Buyer Activity Anaylsis for East Oceanside

With lender guidelines now more restrictive, a jump in interest rates on jumbo loans(over $417,000), and distressed sale properties(short sales and bank-owned) more plentiful, buyer activity on non-distressed sale homes has been slow in East Oceanside since the start of July 2007.

To see if there is a seasonal effect that may or may not determine sales in the next two months, I looked at what has happened with single family tract home sales between July and October for the past 4 years in East Oceanside, California. I have eliminated any homes in senior communities or those built after 2004 to be reduce some potential data skewing.

Here is a graphical representation of those numbers:

Notes for the above graph:
-data taken from Sandicor MLS and is believed reliable but not guaranteed
-2007 results include some pending sales that may not close
-RDO= The Villages of Rancho Del Oro(a tract of about 1600 homes)
-EOcn = 92056 and 92057 zip codes(East Oceanside), homes built between 1987 and 2004, not a senior community, and with at least $40 monthly HOA dues(eg. tract homes)

I interpret this data to mean sales this year are down from last year, and sales in Sept-Oct will be below July and August levels.

What kind of action does this require:
For sellers, they should price aggressively to lure the few buyers that are out there. For buyers, rather than focus on short sale or REO(bank-owned) properties to get the best deals, they may be able to negotiate lower prices with motivated sellers.