WHAT'S THE PROBLEM WITH THE REAL ESTATE MARKET? VIEWS OF A CONTRARIAN - Chapter 2

Chapter 1 - WHAT'S THE MATTER WITH THE MORTGAGE MARKET?  - 8/22/2007
THE TROUBLE STARTS WITH REAL ESTATE AGENTS

Chapter 2 -  WHO'S RESPONSIBLE FOR OVERSIGHT OF THE MORTGAGE MARKET?  - 8/26/2007
THE TROUBLE IS "MONITORED" BY THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE
THE FEDERAL RESERVE FAILED IN IT'S MISSION TO SUPERVISE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

12 USC; ch. 6, 38 Stat. 251 (December 23, 1913) Federal Reserve Act [Mission]:
To provide for the establishment of Federal reserve banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes. 

OVERSIGHT IS CRITICAL TO PRESERVING THE INTEGRITY OF THE MORTGAGE MARKET.  Why do we need oversight of the mortgage industry?  Because the consumer cannot be expected to understand the variety and complexity of mortgage instruments offered by the mortgage industry today.  Real estate agents cannot be expected to understand the variety and complexity of mortage instruments offered by the mortgage industry today.  See:  Joint Center For Housing Studies PRESS RELEASE - April 26, 2007, which says in part:

"Many of today's innovative loan structures seek to provide mortgages that help prospective homebuyers overcome affordability barriers, yet the push-marketing of inappropriate mortgage products to unsuspecting borrowers has the potential to harm individual families and spark a wave of foreclosures that can destabilize already fragile neighborhoods."

THE FEDERAL RESERVE FIDDLED AND "MONITORED" WHILE THE MORTGAGE INDUSTRY BURNED     

Testimony of Roger T. Cole
Director, Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
Mortgage markets
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate

The Federal Reserve is concerned about recent developments in mortgage markets and has been closely monitoring the effects of these developments on the financial health of mortgage borrowers and lending institutions.  Regarding safety and soundness of the banking system, less than half of subprime loans have been originated by federally regulated banking institutions.  To date, the deterioration in housing credit has been focused on the relatively narrow market for subprime, adjustable-rate mortgages, which represent fewer than one out of ten outstanding mortgages.  Borrower performance deterioration in the subprime market has been concentrated in loans made very recently, especially those originated in late 2005 and 2006, and problems in those loans started to become apparent in the data during the latter half of 2006.

                                                 *  *  *  * 

Supervisory Guidance
Over the past several years, the Federal Reserve has been monitoring these developments and has adjusted our supervisory activities accordingly.  Banking supervisors expect our regulated institutions to be mindful of the risks posed by new and expanding business activities.  The principles of sound lending have been with us for generations and most of the guidance we issue is to remind bankers what they should already be doing.

=======================End Quote===============================

"The principles of sound lending have been with us for generations"????   Of course they have.  Our grandparents saved for years to accumulate cash for a 20%-30% down payment on their home purchase.  The mortgage loan with often with the neighborhood bank who had very conservative guidelines.  OF COURSE they had conservative loan guidelines - they loaned depositors money and held the mortgages in their portfolio.  The bank had significant risk and they were cautious lenders.

Conclusions?  Reading the full text of this testimony, one cannot help but get the feeling that the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve have been working hard writing speeches and preparing for testimony before Congressional committees who provide "oversight" of the Federal Reserve. 

In the 1950s, things changed with the introduction of Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI).  Mortgages for homes with less than 20% down were financed with the 80/10/10 with 10% down.  I remember it well.  Our buyers would pay a full year of PMI insurance at settlement and then have a monthly mortgage payment including the payment on the 80% first trust mortgage and a payment for the 2nd trust loan with a PMI monthly payment of about .0062%.  Then we got to the 80/15/5 with 5% down.  Finally, in the 21st Century, we were offered the 80/20 with ZERO down.  PMI insured the loans and everything was fine.  Shucks, these conventional instruments were better than FHA, which still required 3% of the borrower's own money.  Appraisals were easier and the conventional appraisers didn't notice nasty stuff like chipping and peeling paint on homes built prior to 1978 when lead based paint could still be present.  During the hot real estate market in the years 2002-2006, you couldn't get an FHA loan accepted by a seller in many areas.  That 100% conventional loan was great.  Or, was it? 

Conclusions?  Reading the full text of this testimony, one cannot help but get the feeling that the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve have been working hard writing speeches and preparing for testimony before Congressional committees who provide "oversight" of the Federal Reserve.   

COMING SOON - CONGRESSIONAL OVERSIGHT
 

Courtesy:  Homefinders.com

 

35 Comments on WHAT'S THE PROBLEM WITH THE REAL ESTATE MARKET? VIEWS OF A CONTRARIAN - Chapter 2

Lenn,  Let's hope they start to do and not to just speculate.

08/26/2007 08:02 AM by Frances C. Rokicki, Broker~Mentor (Fran Rokicki Realty, LLC)


Lenn, how comforting to know that while those in the "trenches" may have had a twinge of "is this a good loan for these people with a huge increase in a few years", others in a place of power were observing the debacle, as well, wondering about the outcome.  Hindsight is a bitch, in this case...looking forward to part 3!

08/26/2007 08:03 AM by Options Realty


Frances.  Thanks for commenting.  I have no hope of any improvement from the Federal Reserve.  If you listed to their speeches, they are masters of saying a lot of "nothing".  They are the exemplification of "governmenteeze".  Is that a word?

Laurie.  I got a bit off outline with this following a visit with a builder yesterday where we discussed the above.  But, it was fresh in my mind and I wanted to get it down before I forgot the theme.

Thanks.

08/26/2007 08:07 AM by Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Real Estate


Lenn, during those "boom" years I was still pushing and promoting the FHA/VA products to my buyer clients and very very few if any would listen to me about them.  They heard SO much about the other products and how great they were (from their parents- to their neighbors- to the lenders) that they didn't want to hear about an "old fashioned" product.

Government "oversight" scares me.  I'm sick of the rhetoric and I know there is going to be some overboard regulations put into place that aren't going to help at all.

08/26/2007 08:30 AM by Kris Wales-A partner for your real estate needs in Macomb County MI (RE/MAX Advantage 1, Inc.)


The problem as I see it in my state of Arizona is this:  the education, testing and ongoing oversight at the State level for cosmotology is significant.  The is NO educational, testing, competency check or otherwise for any Loan Officer (Chase, Wells, or my own little shop) in the State of Arizona.  I can hire anyone off the street, print her or him a card, and say "Here's your desk, here's your phone.  Good luck, Chuck.  You're on your own."

08/26/2007 08:43 AM by Mike Jones (Tucson Mortgage Company, LLC)


Lenn:

The coddling of the consumer needs to stop.  This leads to frivolous lawsuits which runs counter to economic development and progress.  There needs to be responsibility on the part of the consumer. If you don't understand it, don't sign it.

08/26/2007 08:48 AM by ยป Bill Burress Nationwide Mortgage Originator


Very well thought and well written article.  As a Realtor, and a Mortgage Broker, I was amazed at how easy the latter was to obtain! Best of luck to you! 

08/26/2007 09:05 AM by Main Line Real Estate - Christopher Benedict (RE/MAX Main Line)


I fear congressional oversight. I have come to the conclusion that they are a House Of Clowns and incapable of protecting the public good.

Mike Jones makes a very good point. We need to require loan originators to show some competence and have a fiduciary relationship with the buyer. These are things that need to be dealt with at a state level.

Lenders and lending officers need also to be held to the "Prudent Man" rule. What prudent individual would come up with some of the loans we have seen? Or lend to some of the people now in trouble?

All persons making real estate loans, or investing in real estate should be required to study the history of the Great Depression and its causes. They should be required to relate that history to real estate speculation with zero down, neg am etc. Only when competent would they be allowed to play.

08/26/2007 10:00 AM by Jim Little, Your Sun City Arizona Realtor (Ken Meade Realty)


lenn, I t will be interesting to see how al this unfolds. Personally I think the feds need to stay out of it and let the market run it's course. It may take awhile but in the long run we'll be better prepared in the future. Hey maybe the consumer will actually learn to read their paper work and quit spending their equity!

08/26/2007 10:07 AM by Bryant Tutas-Tutas Towne Realty, Inc



Lenn, during those "boom" years I was still pushing and promoting the FHA/VA products to my buyer clients and very very few if any would listen to me about them.  They heard SO much about the other products and how great they were (from their parents- to their neighbors- to the lenders) that they didn't want to hear about an "old fashioned" product.
Government "oversight" scares me.  I'm sick of the rhetoric and I know there is going to be some overboard regulations put into place that aren't going to help at all.
Kris.  Me too.  But, try to get a home seller with 6 offers on a house select a contract with FHA or VA financing when they've got 2 or 3 with no inspections, priced over list, which is really difficult to do with government loans.  We just couldn't get government appraisals.


The problem as I see it in my state of Arizona is this:  the education, testing and ongoing oversight at the State level for cosmotology is significant.  The is NO educational, testing, competency check or otherwise for any Loan Officer (Chase, Wells, or my own little shop) in the State of Arizona.  I can hire anyone off the street, print her or him a card, and say "Here's your desk, here's your phone.  Good luck, Chuck.  You're on your own."
Mike.  Agreed.  The training and testing for loan officers in some areas, most areas is even more pathetic than for real estate agents and that is really saying something.

Lenn:

The coddling of the consumer needs to stop.  This leads to frivolous lawsuits which runs counter to economic development and progress.  There needs to be responsibility on the part of the consumer. If you don't understand it, don't sign it.
Bill.  Agreed.  Unfortunately, a lot of buyers are simply not capable of understanding what they are signing.  I've sat with buyers looking at GFE's that they were ready to sign and asked the loan officer, "What is this $1,500 under DocPrep for???".  I want consumers to know what they're signing too.  I especially want real estate agents to know what their buyers are signing.

08/26/2007 10:59 AM by Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Real Estate




Very well thought and well written article.  As a Realtor, and a Mortgage Broker, I was amazed at how easy the latter was to obtain! Best of luck to you! 
Christopher.  I didn't understand what you said, but thanks for stopping by.

I fear congressional oversight. I have come to the conclusion that they are a House Of Clowns and incapable of protecting the public good.

Mike Jones makes a very good point. We need to require loan originators to show some competence and have a fiduciary relationship with the buyer. These are things that need to be dealt with at a state level.

Lenders and lending officers need also to be held to the "Prudent Man" rule. What prudent individual would come up with some of the loans we have seen? Or lend to some of the people now in trouble?

All persons making real estate loans, or investing in real estate should be required to study the history of the Great Depression and its causes. They should be required to relate that history to real estate speculation with zero down, neg am etc. Only when competent would they be allowed to play.
Jim.  I, too, fear Congressional oversight.  My point in these articles is to show folks that the guidelines are and ALWAYS HAVE BEEN in place.  They have not been enforced.  We don't need any more *&%$&*(  laws.  What we need is some hard work on the part of regulators, which has been pathetic.  I'm going to show how lazy they've been in a future post.

lenn, I t will be interesting to see how al this unfolds. Personally I think the feds need to stay out of it and let the market run it's course. It may take awhile but in the long run we'll be better prepared in the future. Hey maybe the consumer will actually learn to read their paper work and quit spending their equity!
Bryant.  IMO, if the "fix" is left to the folks now in charge, we'll get something like the useless "Truth In Lending".  We'll see.

08/26/2007 11:03 AM by Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Real Estate


Lenn: “…yet the push-marketing of inappropriate mortgage products to unsuspecting borrowers has the potential to harm individual families and spark a wave of foreclosures that can destabilize already fragile neighborhoods.” [Emphasis mine] this is the part of this thing that I have been (from time-to-time) railing on about for months. This is what is currently ravaging our inner-city neighborhoods—and doesn’t yet seem to be subsiding.

Many people are simply not sophisticated enough to fully understand what they were getting into—just look at the jargon thrown around here in AR when the topic is discussed. It will take some serious rethinking about how business is done by all associated professionals, to help ensure that even the unsophisticated among us understand what they are getting into.

Jay

08/26/2007 12:21 PM by Jay Merton & Medford Ambrose, the Codgers (Retired Handymen)


I agree with Bryan Tutas, plus I believe the news media needs to clean their noses and stay out of what they really do not know what is going on. They think they need to report for others to decide. Come on they are putting the wrong ideas out there and hurting even themselves and they do not see that their own homes values are now hurting.

08/26/2007 03:02 PM by Susan Trombley Re/Max Broker Raleigh NC & Surrounding Areas (Re/Max Hometown)


Lenn,

I don't blame the LO's as much as I blame their employers. They are the ones that set company policy and establish lending practices. Fannie and Freddie only offer 'guidelines'. Lenders themselves approve and fund the individual loans. They, like Title Insurers, became overly competitive and were afraid to say NO. Now they are paying the price, along with misinformed consumers who were guided down the wrong path. Bail out the consumer, punish the perpetrators. Then you'll see how fast our business will turn around. Thanks,   Fran

08/26/2007 03:21 PM by Fran 'The Title Man' Gaspari Title Insurance-PA & NJ (Patriot Land Transfer, Inc.)


Enforcement!  That's the key....for everyone involved in the real estate industry. Rules. I love rules to follow.....what's so hard about that? Will await part three. (I'm learning bunches here)

08/26/2007 03:25 PM by Celeste "SALLY" Cheeseman (RA), HAWAII Real Estate & HAWAII Relocation (Century 21 Liberty Homes -Mililani, Hawaii)


Jay.

You identified with what I thought was the most telling of the research for this article. 

"...yet the push-marketing of inappropriate mortgage products to unsuspecting borrowers

"push-marketing"

That phrase jumped out at me like a jack-in-the-box.  Push-Marketing is exactly what goes on.  The instruments that are the most profitable are the ones advertised.  They are not the best for the consumer, in any particular scenario, but they work to bring the consumer in.  After that, the consumer is told whatever they need to hear to stick with that lender. 

"No closing costs" is what's being peddled in my area.  Consumers don't even know what closing costs are. They look at a Good Faith Estimate and their eyes glaze over. 

08/26/2007 03:30 PM by Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Real Estate



I agree with Bryan Tutas, plus I believe the news media needs to clean their noses and stay out of what they really do not know what is going on. They think they need to report for others to decide. Come on they are putting the wrong ideas out there and hurting even themselves and they do not see that their own homes values are now hurting.
Susan.  The news media folks live in rented apartments in NYC.


Lenn,
I don't blame the LO's as much as I blame their employers. They are the ones that set company policy and establish lending practices. Fannie and Freddie only offer 'guidelines'. Lenders themselves approve and fund the individual loans. They, like Title Insurers, became overly competitive and were afraid to say NO. Now they are paying the price, along with misinformed consumers who were guided down the wrong path. Bail out the consumer, punish the perpetrators. Then you'll see how fast our business will turn around. Thanks,   Fran
Fran. Thanks for commenting.  I haven't gotten to LOs yet.  I've just touched on (1) real estate agents and (2) regulators.  There's plenty of responsibility to go around.

Enforcement!  That's the key....for everyone involved in the real estate industry. Rules. I love rules to follow.....what's so hard about that? Will await part three. (I'm learning bunches here)
Sally.  Thanks.  Rules are good.  If the rules, guidelines, regulations had been followed and the violators put out of business, we wouldn't be in the mess we're in, and we are in a real mess.

08/26/2007 03:36 PM by Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Real Estate


Shucks, these conventional instruments were better than FHA, which still required 3% of the borrower's own money. 

It's funny how it became a badge of honor to NOT have any money in your home.

08/26/2007 04:49 PM by Chris Lengquist, RIPS (Keller Williams Realty)


Chris.  You are so right. 

We called it "leverage".  Why put your money in a house at 5.5% when you could make 12% in the stock market. 

Or, buy a new home with Zero down and leverage the equity on the market value of the property.  It made sense until about July 2005.

08/26/2007 05:01 PM by Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Real Estate


Lenn: Excellent thoughts!

Many home sellers today are caught in the same "margin" and leverage bind that buried so many stock market speculators several years ago. In both scenarios, lenders made the borrowing easy and and hyped the market. 

It will be interesting to see if useful and enforceable regulations result from our current mess--instead of more pages of small print disclosure that few take the time to read.

08/26/2007 06:36 PM by Roberta Murphy ~ Carlsbad Real Estate (Villa Sotheby's International Realty)


Lenn- Great series so far.. I'll be watching for the rest of the story.  The problem wasn't so much the loan products as the fact that they were misused. Many of these products were created for a specific and small niche market but somehow found their way into the general market.  I had clients who were financially responsible who used 100% down or no doc loans and will never default.. But these people had a strong financial background with good credit .  

 

These loans should never have wound up with Joe & Mary and their fake income and garbage credit.  The fact that these loans were heavily pushed by various lenders to unqualified borrowers should be the responsibility of those lenders and if they have to eat the loans that's just too bad.  At some point the credit market has to take responsibility for theri lack of responsibility. The government should stay out of it and let the market make the corrections that are needed. 

08/26/2007 07:03 PM by Manhattan Beach CA/ e-PRO..... Kaye Thomas... (Real Estate West)


Roberta.  Thanks for commenting.  I'm sure we'll get more paperwork out of this mess.  But, where were the enforcers of the paperwork that we have now??  More paperwork isn't the solution unless the regulators do their jobs. 

Kaye.  You're absolutely right.  Niche products became mainstream.  But, guidelines had to be bent to fit so many into these products. 

Bob and Carolin.  Thanks for dropping by. 

08/27/2007 06:28 AM by Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Real Estate


Buyer Beware...Love money and Trust Few....would the day never come to be "adjusted" ????

08/27/2007 06:30 AM by Sally & David Hanson, Southeastern Wisconsin Realtors (First Weber Group)


Sally and David.

Thanks for commenting.

I believe a lot of the coming foreclosures were investor purchased properties who thought they could buy with minimum cash out and sell right after built out or short occupancy. 

They got caught with a short term loan when the market came to a screeching stop in July 2005.  EEEEEEkkkk. 

 

08/27/2007 06:38 AM by Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Real Estate


Kaye,

Amen!  The problem isn't the loan program, but the abuse.  The highly exagerated incomes and poor credit history should not have been "exceptions" for approval of 100% stated incomes.  I met yesterday with a Seller who just a few months ago, was given a 100% cash out refi on a $600,000 house - his real job, manager of a fast food restaurant.  The lender stated his income at $12,000 per month, he now has house payments of $5,500 PITI when his actual income is $2900/mo.  This is only one example of hundreds of similar scenarios.

Even though I now have a short sale listing, this scenario really angers me.  The lender made 5 points on the loan and is now out of the business, leaving the borrower hanging.  Yes, I have a short-sale listing, but I would rather these people be happy homeowners able to make their mortgage payments. 

Thousands of people purchased homes with 100% financing and will continue to make their payments.  It is a good program and broadens homeownership opportunities for qualified buyers, not for people who could not, and cannot, afford it anyway.

08/27/2007 09:52 AM by Valerie Van de Zilver


It seems that not much was learned with the savings and loan crisis of the '80's.  Everyone seems to be more reactive than pro-active.  I don't think a finger can be pointed in one direction concerning what is happening the the mortgage industry.  There are many players here.  From what I have gleaned from the wall street journal, the majority of these "bad loans" were made with those who are "flippers" and without proper disclosure to consumers --  I guess we will have to wait a while longer to get the entire picture, but I am surprised the regulators were too busy to see this one coming!  Perhaps, we should cut their salaries.

08/27/2007 10:03 AM by Joan Whitebook, ABR, e-Pro, CEBA (Buyer's Option Realty Services)


part of the problem, I believe, is that there are many banks that are culprits that want to throw the blame on brokers

the banks hide their culpability in the guise of fuzzy commercials and comfortable customer experiences in branches.

there should be more oversight on advertisements that lure in people - "When banks compete you win" "Secure Advantage Loan"

there are industries where you cannot advertise like that

08/27/2007 10:48 AM by Boca Raton Florida & Boynton Beach Florida Mortgage Loans


David.  I agree.  That was Jey Merton's savvy observation, "push marketing of innapropriate mortgage products", being one of the problems. 

I hear misleading mortgage loan ads daily.  I know that they are misleading.  Apparently, the consumer does not.  But, we know that, don't we??

 

08/27/2007 10:58 AM by Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Real Estate


Good loans~bad loans, FHA~leveraging your equity, The fed enforcing~the fed sitting idly by, congressional discretion~media disintermediation, Monday Night Football~The vapors, Lenn you are always able to get the most from a topic, love it!

08/27/2007 11:06 AM by Randy Lyon (Kettley and Company)


Hey Lenn...great insight.  Daniel Gross wrote a book on why bubbles are good for the economy, and I'm curious what you would say about it.  An article giving his reasons is found HERE.  The short version is that, just like with the tech boom and even the railroad over a hundred years ago, we were left with infrastcructure for better measured growth.  I'm not sure I'm buying it, but it leaves me a bit hopeful.

Your friend,

Joey

08/27/2007 10:34 PM by Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)


Hey Joey.

Do you see any other comments herein with links to the commentor's posts?????   No.  Please remove the links or I'll have to delete the comment.

Thanks.

Lenn

08/28/2007 06:19 AM by Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Real Estate


Hey Lenn,

Thanks again for teaching me about this 'social networking' thing...I modified my comments, but I left the link to the artcle from Daniel Gross because I thought it might add to the discussion...should I remove it?  It's not my post, but an economist that I sometimes read that I thought applied.  Let me know and I'll adjust it for you.  Take care!

Your friend,

Joey

08/28/2007 11:37 AM by Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)


Lenn, this isn't the first time that excesses and lax oversight have cost the American economy dearly.  In the 1920s, stocks could be purchased on a 10% margin.  In other words, you could purchase $1,000 worth of stocks while putting up only  $100.  When stock prices went down (due to a liquidity crisis, just like today) , stockholders got margin calls to put up more money, and the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s was the result.

If the Fed has been "monitoring" the risky mortgage products offered by lenders in the last couple of years, why didn't they take some action?  Monitoring does precious little good without action.

Good graphic, BTW.  Is it your own? 

 

08/31/2007 10:57 AM by Brian Schulman - Your Lancaster County, PA Real Estate Professional (Coldwell Banker Select Professionals)


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