Golden Eagle Subdivision - A Pricing Trend Analysis
I was doing some research for a client and found an interesting trend (interesting if you're a numbers type anyway) on the pricing in Golden Eagle Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida . I was wondering if there existed any relationship between the properties that sold in Golden Eagle (how they were priced) and the properties that failed to sell in Golden Eagle (how they were priced). I created a trailing-12-month trend analysis for each, and the following graphic ensued.
The green line represents a 12 month average Price Per Square Foot (PPSFT) of all the homes that successfully sold in Golden Eagle (in that time period), while the red line represents the corresponding 12 month average PPSFT of all the homes that failed to sell in Golden Eagle (in the same time period). You can see that historically, the lines are not that far apart (meaning that Realtors are pretty confident about what price to list the home to get it sold), yet when the market makes a turn, we tend to see quite a few of the homes get over-priced and they fail to sell. Changing markets definitely have a way of separating the Motivated Sellers from the Unmotivated Sellers. The Two "Starred Periods" above show the two major market changes that we have witnessed over the past few years. The first star is the "boom market in Tallahassee," while the second star is the "cooling down" market that we are in now.
I'll be curious to see how this works itself out over time.
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