Optimistic Forecasts Related to Real Estate – Who Doesn’t Like Them?

Even if we ourselves have some reservations about the state of U.S. real estate because we want to be realistic, we still like to take a look at positive things that analysts say.

These first weeks of 2011, amid the forest of dark forecasts, there are bonfires of bright predictions shooting up out of the dark.

First, let’s read the dark predictions:

Lender repossessions will increase to 1.2 million units in 2011, according to RealtyTrac. Foreclosures will surpass the record one million lost last year and will peak this year.

The typical Wal-Mart customer still lives from paycheck to paycheck, according to Wal-Mart executives. Americans are still dogged by financial uncertainty.

Middle-income and lower-income households are still cash-strapped, according to a Bloomberg report.
The total value of residential real estate held by Americans dropped by $649 billion in the third quarter last year, according to the Federal Reserve.

Home prices are expected to further fall by up to 11 percent through the year 2011 and register a total drop of 36 percent from the 2006 peak, based on a Morgan Stanley report.

Now, let’s put these behind, and focus on the positive predictions for the year 2011:

Job growth will nearly double to 2.1 million new jobs from 1.1 million jobs added last year. According to the American Bankers Association, small business growth will be the primary mover this year.

The unemployment rate is expected to drop further after improving from the seven-month high rate of 9.8 percent to 9.4 percent in December 2010.

The Employment Trend Index rose to 99.3 in December 2010 from the previous month’s 98.5. This index is compiled by the Conference Board using data on unemployment claims, number of temporary employees, industrial production, trade sales, number of part-time workers, job openings and consumer confidence.

The CEO Confidence Index increased to 62 in last year’s final quarter, up from 50 in the third quarter. This index measures CEO confidence in U.S. economic recovery and growth. Almost 55 percent of CEOs surveyed said that conditions have improved, compared to only 38 percent in the previous quarter.

Housing starts will increase to 670,000 units in 2011 from 600,000 in 2010, according to the Conference Board.

Consumer spending will rise in 2011, but it will be propelled by spending by the rich and upper income families, according to another Bloomberg article. Nevertheless, the spending total of this group of consumers will help spark retail, manufacturing and employment.

Let’s stay hopeful. It’s a great feeling. Thomas Carlyle said, “A strong mind always hopes, and has always cause to hope.” Sarah Ban Breathnach is definitely hopeful, saying “The dry season in life do not last. The spring rains will come again.”

Investing in Tampa commercial real estate is a smart endeavor to consider during a time of low property prices. Contact the Tampa4U team of real estate professionals for guidance.