You bought at the Peak?
Here’s a look at residential properties in King County that were either purchased or acquired in 2006 and 2007 and had some kind of ownership transfer in 2010 (through September 22nd).
There are 573,234 residential properties in King County, Washington. Actually more, but in this study I’m just looking at the residential property that is 1 to 4 units. This includes single family dwellings, condominiums, townhomes, duplex, triplex, and fourplex. No mobile homes or manufactured homes etc...
From January 1 through September 22, 2010 there were 48,412 property transfers. That’s everything from quit claim deeds, trustee’s sales, and full price arm length sales. What I’m curious about is 2010 sales and transfers of properties that were acquired during the peak of the market in 2006 and 2007. What kind of transactions will these be, and how many will I find.
In 2007 there were 37,720 transfers of ownership or 6.58% of the total inventory.
Of these, 452 changed ownership in 2010.
In 2006 there were 43,283 transfers of ownership or 7.55% of the total inventory.
Of these, 538 changed ownership in 2010.
KING COUNTY TOTAL Transfered in 2010 MARKET % Residential Properties 573,234 Transfers in 2010 25,040 Acquired in 2007 37,720 452 1.19 In Lieu of Foreclosure 14 3.1 Sheriff 1 0.22 Trustee's 15 3.32 Warranty 47 10.4 Quit Claim 351 77.65 Other 24 5.31 Acquired in 2006 43,283 538 1.24 In Lieu of Foreclosure 11 2.04 Sheriff 1 0.19 Trustee's 21 3.9 Warranty 53 9.85 Quit Claim 418 77.7 Other 34 6.32
I find it interesting that over 75% of the properties acquired during the peak of the market in 2006/2007 that transferred in 2010 were by Quit Claim Deed. This can be for a number of reasons. Traditionally quit claims are used to take someone off title as in a divorce, or to bring someone on title because of marriage. They're also used to create separate estates.
More than usual they were the QCD’s of married couples into a Family Trust and owners simply walking away from the property deeding it back to the seller or lender. A scenario I did not expect to find so much of was QCD’s used to bring another party on to title often including a refinance. Over 50 of the Quit Claims deeds were to LLC’s.
This is by no means a definitive study. I’m just peeling the onion and trying to look at the market with fresh eyes to see what I might discover. I’ve created statistical models to analyze neighborhoods for years, but they were in part based on an assumption that property appreciated every year. In the Pacific Northwest we got comfortable thinking we were somehow different than the rest of the country and we’d always see appreciation.
Ardell DelaLoggia posted an interesting over view of King County single family dwellings on October 26th. She charts our peak in July 2007 with a median high of $486,000. We slid from there and hit bottom in March 2009 at $362,700 then ascended back up to $390,000 in September of 2010. Ardell points out that we’re likely to dip below the March 2009 bottom by the end of October. View her post here: King County Home Prices almost below "bottom"
We see and hear numbers being thrown around all the time about what’s going on in the market place. Often, they’re national and I have a difficult time wrapping my brain around those statistics. They don’t help my client who’s got a listing appointment next week and is trying to price it. As someone who constantly looks at neighborhoods and the sales within them, I know it’s a diverse and fragmented market. Some neighborhoods are stable, some slowly appreciating, but more are still on the downward trend.
Comments(6)