Gilbert Home Prices and S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index for Metro Phoenix area.
I thought this report and graphs on Gilbert Home Prices and Phoenix area health from Cromford Report was interesting although a little wordy!
Today S&P/CaseShiller® published their regular monthly report about home prices. The latest figures for "July" are actually based on a three month rolling average, so sales prices were measured over the three months of May, June and July. Keep in Mind that this article is not just about Gilbert Home Prices but the whole metro area..
As such the pricing is between 8 and 22 weeks old, with a mean age of 15 weeks. Of course at the Cromford Report we don't use an index, we instead compute the average price per sq. ft. for monthly sales and we do this on a daily basis based on the ARMLS data. I did include some graghs to show some specific info on Gilbert Home Prices.
The mean age of the sales we are measuring is 2 weeks. We pay a small penalty in terms of absolute accuracy, since this data has not had much time to mature. However because we focus on speedy reporting, on the date of the publication of the S&P/Case-Shiller® report we have a 13 week advantage in timeliness. This stretches to 17 weeks by the time we reach the last Monday of the following month.
Despite the difference in timeliness, there has always been a strong correlation between the S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Index and our $/SF measurements. In fact for the mathematically minded we can report a correlation coefficient of 0.9923.
We can therefore forecast with good confidence what the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is likely to do over the next 2 months, since we have already measured pricing for almost all of that reporting period.
For the Phoenix metro, the latest S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Index is 110.30. Our average price per sq. ft for sales in May, June & July is $90.89. For June, July & August we measured $88.59, so we expect the S&P/Case-Shiller® Index for Phoenix to fall about 2.5% to 107.49 when next month's number is reported on October 26. If You would like more specific community info on Gilbert Home Prices please contact me direct..
In addition we know that pricing has already fallen sharply in August and September so that we are now seeing a monthly average sales price per sq. ft. across Greater Phoenix of $82.46 as of September 28. As you can see, not only Gilbert Home Prices but Phoenix area prices overall are indicating a awesome buying opportunity.
Note that this is not really much of a "forecast", since almost all the sales that will be included in the November S&P Case-Shiller® Home Price Index calculation (those in July, August and September) have already happened. It's really just a pure mathematical exercise where the only uncertain factors are the inherent errors in the raw data and the different ways of collectingand measuring an index versus a price per sq. ft. figure. If you are thinking about investing or just buying and would like info on Gilbert Home Prices or other areas just give me a call!