It doesn't seem that long ago. Homes were listed and before night fell for the first time on the sign in the yard, offers were submitted. Agents faced with the requirement that offers be shared with the seller in a timely fashion found that if an early offer was ratified (even at full price) subsequent offers would be higher and possibly more attractive to their sellers. The art of "E-Bay" styled bidding was born. Agents would counsel their sellers to set a date and time when offers would be reviewed. This gave the appearence of narrowing the window and certainly increased the possibility of multiple offers.

Buyer's agents, faced with the dilema of having their clients knocked out of the bidding war, began using the non-sensical "escalation clause" with their offers. Their clients were impressed with this manuver and selling agents began to receive all sorts of clever algorhythms breaking down escalation points and dollar amounts.

The selling agents had to love this. Buyers were now letting you know their maximum offer amount. Buyers were doing this under the mistaken impression that if their top dollar offer was taken, they would have to see that there was a trigger offer just below theirs that brought the escalation into play.

Sorry Charlie. The terms of an offer are just that - the terms of an offer. The sellers agent was completely within their rights if they advised their client to counter the offer at the maximum price. They did not have to reveal any offer received to make a counter offer. Smart selling agents understood that the buyers had removed all negotiating power by revealing their bottom line with their first offer.

Conversations often went something like this.

Buyers agent - "My client reserved the right to see the offer that triggered the escalation clause, will you be sending that over with your counter offer?"

Selling agent - "No. We are sending you a counter offer at your maximum dollar figure. If your client wants the house, have them sign the counter offer. Note that the counter is only valid until 9pm tonight. We have other offers but we wanted your client to have the first opportunity."

Buyer agent - "But....but.....but...our offer said we could see it."

Selling agent - "Yes it did. Our counter is in your hands. You explain it to your clients, if they want the house, they can accept the counter. Let me make sure you understand. The bold print at the top of the counter that states "the offer is valid until 9pm on todays date". I look forward to working with you."

In that market, the buyer always blinked. There was no negotiation. Their agent exposed their position and in every transaction I was involved in.....the buyer blinked and my seller got top price.

The market has changed 180 degrees. Now those same buyers agents are advising their clients to write offers that belong in a comedy club routine rather than a real estate transaction. The same geniuses that brought us the escalation clause are bringing us the bottom feeding offer. A home is listed at $475,000 in a market that reasonably could be expected to bring $465,000 to $500,000. The first two offers come in and they are for $350,000 (cash deal and they can settle in a week!) and $410,000.

The $410,000 offer is countered at $470,000. The agent calls to say his client knows prices are falling and they will wait until the price drops to $425,000. The calender starts ticking (clocks take much too long in this market). There are no more offers. The seller decides that they don't want to sell and the house comes off the market. The agent that represented the $410,000 offer calls and says "hey, my people would have gone to $450,000."

I realize, many agents became agents during the "gold rush". They have never learned how to negotiate. They have never learned how to work with a client and begin a back and forth discussion that will result in a sale. They make an offer and move on. They do not seem to be capable of explaining the difference between "fire sale" and "buyers market".

Listings last much longer and in many cases it is he who lists second or third is the one that gets the deal.

I understand that the lending crisis has impacted the market. I understand that some homes have been priced out of the range of the average consumer. I understand that there is a lot of inventory and if you are working with a buyer, you actually have to preview homes and show them the best of the lot. I understand that some things have changed.

One thing remains the same. You have to make a reasonable offer for negotiation to begin.

It is very cold on the dark side of the moon.

 

19 Comments on The Dark Side of the Moon

SEP
05
2007

This will be my first cycle from "boom" to "bust" market. Luckily, our local market never got unreasonable, and even though I'm a new agent, I have used care to qualify both my buyers and sellers.

I've added your mantra to my list of things that I MUST empart to buyers and sellers:

You have to make a reasonable offer for negotiation to begin.

Key word - reasonable. Thanks!

Have a great day in Maryland.

Sam White

9:37am • #1
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John,
I went through a similar situation this weekend. I've had this home listed for 30 days @ 435,000.  We dropped the price to 420,000 2 weeks ago.  A buyer then made an offer of 397,000 - my seller countered full price.  Another week goes by and another buyer makes an offer of 391,000 (Yeah Right!) Countered him full price too.  Agents keep saying that their customers are reading the papers too much and they all think it is a buyer's FREE for all out there! 

Next thing you know the first buyer comes back with a halfway decent offer at $412,000.  We go back and forth with him over $3,000 (sellers wanted 415,000)  While we are going back and forth with the first buyer, the second (low ball) buyer comes back with a full price offer!  If either buyer had intially come in with a DECENT OFFER they probably would have ended up paying less money for the house than the final buyer did!!
9:48am • #2
352,422 Points 15 Featured Posts Outside Blog
J-mac - your insights are as ever, very telling. Some sellers these days simply won't counter. I had one just this last week - well to be more accurate, my assistant did. I'm still not working becuase of some health issues, but she did call me and told me we had an offer that was a full 30% below asking. I told her that obviously she needed to present it, but that in all circumstances my advice to the sellers is to counter. You never really know if you are facing a fishing expedition or someone who genuinely wants the home. You only really find that out if you negotiate.
9:48am • #3
210,319 Points 50 Featured Posts Outside Blog

You know what's funny? Your blogs leave me speechless. You say what you say SO WELL, I have nothing to add except ATTA'BOY John! This is bookmarked. You are a genuis - anyone ever tell you that?

 

11:21am • #4
106,414 Points 12 Featured Posts

Sam - key word may be reasonable....but making the offer is just as important. Thanks for reading.

Debbie - Thanks for reading and sharing. It is nice when the kids in my neighborhood stop by and share. Affirmation baby! Wow, I have been waiting for the right time a place to use that one. : )

Simon - Aha! Now I see the upside to your physical ailment. You take the time to peruse blogs and then actually share. Please don't be a stranger. Your wit, wisdom an love of this country are welcome here. I suppose I should add that my team will win more than your team this year. Sorry Buc's.

J-Dawg - Your acknowledgement is higher praise than I probably deserve. Thank you for reading. Thank you for writing. And thank you for polishing off a couple marguerita's before commenting : )

8:13pm • #5
SEP
06
2007
1 Featured Post

Great Post!

We have to educate our buyers.  Everywhere they look, the media is hammering the message that it's a buyer's market.  The underlying message is that they can steal any home they want because every seller is in trouble.

There's no recognition of sellers who 'get it' and have properly prepared their home for the market and have priced it approropriately.

Good thought provoking post and comments.  Thanks.

6:46am • #6
837,677 Points 213 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Aw, common John.  I loved the Escalation Clause.  Played it like a Stradivarius. 

But, you're right about buyers making ridiculous offers today.  Our offers are usually based on today's market valuation less a reasonable allowance for the falling market and it's coming in about 7% below today's market.  I believe we have a ways to go with prices coming down and buyers don't want to buy and see their value fall.  That said, if a buyer is buying a HOME, to live in for a long period of time, they need to look at the house and not so much at the market.  The problem that I see is that prices are still way too high FOR BUYERS TO BUY.  If the prices stay up, buyers will simply renew their lease for another year.  They've been sitting for two years.  It's a stand-off at the O.K. Coral.  Buyers just arent going to pay these prices unless interest rates come down to where they were in 2003-4.  Hey, that's blog material. 

I had a buyer want to make a $400,000 offer on a $500,000 hours a few weeks ago.  I dumped the buyer.

7:03am • #7
352,422 Points 15 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Lenn - I had a buyer make a $450,000 offer on a $580,000 home. The thing is we got it for $470,000. Don't you have a duty to look after the best interests of your client? Now of course the particular home you talk about may not have been available at such a huge reduction, but I guarantee you that there are homes in your market where that is available.
7:17am • #8
106,414 Points 12 Featured Posts

Eric - Thanks for reading. I agree with the lack of recognition. We really have to work hard at presenting facts regarding value. Keep an eye for a new post coming regarding that.

Lenn - I have no doubt you enjoyed the escalation clause. You were in a market that was up to it's ears in agents that just got in the game. They did not know that you could actually negotiate on behalf of their client. You never tried to run one by me : )  We really have a conondrum in this area. Prices seem higher than buyers are willing to pay. If the prices come down, the buyers are afraid to pay because the value seems to be decreasing. Interest rates remain historically low but buyers seem to only relate to rates that were about 1 to 1.5 points lower. For some reason the fact that they can not buy anything today at prices that existed 3 years ago does not resonate. The fact that the interest rates on all consumer debt have risen faster and higher than mortgage debt does not resonate. We are the last line and we better begin educating or my dark side of the moon will turn into something like a nuclear winter.

Simon - There may be homes that are available for that sort of reduction, but I have not seen any. You sure won't find it available on REO property, or relo property. If a home owner is willing to take that kind of hit...........well,  I just can't conceive of a situation that would allow it. You are talking about a 19% difference. I suppose things may be different in Disneyland, I just don't recall any 20% differences between list price and sale price inside or outside the beltway and beyond.

7:50am • #9
352,422 Points 15 Featured Posts Outside Blog

That would be DisneyWORLD John - Disneyland in on the other coast! Acually it wasn't even here - it was at the coast, but it moves away from my main point which is that if you are looking after the best interests of the buyer then you need to do your homework. What did they pay for the home? How much mortgage do they have on it? Is it vacant and can you therefore make an assumption they are paying a second note somewhere? In other words, how much overall pain is the seller in. I guess if I had educated my client and they consistently wanted to make unrealistic offers then I would envoke the catapult, but there are certainly some spectacular deals to be had out there right now.

OK - more important matters. The Redskins will be in Tampa for their annual beating on 11/25. Wanna come? :)

7:57am • #10
184,930 Points 2 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Thank-you, Simon. 

Speaking as an investor and a move up home buyer, it would be so good to meet a Realtor that truly understands the art of negotiation.  I now see there a few around.

Although as a lender I would love to see maximum loan amount everytime, that would be foolish and irresponsible of me. 

7:58am • #11
2 Featured Posts
I have long believed that "most" agents neither know how to negotiate nor can very effectively. Well we will all learn over the next few months. Also sellers will relearn that selling a house is not a race.
8:01am • #12
352,422 Points 15 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Matthew - you have to negotiate from a position of power - and we all should know that knowledge brings power. I have a whole bunch of happy customers because we always do our homework!
8:16am • #13
577,289 Points 95 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

John, I am very grateful for jennifer Alan's post sending me here. I can't believe I have never read your blog. I have now read down to the listings you posted. I'm glad I found you, you are an excellent writer and I especially love the one on divorce. WOW, my husband and I made the decision 15 years ago, to stick it out, we had 5 children and we are both grateful we did.

It would have been so easy to leave, as every good marriage has rocky times. I'll be reading you more.

Missy

8:20am • #14
106,414 Points 12 Featured Posts

Simon - There or the west coast....they all promote Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. On a side note, I wish Mickey and Donald would make up their mind and stop entering their name in every lead search engine out there. Don't assume they are paying a second note somewhere. It is obvious you understand the basic principle involved in all sales - they are the result of pain or gain. Folks want to remove pain or move forward and access a gain.

I will check my schedule and look at 11/25.

Matthew - those that think Peter Angelos if the best negotiater on the planet have not watched me in action. There are fewer good negotiators out there because ..... we are a rare breed of cowboy!

Perrin - They come and they go, the good ones remain.

Simon - please read "The Art of War"....lots of knowledge.

Missy - Welcome to my world. Jennifer is worthy of "sit at the foot of and just listen" but then she would just kick you in the butt and tell you to go do something. I hope everyone takes note...selling soulfully requires SOUL.

 

9:55am • #15
352,422 Points 15 Featured Posts Outside Blog
John - trips to the bookstore are not on the agenda right now (my doc will only allow car trips to his office and once a week to the radio station), but I will look out for it. In the meantime, go to my blog and read "Touched by my tennis team". I think you will find it uplifting,
12:38pm • #16
SEP
09
2007
294,852 Points 100 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
I thoroughly enjoyed reading this post!  The "escalation" clause was a trip down memory lane.  Boy, were those interesting.  Thanks for a well written blog post.
11:53pm • #17
SEP
10
2007
106,414 Points 12 Featured Posts

Simon - there is the site on the internet called amazon.com  You can go there and search for books and they will even ship them to you. This brave new world is a wonderful place for the consumer.

Lola - Thanks for taking the time to read my blog. I appreciate it.

1:29pm • #18
352,422 Points 15 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Ah but John - the bookstore is a place of peace and serenity. It is also a place that is disappearing from our streets and I for one will not let that happen without a small modicum of resistance. I was cleared to drive today and so the bookstore will be on my list of first places to visit.
4:19pm • #19

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John MacArthur

Olney, MD

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