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What is this "Shadow Inventory" and how will it affect the housing market in Toms River, NJ?

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Coldwell Banker Flanagan Realty

What is this "Shadow Inventory" and how will it affect the real estate market in Toms River, NJ?

We keep hearing the term, "shadow inventory" thrown around the real estate room these days. Exactly what is it and how will it affect me in Toms River, NJ?

Shadow Inventory refers to the "as of yet" unknown number of homes currently "in foreclosure" which have NOT been released to the market yet by the banks!


Slide courtesy of Keeping Current Matters!

So, what does that mean to me?

Well, if you NEED to SELL your home in Toms River, in 2011, there is currently a 13 month supply of homes on the market. That means; if no other listings were to come on the market from this day forward, it would take ONE YEAR and ONE MONTH to sell off the existing supply of homes in Toms River at the current sales pace.

Now, ADD the influence of the Shadow Inventory into the mix and 13 months turns into ? And there in lies the challenge; we DON'T KNOW how much actual Shadow Inventory is out there NOR do we know when it is actually coming on the market. What we do know is that this Shadow Inventory will ADD to the existing supply of homes and drive home prices down even further!

Our best guess-timate as to when this Shadow Inventory will come on the market is provided by 3 of the largest lending institutions themselves...the first half of 2011!

So, in a nut-shell; if you need to sell your home in Toms River, NJ, in 2011, your best bet to get the "highest possible price", is to list your home NOW, at a COMPELLING PRICE, before the Shadow Inventory is released some time in the first half of this year!

Jeff Coon
Annie Mac Home Mortgage - Toms River, NJ
Branch Manager

So true Jim.  We don't seem to be out of the woods just yet, and there appears to be more pain coming.

For buyers, this does not mean you should wait, however- getting into a home with a low interest rate loan that is now available ( & may not be for much longer )and starting to build equity will offset any small reduction in the value of the home you are buying.  Homes should not be bought for or as an investment, unless you are a real estate investor. Your home can & will turn into a profitable long term investment for you, so don't assume that you should wait just because prices are going lower.  However, if you are a seller, then now may be the best time, before competition & price erosion work against you.

 

Jan 20, 2011 10:10 AM
Jim Flanagan
Coldwell Banker Flanagan Realty - Toms River, NJ

Jeff,

You are stealing the THUNDER from my follow up post on what the "Shadow Inventory" means if you are a home-buyer in Toms River, NJ!  May I quote your comments above?

Thanks,

Jim

Jan 20, 2011 02:06 PM
Jeff Coon
Annie Mac Home Mortgage - Toms River, NJ
Branch Manager

Sure thing Jim.  I should have known you would be following this up with a buyer piece... :)

See you around!

Jan 25, 2011 06:46 AM