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The WRONG Top ten List to be on...

By
Real Estate Agent with Century 21 Results Realty GA RE Lic # 282060
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Yahoo News recently published an article titled "The Eight States Running Out of Homebuyers".  (I know, I said 10... they say 8, but they mentioned that Colorado and South Carolina barely missed inclusion).

Georgia ranked #6...

I'll cut to the chase and give you the list.  Check out the article for the details on each state...

  1. Michigan
  2. Nevada
  3. Arizona
  4. California
  5. Illinois
  6. Georgia
  7. Oregon
  8. Florida
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Georgia made it onto the list because of the following statistics...

  • 2010 Foreclosures: 3.25% (6th Worst)
  • Unemployment: 10% (9th Worst)
  • Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -82.29% (2nd Worst)

Of course, I want to put my spin on these things...

There is no getting around the foreclosures.  As a real estate agent, I see loads of them listed in the local MLS (Multiple Listing Service), as well as properties that are foreclosed, but not yet listed.  I also see the properties that are on their way to foreclosure... short sales, neglected homes, etc.  They are seriously impacting home values across the state.

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Unemployment is the big one.  As employment increases, pressure on the housing market decreases.  Simply put, buyers are reluctant to buy when they aren't feeling secure in their employment future.  There are some rumblings that could bring an improvement to the employment rate... FedEx is building a new Distribution Center in Norcross (Gwinnett County) that will be bringing a good number of jobs to the area over the next 18 months (it is scheduled to open in Sept. 2012).  While the 200 people that will work in the facility will be largely from other FedEx facilities, there will be jobs from the construction of the 215,000sf facility.  There may be future jobs added as well.  Kia Motors has a production facility in the state that is expanding.  There are other companies, large and small, that are opening or expanding operations in Georgia, as well.

The decrease in building permits is another mattehttp://activerain.com/action/blogs_admin/writer entirely.  I see it as a backward looking indicator.  I also see a decrease in construction starts as positive news for inventory already on the market.  And in the last couple of years, we have seen the inventories decrease by half...  If there is already an over-supply, more building won't help that.  And we have an oversupply.

The bottom line, for me, is that the article contains a mixed bag for Georgia.  There is NO question that the market here has been damaged, but at the same time, there may be rays of hope hiding in the tunnel.

The Eight States Running Out of Homebuyers

Georgia's Real Estate Outlook on LaneBailey.com

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Comments (45)

Brenda, Ron, Lee Cunningham & Tara Keator
West USA Realty - Phoenix, AZ
Realtors, Homes for Sale - Phoenix Metro

Well, I am in Arizona and we certainly have buyers.  The Phoenix area has always had alot of movement in the Real Estate market.  We have suffered in this economy and will take some time to recoop.  But some consumer confidence would go along way and the negative articles out there certainly don't do anything to help that!  There are also a lot of foreign investors purchasing here since our pricing has gotten so low. 

Jan 21, 2011 06:12 AM
Gayle Barton, Forsyth County Real Estate
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY Georgia Properties - Cumming, GA
Cumming GA Homes For Sale (404) 710-0204

In our area a huge portion of the 2nd home buyers were from Florida so that is one of the main reasons we've taken a hit... that along with the fact that many buyers just can't a loan for a 2nd home right now.

That being said, I still had a good 2010 and I'm hoping for a great 2011 for us all!

Jan 21, 2011 06:23 AM
Anonymous
Mark Cohen, Eyemark Realty, Gainesville, Florida USA

So, you believe everything you read?  Florida is running out of buyers?

There are still about 1,000 persons a day moving to Florida.  We will continue to have the weather in the winter that northerners like, the beaches, the great retirement communities and cities, and low taxes.

Whoever comes up with such crazy data is in it only to sell their article even if it makes no sense.

Jan 21, 2011 06:26 AM
#29
Ray Waisler
Finance of America - Atlanta, GA
NMLS #6621 - Specializing in Jumbo FHA & VA

Lane,

The reality is that the Atlanta and surrounding areas are growing steadily on an annual basis. Last I heard, something around 14% to 27% annually. The takeaway is the increase in population will need to be housed.

Although the real estate market is in a current state of turmoil, I see signs of improvement and significant long term gains in real estate activity in the near future.

We can only hope that the new governor will see job creation as his most important task, as that will help the real estate market dramatically.  

Keep a stiff upper lip, there is hope at the end of the tunnel.

 

Jan 21, 2011 07:09 AM
Victoria CB Trees
Victoria CB Trees Real Estate Services - Chiloquin, OR
Principal Broker

And so, here I am on this top 10 list...  Actually, I'm pretty happy about the decrease in building permits (although my contractor friends who have taken up long haul truck driving aren't too spiffy about it), and lowered prices sure help my buyers want to jump in.  Unemployment is definitely high, but it also means that the employed level is 90%?  So if 90% of the employable population is employed, and prices are low... hmmm.  LOL!  Oh, and I'm about as far south of Portland as you can get without going to California, so our numbers are always a "bit" different.

7. Oregon

Unemployment: 10.6% (Tied for 5th Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -74.08% (7th Worst)
Number of Listings With Price Reductions (Portland): 35% (Tied for 8th Worst Among 50 Largest U.S. Cities)

Oregon's real estate market has suffered the double blow of a sharp drop in both building permits and price reductions on existing homes. Unemployment is 10.6%, the fifth worst rate in the country. The number of new building permits decreased by 74% from 2006 to 2010. In December 2010, 35% of listings in Portland, the state's largest city, had price reductions.

Jan 21, 2011 08:50 AM
Derrick Guevremont
Counselor Realty of Rochester - Rochester, MN
Rochester MN Homes for Sale

In Rochester, MN we noticed a sharp decline in the number of entry-level homes available after first-time homeowner's tax credit expired last spring.  Many affordable homes were sold.  Now, I believe we have a couple of listings that would have sold for sure during that time;  But there are fewer buyers left at those prices.  That being said, the prices are lower on those homes and so are the interest rates.  We are still working for our sellers this winter and also looking forward to spring time when the weather always helps bring buyers out. 

Jan 21, 2011 09:21 AM
Thom Abbott
MyMidtownMojo.com |770.713.1505 | Intown Atlanta GA Condo Living - Atlanta, GA
Midtown Atlanta GA Condos For Sale

 

Well, isn't this just a fine pickle......I hope by budding Hollywood stars land a movie roll soon.....

Jan 21, 2011 11:33 AM
Alan Grizzle
Chestatee Real Estate - Dahlonega, GA
Full Time Realtor, Lifelong Resident of Dahlonega

I agree the lack of new construction will help the market in the long run. We have got to sell off what we have now to get supply and demand back in line.

Jan 21, 2011 01:07 PM
Todd Anderson
You In Park City group - KW Park City Keller Williams Real Estate - Park City, UT
Park City | Deer Valley Real Estate

It is an interesting list, I think I have to follow some of the others in this thread and ask "Do you believe it is true?"

Jan 21, 2011 01:56 PM
F U
nobody - Alamance, NT
Dead

I love Gwinnett, nice area, great shopping. Sad to see it on the list.

Jan 21, 2011 02:41 PM
Chandler Real Estate Liz Harris, MBA
Liz Harris Realty - Chandler, AZ
#ChandlerRealEstateAgent

I see plenty of buyers in Arizona... we are in good shape!  We have the most awesome weather and terrific people! 

Jan 21, 2011 03:01 PM
Marte Cliff
Marte Cliff Copywriting - Priest River, ID
Your real estate writer

This is interesting - how the statistics and agent comments don't quite line up.

I think everyone should just knuckle down, work hard, and EXPECT a great 2011.

Jan 21, 2011 04:44 PM
Carol Tunis
Florida Homes Realty & Mortgage - Saint Augustine, FL
Carol Tunis...a "HouseSold" name!

You can ask one agent in the office and they say it's slow.  Ask another agent and they can hardly keep up with the load.  I say, make your own reality and the heck with the stats.  If sales are down, then be the agent that's making the sales.  I like living in my own reality. LOL

Jan 22, 2011 11:10 AM
Jon Quist
REALTY EXECUTIVES ARIZONA TERRITORY - Tucson, AZ
Tucson's BUYERS ONLY Realtor since 1996

Wow. you're right. Not a good list to be on, for sure.

Of course Arizona is on the list, but a lot of our buyers come from out of state, are looking for good deals, which we have, and have cash, so some of the article's logic doesn't apply.

Jan 22, 2011 07:44 PM
Julianne O'Reilly
Syracuse Listings - Fayetteville, NY
Syracuse New York Real Estate

Interesting. Definately not the list to be on... glad New York is not on this list.

Jan 23, 2011 10:26 PM
Joy Carter & Jeff Booker Brother and Sister Team
Keller Williams Parkland/Coral Springs Realty-GreatFloridaHomes Team - Coral Springs, FL
Trust Your Family's Move To Our Expertise!

Florida makes the list, but it doesn't bother me.  Real estate is still local.  We have HUGE Draws here to make people want to be in this neck of the states.  In my area, good schools is a stong puller.

As long as we have beautiful beaches, sunshine, golf and other outdoor activity, I believe we will recover strong and thrive in the future.  Jobs of course are a key to this success, but that appears to be improving as well.  Any improvement is a process and sadly a slow one.  Joy

Jan 24, 2011 03:05 AM
Dennis Neal
RE/MAX, Big Bear - Big Bear Lake, CA
Your Home Sold in 21 Days or We Sell It For Free

California, maybe we should cut some spending, cut some taxes and become more business friendly. Just a thought.

Jan 24, 2011 07:36 AM
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy

Thank you all for the comments. 

Feb 05, 2011 06:32 AM
Donne Knudsen
Los Angeles & Ventura Counties in CA - Simi Valley, CA
CalState Realty Services

Lane - I'm going to chime in with some of the other CA commenters.  I don't see a shortage of buyers.  However, what I am seeing are more obstacles in getting to the closing table (an not because of borrower eligibility).  I have a pipeline full of pre-approved borrowers actively out there looking to get into escrow.  Their biggest obstacle - finding properties that are eligible for financing (a whole other post).

Feb 17, 2011 07:04 AM
Matt Robinson
Professional Investors Guild - Pensacola, FL
www.professionalinvestorsguild.com

If our government doesn't change course with it's current policies, there will be 50 states on the list of areas running out of homebuyers.  Their recent lawsuit against the major lenders will further cripple lending, and without mortgages, our industry will no doubt crash and burn.

Sep 06, 2011 05:32 AM