What to Expect From Home Prices in 2011

Karen - Sounds like a "lucky" situation to me.

Virginia - Thanks!  Because we've entered "uncharted territory," most want to make a comparison to other recoveries; and in truth, there's little to compare.

Tina - Yes, time and lots of it.

Mark - The efforts to date have certainly been meaningless.

Chris - Not only is fear of job loss a significant issue, and the inability of formerly "qualified" borrowers to get approval is another.  

Jirius - And it's not just today's foreclosures that impact the market, we have the potential for foreclosures to be with us for several years.

Brian - In many ways you've handled your housing and mortgage markets much better than we have.

Lyn - I have to look occasionally just to keep from getting "rusty."

Lynn - And we have yet to address the jobs issue in a manner that will create the jobs necessary for recovery.

Karen Anne - I'm always surprised by your responses to my posts since they often seem to ignore what I said.  You stated: You should know that there are many, many areas of the country where home values are NOT retreating, but are growing... 

And the final paragraph of my post stated: However, the news isn’t all bad; a few cities—those already experiencing jobs growth—will do quite well. Parts of Texas, California, North Carolina, Oklahoma and a few other states will see their populations grow and therefore, their housing markets flourish.

Based upon your comment, you seem to have information that is contrary to fact; but the fact is--according to MANY well-respected analysts--that housing appears to be entering a double-dip.  Metro Atlanta, where I live, has seen home prices fall to the lowest levels since the beginning of the recession; and several other areas have experienced the same thing. 

I review 25-30 publications each day and receive regular updates on government statistics; and what I've read points to the conclusions I reached in my post.  You don't have to agree, and I welcome your input. If you have information that paints a different picture from what I've presented, you should write a blog post and share the good news. 

Dennis - Because of the growth of government, DC is expected to do quite well for the foreseeable future.

Karen Anne - Conditions in Atlanta have little to do with my projections as the majority of my posts relate to the national market and overall conditions in the U.S.  And while anecdotal accounts, such as those you may hear from other agents are interesting, they often create a distorted view of the facts related to the overall market. 

Here are just a few of the facts, not suppositions, upon which I base my assessment:

November home sales were 26% below those of 2009--a bad year for home sales.

The "shadow inventory" of delinquent loans, REOs and foreclosures has reached 7 million and will take more than 3 years to clear with an additional 2 million foreclosures expected in 2011.

Serious delinquencies and homes in foreclosure increased 10% over last year.

Existing home inventory is more than 9 months of supply.

Homeownership in 3Q was the lowest in more than a decade and U.S. household formations are at their lowest since 1947.

New home inventory is at its lowest in 40 years, yet housing starts are below those of 3 decades ago, an indication that builders do not anticipate growth in the near-term.

I understand that markets vary across the country and constantly reference that in my posts, including this one, but the national market is in the worst shape in decades. Those who work in areas that are faring better than the overall market are fortunate, but their successess do not negate the fact that the U.S. housing market has yet to stabilize and that prices in many areas are continuing to fall. Those are the facts.

Phillip - Thanks!

Marte - Exactly.  REAL jobs are needed and are not coming in sufficient numbers to heal the economy.

Thom - 2011 is going to be great--for some--and the economy will begin to climb out of recession.  It's just that the climb will be so slow, we'll have to set up surveying instruments to register the movement.  But I suspect you'll do just fine.  You're still here, and that's more than can be said for thousands in the real estate and homebuilding businesses.

Bev & Bob - Yes, as will always be the case, the market in some areas will vary greatly from others.

Gene - I agree that the drastic changes will probably morph into minor adjustments around the country.

Larry - Pretty sobering indeed.

Jeffrey - There's still lots of lemonade to be made, and those who can find the "sugar" will do just fine.

Peter - Thanks for a look from "down under."

Gabe - Thanks for the support and reblog!