approaches, the strongest currents flow away from shore and to the south.
"The encouraging thing is right now, especially with the eddies [in the Gulf] pushing further to the west, the chances are getting smaller and smaller each day," he said.
"As unlikely as it is, we still want to be prepared for that unlikely event," Kohut said.B
ob Van Fossen, Emergency Management, NJDEP, said that state, county and municipal entities have prepared a comprehensive reaction plan should any oil approach the coastline.
Report by BY ANDREW DAVISON, Atlanticville
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