Murrieta California January 2011 Market Conditons

By
Real Estate Appraiser with BAYER APPRAISALS

Appraiser Adjustment Matrix

Area                                      Murrieta                                 Date 1/5/2011

Square Footage

0-3 Months

4-6 Months

Difference

2800-3000

$275,000

$289,500

$-14,500

2600-2800

$255,800

$275,000

$-19,200

difference

$19,200

$14,500

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2400-2600

$263,000

$265,000

$-2000

difference

$-7200

$10,000

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2200-2400

$248,300

$246,600

$1700

difference

$14,700

$18,400

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2000-2200

$225,000

$235,000

$-10,000

Difference

$23,300

$11,600

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1800-2000

$234,175

$225,000

$9175

Difference

$-9175

$10,000

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1600-1800

$210,000

$214,750

$-4750

Difference

$24,175

$10,250

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1400-1600

$195,000

$199,900

$-4900

difference

$15,000

$14,850

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1200-1400

$175,500

$178,000

$-2500

difference

$19,500

$21,900

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Difference TOTAL

$99,500

$111,500

$-46,975

Divide by 8

$12,437

$13,937

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Divide by 9

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$-5219

Divide by 200 sq'

= $ per Sq' $62

= $ per Sq'  $70

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Divide by 90 days

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= $ per day $-58

Data used is median sales prices in the area - for either current to 3-months or 4-6 months; by house square footage ranges.  In the gray boxes in the difference between the 2 median prices per the adjacent ranges.  Data indicates the current 3-month period found homes sold on average $62 difference per square foot (in the prior 3-month period the difference was: $70 per square foot). Between the median prices for the most recent 3-month period vs. the prior 3-month period median home prices went down on average $58 per day.

Data below finds most of the current listings in Murrieta are short sales, while most of the sales are REOs (for the current 1-month period and the same time frame from 1-year ago).  There has been a slight drop in the number of homes sold (188 in the current period vs. 194 in the same time period from 1-year ago).  The standard sales continue to pull the highest prices per square foot, while the REOs sell the fastest.  Note the average days on the market is growing, with the short sales taking the longest time to sell.

 

Total Number

% Standard

% REO

% Short Sales

Active Listings

653

35%

16%

44%

Pending Sales

120

22.5%

44%

29%

Closed Sales

188

33%

36%

25.5%

Sold 1-year ago

194

24%

44%

29%

Median sold prices

Standard Sq'

REO per Sq'

Short per Sq'

Standard DOM

REO DOM

Short sales

DOM

2009

$122

$104

$97

35 days

23 days

102 days

2010

$122

$97

$107

91 days

51 days

121 days

Not only are fewer homes selling and prices declining - I am also seeing the months of inventory grow (based on the current number of listings vs. 1-month of pending sales) - which is most recently at 5+ months, while just back to April 29, 2010 the months of inventory was at 2 and 1/2 months. 

Often in prior years the number of homes listed for sale drops between Thanksgiving and the early part of the next year (I believe because occupants don't want potential home buyers coming into their homes during holidays).  And as the new year comes along - new and older home sellers put their properties back on the market -- growing the inventory.  Unless, buyers come back soon - 2011 will not get off to a good start.  Prices might continue to drop as the inventory grows.  And if interest rates go up, lenders remain cautious, and heaven forbid they try to take away the mortgage interest IRS deduction -- things could be very bad. 

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Beverly Bayer

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