Last week was a bumpy one. Even with 4 positive days we still managed to have the 2nd worst week for Fannies in the past month. Fannies closed on Friday with a net loss of 22/32nds marking the 4th week in a row of significant losses in the mortgage market. Keep in mind that there is an inverse relationship between price and yield: Price down, Yield UP.... The biggie of the week ended up being an AP report showing the largest growth in jobs in the past 3 years, The actual Jobs report from Uncle Sam actually came in weaker than expected, but that did not help improve things much.
This week has its share of data and Supply to move the market:
- Monday December 6: It is a no news day and we have been trading in significantly higher territory all day which will look pretty on a rate sheet.
- Tuesday December 8: Triple Play Real Estate Convention starts today (NY, NJ, PA) in Atlantic City NJ. This wont move the market, but I will be there! Stop by Booth 815 to say hello if you are in town. Tuesday-Thursday.
- Tuesday: Treasury auction With$32 Billion in 3 year notes. With yields poppingup over the past month and the short term of this auction I anticipate it will be strongly bid and that we may see stable rates as a result of it.
- WednesdayDecember 8: Auction #2 of the week with $21 Billion in 10 year notes. Now flirting just below 3% this one should get better bids than we have seen in the past. If this is not well bid, and we see the 10yr creep above 3% it will be ugly in the mortgage world - but that doesn't appear to be a likely scenario right now.
- Thursday December 9: Initial Jobless claims expected down 10,000. This puts the weekly number at 426,000 - Well with in recession range - so it should be supportive of steady rates.
- Thursday: Wholesale Inventories expected +0.9%. This is not a typical top shelf report and is not a likely market mover.
- Thursday: Last auction of the week with $13 Billion in 30 yr bonds. This one may be a little scary, so keep a close eye on the results, if poorly bid it will not be good news for rates.
- Friday: A no news day
The biggie's of the week will have to be the extra supply in the markets and purely a supply & demand issue. There is not much data to chew on for market direction so the markets appetite for the auctions may dictate a direction for the week. As we approach the end of the year things always get a little dicey as investors look to clean up their portfolios for a fresh start in January, That could mean selling which is never good for price especially with excess supply.
There are some significant worries in Europe still, (Mostly Ireland at the Moment) If there happens to be some bad news come out in that arena it is likely to cause a flight to quality with extra cash flowing into our credit markets. If that happens it will help to not only keep our rates steady, but possibly lower them as well.. This is currently a big "maybe", so don't bank on it!
I am not overly worried about rates at the moment, Still firmly in the 4's for Good Buyers - I don't anticipate a big move at the moment after a fairly HUGE move in the past 4 weeks. That being said- I also do not anticipate a big drop either, so it probably doesn't make any sense to wait in hopes of lower rates either.
Have a great week!
Rob
Mortgage Banker
NMLS ID# 248937
www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf
(732)223-1630 x102
Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!
Real Estate Mortgage Network Inc.
NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey, Toms River NJ 08753 Brick NJ 08723
Comments(5)