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Who wants to gamble on the Fed...

Hey you vegas guys...Just kidding... My partner and I (Scot Thrapp) were arguing about how much the Fed was going to cut rates tomorrow. We're almost to the point of starting a pool..Everyone in our tight little group follows the market really closely, SO whoever gets this one right will really be able to claim bragging rights for a while....needless to say this is a high stakes game.

Scot seems to think the Fed cuts the rate fifty percentage points tomorrow, twenty-five percentage points in October, and twenty-five percentage points in Decemeber.

I on the other hand I see the rates getting cut fifty percentage points tomorrow, and fifty more before the first of the year.

What do you guys think? Get in on the debate..Will it really help? Or will it make things worse? What are your thoughts...Roll the dice and comment....you might earn a lot of respect points here....

Update 9/17.....Look out guys I'm telling you I think I'm a pyshic...Scot and I got the first one's right...We'll see what happens in October and Again in December...This is a very hot subject in our market (the Myrtle Beach Market) How about where you live? Do you guys keep up with the market?

Do you find that your clients keep up with current market conditions? Ours do..Just read some of my blogs...

Folks we really want you to participate. Let us know what's going on in your market...Ohh yeah don't forget to place your bets...That FED rate still has a few more times to change before the new year and bragging rights are there for the taking. Test you skills here folks...

Posted by Brandon Causey Realtor Coastal Palmetto Realty LLC on 09/17/2007 11:02 PM

Comments (21)

This post has been included in South Carolina Information

21 Comments on Who wants to gamble on the Fed...

SEP

2007

The only gambling I do is:

Just kidding! I won't gamble with you on it, but I will admit and suggest PRAYER!

Gamble don't change things but prayer does.

thanks rose...

Great Blog once again...Your post are always so interesting not to mention entertaining. Thanks for bloging

Brandon, looks like both of you are right! You both are 100 points down by the first of the year!

50 bps tomorrow; 25 in October & who the hell knows after that?

Im with David.... you both are at 100 by the first of the year... so how do you win the bet?

The big question really is, what's already built into the market?

I'm all in. Quarter point tomorrow and that's it. I thought it would be a half point, but I find Alan Greenspan's timing for the release of his book to be very curious with the huge number of ARM resets scheduled to take place throughout the rest of this year. Lowering rates even a half point is like putting a band-aid in place of a frontal lobotomy. I think a lot of sidelined buyers will get in the game, but that they will be outnumbered by rising inventory and foreclosures.

Fed will cut more points than that

I think the Fed has a dart board and they will throw darts......guessing the dart will land at 1/4 or 1/2 percent reduction and if 1/4 now, expect more darts to land on 1/4 point reductions again soon.....

SEP

2007

To clear that 100pts thing up Dec is when I'm the second 50 gets cut...You have to call it exact to win with us.....Sorry about the confusing

I think it's going to be 25bps but the odds are around 80% that it'll be 50bps. One word of caution to everyone. It is not unusual to see home mortgage rates move in the opposite direction when the Feds cut the Fed Funds Rate. The decrease tomorrow basically affects HELOCS , auto loans and credit cards as it relates to the average consumer.

It'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow, since the anticipation affected stocks.....

Hopefully conforming and non-conforming rates will not be impacted.

Micki,

It also affects CD rates...when these rates are too low many of my investors tend to put money in the real estate market...

We are just 2 hours away!

GOOD! I'll take the news either way and can't wait for the headlines to shift from OJ to more important stuff! It is ridiculous that OJ is getting so much airtime with so many important things going on.

SEP

2007

I updated this so you guys better comment....what will happen next...Bragging rights are up for grabs now guys..

and you can't call us lucky!!!

SEP

2007

What is the spread in vegas...That's really not funny...They might take bets on something like this...

I came back to see who won and what did they win with the bet? And to ask, is there really a winner with things the way they are?

We were both right...I think scot and I were the only ones banking on the 50 percentage pts. Rose you better get in this pot....Thanks for revisiting...

OCT

2007

The fed is meeting at the end of the month don't forget to roll the dice...Bragging rights are up for grabs.

OCT

2007

It's that time again...Get your dice ready and roll. The fed meets again at the end of the week.

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