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Consumer Confidence - IGNORING THE NEWS - Surging Ahead ?

By Lonn Dugan

Industry Observer

August 28, 2007 02:42 AM

FIRST, LET ME SAY THIS:
I know that we make our own luck and make our own markets. We have to keep our head out of the doom and gloom newscasts. I do not participate in water cooler whining about a down market... So far this year was shaping up as my best ever... so I have been keeping my attituded where it needs to be.

THE NEWS IS FINALLY GETTING TO ME
Consumer confidence seems to be withering with this recent onslaught of negative news in mortgage and housing sector. I confess to having finally been at least dampened by the overwhelming sea of bad news in the mortgage sector, what that is doing to housing prices and sales volume. Most distressing is that the predictions of a turn around this fourth quarter are being revised to late 2008 or even 2009. 2009 !!!!!!

WONDERING, ARE YOU SEEING THIS TOO?
I have had three really good buyers drop out of sight in recent weeks. Three listing side deals also fell apart due to mortgage underwriting changes AFTER PRE-APPROVAL, or due to withering consumer confidence - or both. I blame it on the feeding frenzy promulgated by the network news shouting about mortgage meltdowns... I think it is finally getting to me. Darn - I hate that... Don't they realize they are making things worse by only reporting one side of the story and sensationalizing it?

THE TURNAROUND STARTS WITH ME
Have to be more positive... Let it start with me! I know all the dialogue... I believe it... YES - ITS A GREAT TIME TO BUY... Prices are terrific! Sellers should benefit by taking what they can get (even if a small loss) and then profit by SAVING BIG on their next house.

BUT IT'S WEARING A BIT THIN LATELY
So, Umm.... could use a little help here. FEEL FREE to post why you think the market will be strong for those who work a good plan this fall and winter ; )

Let's encourage each other!

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Simon Conway

Orlando Area Real Estate Services - Orlando, FL

Every market is different but if you look at the last national consumer confidence figures you will see a huge jump!

Aug 28, 2007 02:50 AM

Jason Romrell

Business Attorney and Success Advisor - Los Angeles, CA

Here's what I think...your attitude will keep you from drowning like so many other professionals. If you feel the pinch, imagine what the doom and gloom crowd is feeling. At least you're staying on the top of the pack with a positive attitude...and your clients will feel it. I think being informed is a great tool to help you stay ahead of the pack...but use the bad news to your advantage and KEEP THE POSITIVE ATTITUDE!! :)

Aug 28, 2007 02:54 AM

Jeanne Kear

Countrywide Home Loans - Barryville, NY

I think people should stay positive this can not last too long and the media always takes a small paragraph and blows it up it's not as bad as the media says it is

Aug 28, 2007 02:57 AM

Jim Crawford

Long & Foster - Fredericksburg, VA

Jim Crawford Broker Associate Fredericksburg VA

Great post the turnaround does begin with me. So on the listing side no overpriced listings, clean and neutral homes only. On the buyers side... only qualified buyers get in the car or get to see any property. I take no ones word that they have a loan officer, and are qualified. The loan rules are changing as I write this response.

Aug 28, 2007 02:59 AM

Lonn Dugan

Toledo, OH

Simon:

MANUFACTURING HEADLINES to counter the news is a cool move, to maintain attitude, but.... : )

facts are facts.... and I like to stay fairly close to them ; )

Here is what CNN says:

Confidence takes biggest hit in 2 years - Problems in mortgage, housing and stock markets have American consumers less confident about economy.

Full Story > http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/28/news/economy/confidence/index.htm?postversion=2007082810

Aug 28, 2007 03:10 AM

Lonn Dugan

Toledo, OH

Jim:

The supply of clean and neutral homes seems to be drying up around here...

I used to carry 25 - 30 listings. Sold a BUNCH of them this spring... Have been stuck at about 15 - 20 ever since, and quality is lower.

Our NEW listing count is actually down over one year ago, for the first time in YEARS....

The smarter Potential Sellers (meaning the ones who clean and neutralize) seem to be holding off....

Anybody else seeing this?

Aug 28, 2007 03:18 AM

Nathan Blair

Salt Lake City, UT

We can let facts drive us up or bring us down. We should pay attention to instilling confidence in our own consumers, not worrying about what the news is saying.

Aug 28, 2007 03:21 AM

Lonn Dugan

Toledo, OH

Nathan:

That's it. YES.... That's the spirit... Facts are facts but they don't have to drive us.

Now please continue...

EXACTLY HOW are you instilling confidence in your clients these days?

Aug 28, 2007 03:59 AM

Hugh Krone

Weichert Referral Associates - Hamburg, NJ

Realtor, Sussex County NJ

Reminds me of the saying" I'm doing well don't cofuse me with the facts". If all these so caled experts really knew anything wouldn't they all be multimillionaires by now. I say we just kep doing what we know is right and surge ahead.

Aug 28, 2007 04:24 AM

R. B. "Bob" Mitchell - Loan Officer Raleigh/Durham

Bank of England (NMLS#418481) - Raleigh, NC

Bob Mitchell (NMLS#1046286)

I like your point about the sellers being able to save the money that they lost on this home, when they buy a new one! I had never thought of that until it recently happened to me!

Bob Mitchell

ValueList Real Estate Services, Inc.

Aug 28, 2007 11:34 AM

Esko Kiuru

Bethesda, MD

Lonn,

The media has managed to spook the consumer real good over its reporting on the real estate and mortgage markets. News are news, yes, but they keep repeating the same old story. Prices are falling, which is good news for the buyer. Also, with dropping prices, the overall affordability is improving across the board. That's good news, too.

Aug 28, 2007 12:10 PM

Todd Clark - Retired

eXp Realty LLC - Tigard, OR

Principle Broker Oregon

I talk to my dad everyday and he says and hears the same thing the public does. Then he says why is everyone else complaining and you have nothing but good news every time I talk to you? I told him that I am positive, but realistic. I don't count on banks for all my business, if I did, I would be bankrupt. I saw this coming when I started in the business 3 and ½ years ago and I decided then, I better plan for it. I started to specialize in owner financing and lease options and boy has it paid off now that the mortgage industry is taking a nose dive.

Aug 28, 2007 05:16 PM

Gail MacMillan

Titusville, FL

When the going gets tough, the tough get going.
Keep your nose to the grindstone.
You get what you give.
Stay the course.

I've put on my blinders and I'm not looking around. I know my job and that's all
I'm going to focus on. But the rhetoric IS a little different because this IS a great
time to buy. I'm my own press release: WHEN THIS MARKET TURNS YOU WILL
NEVER SEE THESE PRICES AGAIN - what are you waiting for? It's not a bad market
for everyone. Keep a smile on your face and have some fun. Corrections are a
good thing - that's the big picture. I'm off to save a deal :-)

Aug 29, 2007 12:44 AM

Kelly Sibilsky

Licensed Through Referral Connection, LTD. - Lake Zurich, IL

Lonn, I used to hang around the Mainstreet message boards and when I noticed you and Jim Crawford here I was so excited! As for this post...keep your chin up. I am focusing on quality: listing quality properties and working with quality people and then concentrating on planting those seeds of success for the future. Keep your chin up!

Aug 29, 2007 01:17 PM

Lonn Dugan

Toledo, OH

Kelly: Thanks for feedback.

Yeah, I used to hang at mainstreet message boards, but RE/MAX is DESPERATELY in need of better messaging - blogging software.....

Glad to know Jim and I inspired you. Actually just really honored to be mentioned in the same breath as the great Jim Crawford. Wow.... That will take your breath away for a minute... When I grow up, I want to be..... nevermind.... we don't want to take his breath away too, not all in one post ; )

Aug 31, 2007 01:36 AM