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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU KICK THE AMERICAN CONSUMER UNDER THE BUS??

By
Real Estate Agent with Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate 303829;0225082372

INSPIRED BY JOHN MULKEY'S ECONOMIC FORCAST FOR 2011, Housing and Economic Predictions for 2011 and Beyond

JOHN HAS A VERY NEGATIVE FORECAST FOR THE HOUSING INDUSTRY.

SADLY, Lenn's forecast is even MORE NEGATIVE.  I agree with John's comments fully, but I would add a critical element that will negatively affect the economy and the housing industry for years to come. 

LOSS OF CONSUMER CREDIT.  The loss of credit by all consumers who experienced a foreclosure, a short sale or a bankruptcy will take many years to cure.   Some consumer segments may recover sooner because they can be be fueled by cash purchases or higher intrest credit.  Housing is rarely a cash purchase and guidelines for mortgage loans is tighter than it's been in 5 years and is gettinHousingg tighter.

FAULTY FOCUS.  The government in it's prognostications, machinations manipulations and crafty schemes looks at the economy from the top down; Wall Street, banks, industry profits, home buying programs, subsidies, etc.

HOUSING FUELS THE ECONOMY.  However, the American economy has always been consumer driven, from the bottom up.  Further, housing and the employment that it supports, the creation of updated stock and creation of infrastructure, etc., has always been the engine that fueled the American economy.  Home sales fuel the economy through the many industries that it supports; furniture and fixtures, appliances, building materials, maintenance supplies and more.

THE ELEMENTS FOR A HOUSING INDUSTRY RECOVERY ARE NOT ON THE HORIZON. 

WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT A FEW YEARS TO SEE A RECOVERY IN THE ECONOMY.  The housing industry will then be poised for a roaring rebound. 

I CAN'T WAIT!!!

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Comments (78)

Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Jackie. That is one of the most disgraceful policies in the country, forcing a home owner to create arrears in order to sell.  Ruin your credit and then I can have a boot on your neck.

Bruce.  Me too.  We are slow, but not like some aras and we haven't lost that much value when compared to Florida and other places.

Mary.  I'll be doing my part.

Phil.  Ah ha!  You awakened from that dream, didn't you???

John.  I suspect that foreclosures and short sales are not the percentage in Maine that they are in some areas.

Glenn.  You bet.  I join you.

Marian.  We'll roll.  Sadly, I believe that we've been rolled.

Gordon.  I live through 2 previous real estate catastrophies.  Nothing like this.  This is bad.

Elizabeth.  Sorry, real estate agents can no longer afford to drink.

Irene.  I forgive wishful thinking on the part of consumers.  Realtor folks need to know better.

Gene.  That makes a lot of sense to me.  The question is.. . . . . . what will they do and will it cause more trouble???

Aaron.  I agree 100%.

Greg.  I believe that the government decided to help the banks and Wall St. for their own future beneift.  Cronyism is it's absolute worse.

 

 

 

 

 

Sep 23, 2010 11:54 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland
Thanks ReBloggers. Re-blogged by 3 agents Strauch Nathan (Print My Real Estate .com) Ray Henson (Keller Williams Lic. #00949880) Fran Gatti - Realtor®, CDPE®, RDCPro®, Crescent City CA Real Estate (RE/MAX Coastal Redwoods)
Sep 23, 2010 11:54 AM
Gene Mundt, IL/WI Mortgage Originator - FHA/VA/Conv/Jumbo/Portfolio/Refi
NMLS #216987, IL Lic. 031.0006220, WI Licensed. APMC NMLS #175656 - New Lenox, IL
708.921.6331 - 40+ yrs experience

Lenn:  Seems to me if you like differing views .. you have an odd way of showing that when you tell me to go write my own blog ... with my differing views.  I'm sorry if I offended you.  Was not meant that way ... truly it was not, but just didn't totally agree with you or many of the following comments. 

We do disagree on the political obviously, but why didn't you tell the others that agreed with you to go write their own blog ... if you like good conversation and dialogue?  Granted mine was lengthier, but it was still at least polite when expressing my .. differences.

Gene M

 

Sep 23, 2010 01:07 PM
Sandra Kahle
Keller Williams First Coast Realty - Jacksonville, FL

I think Mike Saunders has something.  I googled Cloward-Piven and came up with this

http://www.infowars.com/obama-the-cloward-piven-strategy-and-the-new-world-order/

I just heard this week about the Bilderberg Group which Michele Obama supposedly attended this year.  Google it and you will really get into the world wide conspiracy groove - or scary reality.

We definitely need the private sector free to generate REAL jobs instead of wasting resources on government created smoke and mirror jobs that are here today and gone tomorrow and result in zero production of goods to improve our import/export deficit.

And let us not forget that while 43 was in office there was a democratic controlled congress getting fat off of the Fanny Freddy fiasco.  Throw out both parties, get business minded people in congress, establish term limits and get rid of full retirement after they serve one term.  There are definitely better ways to resolve the issues!

Sep 23, 2010 03:36 PM
Bristol Restoration
Bristol Restoration, Inc 661-294-1812 - Santa Clarita, CA
When you need it done right and done right now!

Since this has gotten a bit political, the following article should be of interest based on this topic;

http://www.infowars.com/social-engineering-bill-in-senate-will-force-you-into-city/

The current plan, based on this article is to move people back into a controlled environment- tenement housing- what better way to control then by credit, (only way to sell short-sale or renegotiate is to miss mortgage payments, thereby ruining your credit- oops can't do it now but your credit is still ruined) where the only place you can move is a government controlled housing project for the middle class. It has already passed the senate banking committee and on the way to passing in the senate.  Maybe the housing market will be slowed after-all. The latest; who now is getting "first dibs" on bank owned properties?  Our own government controlled social programs and municipalities.   

Hmmm. can you say The new S-E-C-T-I-O-N  E-I-G-H-T for people that lost their properties to foreclosure? 

Sep 23, 2010 04:44 PM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Erica.  HA! I don't believe the new credit card regs cover card holders who don't carry a large balance. 

Gene.  Comments are welcomed.  Telling me what to write is a waste of time. 

Sandra.  I agree completely with your solutions.  YES, I am a firm believer in conspiracies.  YES, I am paranoid.

Jerry.  Many of us do believe that the present folks in control favor moving folks out of owner/occupied housing and into the rental market (preferably government owned).  As I wrote some time ago, renters are easier to control than home owners.

 

 

Sep 24, 2010 12:25 AM
Manny Gonzalez
Negotiable Realty LLC - Chicago, IL

Sep 24, 2010 05:02 PM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland
Manny. HA! I love that.
Sep 24, 2010 10:16 PM
Ty Lacroix
Envelope Real Estate Brokerage Inc - London, ON

Lenn: In all the Economic 16 countries in the world, the housing market has stumbled and fingers get pointed. I cannot comment about any country but my own, and that is those who want economic reform cannot please everyone and sometimes short term pain is a long term healthy economy.

Ty

Sep 24, 2010 11:17 PM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

TY. You can't avoid repeating a disaster without identifying the cause of the first disaster.

Sep 24, 2010 11:29 PM
Karen Fiddler, Broker/Owner
Karen Parsons-Fiddler, Broker 949-510-2395 - Mission Viejo, CA
Orange County & Lake Arrowhead, CA (949)510-2395

I'm confused by all the negativity....haven't you heard that the Recession ended June 2009? We've been fine ever since, that's why we are all so wealthy and why the economy is soaring. Oh shoot....didn't you get the rose-colored-glasses which came with your 2009 1040 form? They are great! :)

Sep 28, 2010 07:29 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Karen.  Mine must have gotten lost in the mail.

Sep 28, 2010 09:29 AM
Dale Terry
Yadkinville, NC

 The housing sector was overbuilt for years and it will need to get rid of excess inventory.  Our young adults will not have the opportunity to purchase because of all the factors mentioned above.  Our aging population is not going to drive the markets anymore.  Big business understands this, that is why they are continuing to push jobs to other countries. There are 6 billion people to sell to there.  We have a dying economy and nobody wants to admit it, especially the politicians

Sep 30, 2010 10:07 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

#73.  The politicians don't want to admit it because they caused it with their corruption and graft.

Sep 30, 2010 11:08 PM
Liane Thomas, Top Listing Agent
Professional Realty Services® - Corona, CA
Bringing you Home!

Sadly we cannot fix the housing until Americans get back to work. In my area, construction was a huge sector of the job market and it has completely dried up. We hover around 14% unemployment, and higher "underemployment". Hoping for better times ahead, preparing for worse..... 

Oct 02, 2010 12:39 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Liane.   I still find it hard to accept that kind of economy in California.  But, it is true and recovery for housing is going to lag employment. 

Oct 02, 2010 06:46 AM
Jay Markanich
Jay Markanich Real Estate Inspections, LLC - Bristow, VA
Home Inspector - servicing all Northern Virginia

I'm sorry to say that I just saw this Lenn!  And VERY glad that I did.

Just like there was a housing bubble a few years ago, that burst, I think we are on the verge of a credit bubble.  Credit cannot go much lower.  When it does go as low as it can, nearly to 0%, and nobody is buying credit, it too will burst.

That will be a disaster this country has never experienced.  It will be dramatic.

Oct 10, 2010 12:44 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Jay.  Could happen.  If the fed decides to artificially inflate, all bets are off.

Oct 10, 2010 01:33 AM
Wayne B. Pruner
Oregon First - Tigard, OR
Tigard Oregon Homes for Sale, Realtor, GRI

The fundamentals suck right now, but when they improve, pent up demand will soar.

Oct 19, 2010 05:25 PM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Wayne.  But, but, but, with a much, much diminished pool of consumers. 

Oct 20, 2010 12:20 AM