Consumer spending has been the key driver for the U.S. economy for a number of years now. Up until the last year or so, the wealth effect of either the stock market or the real estate market has been the underpinning or our economic expansion.
After taking a breather for several years, the stock market appears to be back, and just in the nick of time! The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Tuesday at a fresh new all-time high of 12,218.01. In addition to the Dow's splendid
performance, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have all posted double digit gains since their July lows earlier this year.
Was it a coincidence that the shares of many homebuilders, along with that of Lowes and Home Depot, also rose sharply yesterday? Perhaps the market knows something that we don't? While the stock market and other leading economic indicators have shown positive signs recently, it doesn't appear as if anyone is ready to predict a turnaround in the real estate market just yet.
According to Dan Tomnitz, CEO of Fort Worth Texas based homebuilder D.R. Horton, "I'd say we're in the early stages of a declining market. Most of these downturns are longer and deeper than we envision at the beginning."
Chief Executive Antonio Mon, of Hollywood, Florida based builder Technical Olympic, was equally morose. "In most of our markets we are seeing no signs of stabilization yet, and we fear that we have yet to find a bottom," Mon said. "That indicates to us that this correction is going to last maybe longer than others think it may."
Hopefully the recent stock market gains, along with a decline in long-term interest rates, will kick start the slumbering housing market sooner, rather than later.