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Housing Market Grows 1.9% Across America

By
Education & Training with -- www.matthewferrara.com

Using data from reliable real estate sources, we're pleased to announce today that the housing market is rising all across America! Imagine that.

With the help of a spreadsheet and an averaging formula, the housing experts at Matthew Ferrara & Company have been able to do what the National Association of REALTORS and other industry analysts have not: We've found the housing recovery!

Now, before you turn away and think this is some kind of trick, let us assure you that we could not be more serious. In fact, we're going to show you our data, and let you decide whether or not housing is better off than widely reported by main stream media.

You might even decide that - contrary to popular belief - there's another story about housing in America after all!

First, our methodology: Like many analysts, we went to an industry aggregator for raw data. We selected Zillow.com because you can download the market data directly from their site, in a nice, easy to read spreadsheet. No secret societies or magical memberships required to access the "multi list" system. Just some plain old data, in about 34 seconds.

Now, some readers might be thinking that Zillow's data isn't as "good" as data by "trusted" sources. Considering most MLS data is only as good as the agents who are entering it, and then it's only as "real" as the prices set by sellers, we'll just go with the Zillow data for our purposes here, and leave it to you to decide to dismiss the conclusions. Remember, many consumers - and main stream media -  certainly do not.

We clicked on Zillow's real estate market reports, then clicked the "download" function at the top, to receive this spreadsheet. On the first tab, we browsed the "Region" names which referred to major "city metros" and in the "Quarter over Quarter" column, we looked for positive values above 0.5%.  We chose over 0.5% to account for markets that were holding steady (we were looking for growth). We compared quarters, because comparing to a year ago in a recession is absurd.

We then proceeded to select 30 cities. Here they are:

Albany Metro NY 1.53%
Boston Metro MA 3.20%
Boulder Metro CO 2.13%
Chicago Metro IL 1.57%
Cleveland Metro OH 1.50%
Denver Metro CO 0.98%
Des Moines Metro IA 2.33%
Durham Metro NC 2.27%
Gainesville Metro FL 1.82%
Greenville Metro SC 2.34%
Hartford Metro CT 2.18%
Knoxville Metro TN 1.66%
Little Rock Metro AR 3.99%
Los Angeles Metro CA 2.18%
Modesto Metro CA 2.23%
Napa Metro CA 0.86%
Naples Metro FL 0.50%
Oklahoma City Metro OK 4.65%
Pittsburgh Metro PA 1.08%
Richmond Metro VA 1.64%
Rochester Metro NY 2.07%
Rockford Metro IL 1.15%
Sacramento Metro CA 0.96%
San Diego Metro CA 2.94%
San Francisco Metro CA 2.03%
Spokane Metro WA 1.38%
St. Louis Metro MO 1.63%
Washington Metro DC 1.02%
Winston-Salem Metro NC 2.39%
Worcester Metro MA 1.22%



There are a few notes to add before we discuss our conclusions.

First, it's possible the data in this report was skewed higher because of the Federal tax credits which are still "lingering" in the system. However, that problem infects any other data used by main stream media today, so we'll just count ourselves equal. Next, you're probably noticing that we've substituted some cities for others that you hear about in the media all the time. Yes, the market was down in Fresno, CA, but we found others in the same state that were up. Why pick the down ones? Same for Florida, which remarkably saw nearly 2% home value growth in the last quarter in Gainesville.

Little Rock and Oklahoma City are downright booming!

If you average up the growth rates, you get a positive 1.9%. In some pretty major cities, all across America. In other words, "the" housing market grew nearly 2% in the last quarter, in plenty of places that plenty of people might like to live. Sure, if you averaged ALL of the metros listed in the spreadsheet, it was probably negative; but why focus on the negative?

We think of it like the national" unemployment rate, which stands at 10%, while the Maryland rate is 7.4%. Shouldn't that be part of the unemployment story? All too often it isn't.

Maybe that's what makes a local REALTOR so valuable: They know the rest of the story.

Some readers might think we just "spun" the numbers. You can make statistics look like anything you want, they'll say. You can find any conclusion in the data if you look hard enough. But does that make the conclusion any less valid? At the least, doesn't that at least mean we should try to tell all of the stories when it comes to complex issues like unemployment, health care and housing?

Just imagine if the story over the last two years had been something like this:

"[Blaring headline] In some parts of America, local conditions have cause a serious downturn in the local housing market! Nearly 33 counties in the country are experiencing precipitous drops in housing value, and some owners who put little down or chose exotic finance options are losing their home to foreclosure. [Cut to bank-blaming and mustache-twirling segment.] [Cut back to news repeater.] On the other hand, in plenty of communities all across America, house values remain steady and even growing, where local conditions permit. [Go to commercial for antacid.]"

Just imagine.

Comments (5)

Lina Robertson
AMAX Real Estate - Springfield, MO
REALTORĀ® Serving Springfield, Nixa and Ozark, MO

Ha!  Very nicely written...and reflective of what we're seeing here in the Springfield, MO, market.  Nicely done!  BTW...thanks for the info on Zillow.  I had no idea you could download their data.

Sep 08, 2010 01:48 AM
Adam R. Cohn
STANDARD MORTGAGE CO. - Delray Beach, FL
We actually get mortgages closed FAST!

Very nice blog, and great to hear some postive news for once!

Sep 08, 2010 01:51 AM
Don Sabinske
Don Sabinske, Sabinske & Associates Inc. - Zimmerman, MN
Sabinske & Associates Inc.

Well, you are relying on Zillow for your data, after all.   I would wish it were so, but I can't take it as fact.  Sorry. 

Sep 08, 2010 01:52 AM
Mike Carlier
Lakeville, MN
More opinions than you want to hear about.

It's a little confusing.  You are using quarterly data which I assume is the second quarter, April, May, June.  That wasn't a lingering effect from the tax credit, it was during the raging stampede to buy homes before the deadline. 

Although I would like to believe your conclusions, I'm afraid that, as President Raegan likely would have surmised, the rate of increase in the decrease has perhaps been temporarily decreased.  Yes, April, May and June were very good for transactions.  So?

Sep 08, 2010 02:21 AM
Matthew Ferrara
-- www.matthewferrara.com - Boston, MA
Matthew Ferrara & Company

Thanks, everyone for your comments. For those with skepticism about Zillow data, I just hope you have the same skepticism about your MLS data..... just saying.... :>

Sep 08, 2010 02:25 AM