The next three months will be interesting for the Birmingham AL MLS market as year-to-date units sold are below 2009 levels for the first time since early spring. With September, 2010 showing a roughly 21% drop in units from September, 2009, it is clear that the effects of the federal tax credits were an acceleration of demand into the first six months of the year; the data trends in July, August and September suggest a corresponding decrease in demand in the second half of the year. Assuming 2009 to be a "normal" year (i.e., overall comparable to 2010), we should expect to see units sold in the next three months, due to the seasonal nature of our business, at an average of about 741 units (for October, November and December). These projected levels are at about 100 units less that the average for August and September. It will continue to be a relatively painful 4th quarter for sellers with buyers enjoying lots of choices in virtually every price range.
As can be seen from the chart at right summarizing activity from July 1 - September 30, 2010, sales activity for the Birmingham AL MLS during the past 90 days has not kept up with sellers cancelling their listings. In other words, there were more people who "gave up" trying to sell their home than people who were actually successful in selling their home. In addition, this 3-month activity shows an accumulation of inventory of 1,347 units (i.e., a net increase in homes available for sale). While these figures may seem disheartening for sellers, there are some positive trends on the horizon. Employment numbers in the metro Birmingham area are showing positive signs of recovery and interest rates have continued downward. For sellers, showing activity, and ultimately, offers to purchase, will be directly related to VALUE. Homes must be in excellent, move-in condition, staged properly, priced aggressively and marketed for maximum exposure.
With an even larger inventory of homes, now is a great time to buy. For buyers, we recommend researching the areas you are interested in thoroughly and negotiating through your agent under the terms most advantageous to you. It is not uncommon for sellers to pay between 3-6% of closing costs. Many first-time buyers are not aware that engaging a real estate agent to assist them in BUYING a home is FREE. Homes are listed for sale in the Birmingham AL MLS under contract between a listing agent and a seller. The seller pays all commissions due (only on a SALE) and typically this commission is SPLIT between the listing agent (works with seller) and the BUYER agent (works with the buyer). As such, buyers are advised to engage their own agent for locating and viewing homes for sale and negotiating an offer. A BUYER'S AGENT works solely for the buyer and the buyer's best interest.
In order to research the market without spending very much time, contact me at sold@markcrain.com to get a free market snapshot emailed directly to your inbox. In less that 2 minutes per week, you can view properties of interest to you (e.g., within 1/2 mile of your home), including photos, that have sold or were recently listed. Search all properties in the Birmingham MLS by clicking markcrain.com.
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