So I've been bashing the media and their wholesale attack on the "great losses" in the subprime secondary market which supposedly caused the problem we have today. I have said the problem is not the lenders, the problem is the sissy pants, scared little pansy-ass nuevo-riche investors who know NOTHING about the FVM or ROI on any scale who pulled their little investments at totally the worst time. AND the blame falls on the shoulders of each individual borrower IN MOST CASES. I will keep saying that over and over and over because it is the truth.

I have issued a challenge to the media to SHOW US HEDGE FUNDS or REIT's that LOST MONEY prior to September of 2006 (because that's when the media started sucking the very marrow out of the industry with their skewed statistics and lack of knowledge of an intensely complicated economic engine that drives 1/3 of the nations business).

So what was the news on Friday? A 410% change in a HEDGE fund that invests in SUB PRIME MORTGAGES. Did they LOSE? NO! They are UP 410% THIS YEAR from their investments in sub=prime mortgages! How could that be? I thought every sub-prime mortgage in the nation was in foreclosure.

I keep telling people I'm right about this ...

 

 

19 Comments on Paulson Subprime Fund UP 410% THIS YEAR??? It's true ...

And, you are! Keep slamming away and hopefully the media picks up the story and does the research.

 

www.MarinRealEstateBlog.com

09/11/2007 09:28 AM by Mark Lomas (Frank Howard Allen Realtors)


This is a contrarian fund, in that it benefits by the positions that it sells that the subprime market gets worse. If the market improves, the funds performance actually goes down, not up as you have stated.

It is tied to the futures market. I recall when he started the fund, most of the 'wall street' knowledge did not see the subprime meltdown coming, but he did, so he set up the contrarian fund.

This is NOT a good thing that it is up by that whopping percentage, unless of course you have money in the fund, which regrettably I do not.......DAMN....:)

09/11/2007 09:45 AM by Bill Nazur (Nazur Enterprises, Inc. & BAMG)


Actually, Bill, there are no funds which lost money solely because of their investment in subprime loans. The losses began occurring after their investors ran screaming from their online investment accounts with their early pullouts. Check the big funds like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and note when the true change occurred. Also, keep in mind, the percentage of subprime defaults (PLEASE EVERYONE - understand that when the media says "in foreclosure" they mean "in default" and there is a HUGE difference) has not increased. The PERCENTAGE of subprime defaults is about the same as it always has been. Any increase is more likely due to the "it's not my fault" mentality of the US today and a result of the media telling subprime borrowers it was the LENDER's fault they got a "bad loan". Thank you for your comment!

09/11/2007 10:00 AM by Novation Mortgage


While I am a big supporter of the 'Personal Responsibility' arguement.... I think the media needs to act more responsible.

 

09/11/2007 11:45 AM by Tom Burris | Texas Home Loan Expert (DallasLoanGuy.com)


And more proof that subprime will be back. One rep already told me that he is expecting some guidelines to loosen up some.

 

09/11/2007 11:46 AM by Tom Burris | Texas Home Loan Expert (DallasLoanGuy.com)


It appears from the article that the fund is betting against Sub-Prime mortgages, so I don't follow you there; but I do agree that the media is fueling the panic where there doesn't need to be one.  I've read stories from financial news outlets telling me that people who don't have perfect credit can't get a loan, yet we close them every day.  Underwriting has definately tightened up, but the sky is not falling...... where are they getting their info?

09/11/2007 11:52 AM by Kevin Hancock - The Hancock Mortgage Team (The Legacy Group; Capital/Mortgage/Escrow)


did you read the article?

 

defaults and foreclosures are at the highest since 1981

 you are suffering from a severe case of conformation bias

I quote

"Paulson has been among the most aggressive hedge funds betting against the subprime mortgage business"

 

they are shorting these CDO's or CMO"S

I like your positive mind set but you are pushing a contrarian approach to the subprime market as the answer to why it did not lose money

09/11/2007 11:56 AM by Jeff Tumbarello (Network Funding Solutions, LLC)


And more proof that subprime will be back. One rep already told me that he is expecting some guidelines to loosen up some.

 

dont listen to sales people, they are trying to sell you something

 

I bet his market knowledge is randomn and hearsay based stuff

 

09/11/2007 11:59 AM by Jeff Tumbarello (Network Funding Solutions, LLC)


I agree with Kevin, which is even being quoted by Jeff.  Your argument is that this particular hedge fund is up on account of investing in sub prime mortgages, but the article states the contrary.  However, i will agree with you that the media is only making matters worse, and blowing thing way out of proportion.

09/11/2007 01:42 PM by Joshua Talayka (Chase Internatinonal)


"dont listen to sales people, they are trying to sell you something"

 

And who here isn't???

09/11/2007 02:48 PM by Geoff Thomas


Just a thought: What happens to all this paper that Paulson is holding when the ABX values up about 20% after subprime modifications become commonplace? Paulson's contrarian hedging is dependent on new loans or they have no swaps. In other words, they are depending on "failed markets of viable vehicles" or still they have no increase. And they have cleared what, 11 billion off the street?

No investors, no new loans. No new loans, no new money. No new money less ROI. Less ROI, no new investors. No investors, no new loans ...

09/11/2007 03:13 PM by Novation Mortgage


it depends on the basis that they entered at

many reits are buying defaulted paper at big discounts, some interest income, some assets, the perceived vaule is lower than the intrinsict vaule, so they are getting good buys

 

i just had a short sale cancelled due to a reit buying the loan

09/11/2007 03:31 PM by Jeff Tumbarello (Network Funding Solutions, LLC)


dont listen to sales people, they are trying to sell you something"

 

And who here isn't???

 

09/11/2007 by Geoff Thomas

 

so sell on your merits, not on trumped up BS

I love when a sales person talks about the future of his or her market, its all about the best thing you can do is buy from me

I do not have a salary, i still put my clients interest first, not throw half witted BS out in an attempt to pay my bills and stroke my ego

end of sermon

09/11/2007 03:33 PM by Jeff Tumbarello (Network Funding Solutions, LLC)


the media can't sell advertising if tell the truth. Fear sells. We went to war based on fear.

09/11/2007 09:55 PM by Christopher Onwuasoanya (Merrill Lynch)


How embarrassing for the original poster...  If he even had a basic understanding of finance it would have been obvious why the hedge fund is doing so well.   This really is sad..   The original poster and his supporters are the people who demand and justify 6%??  When will this insanity end....

09/11/2007 10:55 PM by Annon


Embarrasing? Did you do a little research on "the original poster"? 6%? What 6% are you talking about? Basic understanding of finance? Have you ever managed or even participated in a hedge fund? Do some research and register before you come back, thanks.

09/12/2007 08:19 AM by Novation Mortgage


"So what was the news on Friday? A 410% change in a HEDGE fund that invests in SUB PRIME MORTGAGES. Did they LOSE? NO! They are UP 410% THIS YEAR from their investments in sub=prime mortgages! How could that be? I thought every sub-prime mortgage in the nation was in foreclosure."

 "Paulson has been among the most aggressive hedge funds betting against the subprime mortgage business"

 

I realize you are a big mortgage bull, but deny reality so much, how sad. The writing is on the wall for the mortgage industry it is a shame your ego doesn't allow you to see what is going on.

 

09/14/2007 04:01 AM by Mikey


This blog does not allow anonymous comments

 
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