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26 Comments on What if there is no real recovery in the next three years? Then what?
Richard - I would be surprised if we saw recovery that quickly, at least overall. I think our local market will see recovery on a few fronts within that time but it just seems naive to think the rainbows and sunshine will return and everyone's pocketbooks will run over again so quickly (which seems to be the sentiment for some).
My 'exit strategy' is to just out-stubborn those who were fortunate to be successful when the market was easy. Since I started in the midst of the 'ugly', I'm just too foolish to know any better - it makes me scrappy and tenacious competition! It's sort of the 'last man standing' mentality. If that fails, I'll have a wonderful set of tech skills to fall back on after using so many for my current business!
Now, I've shared mine. What is yours?
A tough topic for sure. It makes people think about a contingency plan. And people dont like to plan for the worst.
As for me, my husband and I will still be okay. As a matter of fact, our financial strategy is to become totally debt from from everything forever more by end of next year, in this no real recovery. We've kept our lifestyles very nominal and it definitely helps in this period.
My husband and I are also planning for him to work with me full time once we paid off the house.
If there's no real recovery now, we'll just continue to lay low like we did now but when it turns around, maybe we can go on 1 vacation per year.
Richard...My personal exit stratagy involves wildgame and fish! Maybe a self built log cabin!
@ William - I think you might have the right idea!
Richard, Very thought provoking post for sure. I got in the biz just 5.5 years ago at age 47. I have a contingency plan in place. I know the biz would be a challenge but WOW, not quite like this.
I too am surprised that this has not generated more discussion. As people know, I have been the harbinger of doom and gloom for a long time. The reason - becuase I felt that someone needed to counter balance the "Rah, rah!" mentality that has always been all over the place on AR. I think the rain Gods should have the courage to put up a post like this on the feature board.
My father's final illness derailed some of my ability to plan ahead. Since he passed this past April - I have been quietly putting together the pieces and have been making plans. It would mean a move - I live in a very expensive area. And it would probably mean a move outside the USA. I do not see a future here for "regular people." Only moguls can thrive in this "winner take all" environment. God knows I've fought the political fight for more reform and more regulation along with increased stimulus - but I am not a mogul - nor do I wish to be one. So Plan B does not rely on being in any particular location.
Plan A is to put the pieces in place to dominate several markets of choice and have my brand out there front and center.
Contingency plan... well I think plan B was not in their plan that was the problem.
Eileen - If you are working in Manhattan - you have a lot more to work with. It's one of the few places where a massive downturn has not been experienced. You have no idea what it has been like elsewhere. The market has been on the skids for five long years. I don't care HOW good or prepared anyone is - there is just so long that most can withstand a downturn like that...I felt the comment was more than a tad flip.
I think that a lot of us don't like to thin k that these problems will be protracted. But we must make plan, even if it is "just in case!"
Richard, Great post...Absolutely true-having a plan to survive!
I particularly like to quote the saying, "the conventional wisdom is usually wrong".
Richard it's true we don't like to think of the nasty stuff lurking around us until the car won't start, you lose your job, you get sick etc.
We have realized we need to generate more money and save save save and we do not live lavishly by any means.
In the end, there will be things that take us away from our idea of "success," it is how we repond to them that is the difference between pain, and suffering,
Richard,
I am encouraged that people are beginning to save more. It makes me hopeful that full recovery driven by consumers may actually be driven by consumers with money in the bank. That will mean more to me in terms of economic strength than one driven strictly by credit card and home loan over-leverage.
Richard.....even in a marketplace that has always been thriving, we have felt the hit....we still have business, but I am watching other areas of my state tanking....cape cod is taking a beating....western ma is taking it on the chin....we have been fortunate to still have deals....I fully agree with Ruthmarie in #14.....some people have more to work with in certain areas than others......
Good thing the recession ended last year. HAH! Not in my household - OR most that I know.
A thought provoking post for sure. I'm tweaking my marketing plan and enlarging the area I market, and also expanding my sources of income--can't put all eggs in the real estate basket anymore.
No doubt things are tough and will be for a while. What I see is it depends on where you work. My area CT is not as bad off as other parts of the country. Don't get me wrong it still isn't good just better than some.
One way or another, the 2010 elections will have a major impact.
Richard, Judd Gregg said if we do not change course, in 5-7 years, we will be "Greece." Since we have no desire to live in Greece (in that sense, anyway), our immediate plan includes more of an emphasis on self-sufficiency (chickens, gardening, etc.); if it comes to it, the next step is retire, probably to Panama. We don't plan to stay here and have our assets sucked up by a burdensome tax system. Regardless of each individual's plan, everyone better be planning for an alternative reality.