As of this writing our real estate team has 13 clients with accepted offers with other clients in negotiations. We're very busy, so we're cautiously optimistic our local MLS data will show a modest improvement in our market in the coming months.
One way we can take a forward-looking view at the market is to use Pending Homes Sales data from the National Association of Realtors. The Pending Home Sales Index is a measure based on listings under contract. The more listings under contract, the higher the index. This index provides a forward-looking view of the market, since most signed contracts close within a timeframe of one to two months. This data is not specific to our market, but we've already shown our local single family home and condo markets closely mirror sales patterns at the national level.
This graph shows the monthly year-over-year change in the US Pending Home Sales Index from January of 2005 through September of 2010. The index first started to decrease in the Fall of 2005. That trend continued for the next 3 years, but then moved clearly to the upside in March of 2009 where it remained for 14 straight months. The index turned sharply lower in May of 2010, signaling the dramatic drop in home sales that would occur in July due to the expiration of the tax credit.
Another way to look at the Pending Home Sales Index is to look at the month of September only. As you'll see from this graph, the index this past September was the lowest for any September on record.
So far the Pending Home Sales Index does not suggest an improving market. Let's see what the index reports for the month of October. The National Association of Realtors will be releasing its October report on December 2nd.
Dan Miller, Realtor, Keller Williams Realty and www.DaneCountyMarket.com
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