Las Vegas Hard Core Numbers to Debunk Shadow Inventory Boogeyman!

So my recent post on Las Vegas Shadow Inventory has really caused a stir on Active Rain.  Comment #28 proceeds to ask:

Well it was my opinion because I am so entrenched in this market.  It was definitely what I see and feel all around me.  That comment (along with several others) has prompted me to actually do the research.

Ready for some boring numbers that will scare the “Shadow Inventory Boogeyman” back into oblivion?  (you may want to read this before bed as it may bore you to tears if you don’t like the numbers and truth!)

I am starting with two samplings:

• Half Mile Radius from My house
• One Mile Radius from My House

I choose this area because this is where I live and work around and since it boasts “newer” Las Vegas Communities– it is definitely a decent – yet provides a wide – sampling of trustee sales being held.  This is the area that I live, work and play around and this is also ground zero folks!

All the numbers are provided from 2009 trustee sales – this has given more than enough time for banks to get those assets off the books and deal with the things they need to deal with that I discussed in the Las Vegas Shadow Inventory article that caused much stir & controversy:  the legal, trashouts, tenants and uncooperative tenants.

The Shadow Inventory Boogeymen are going to GASP at how wrong they actually are when I get down to Clark County’s actual and factual numbers of holds.  FYI, this is all of Clark County – I did not filter it out for purely the Las Vegas Valley.  It does include outlying areas such as Mesquite & Laughlin.

So – after about a half an hour after digging in our tax records and without further a-do here we go!

Half Mile Radius from My Home in SW Las Vegas:

• 1689 Homes
• 188 Sold in 2009
• 94 Trustee Deeds Resold
• 87  Short Sale or Standard Sales
• 7 Trustee Deeds Not Resold – of those 7, 6 were purchased and are being held by private investors thatpurchased it at the trustee sale and 1 is being held and rented by the bank.  This represents an REO hold rate of slightly smaller than 16% of all trustee deeds that were actually held (foreclosure auctions) in 2009.

One Mile Radius from My House:

• 4253 Homes
• 533 Sold in 2009
• 288 Trustee Deeds Resold
• 230 Short Sale or Standard Sales
• 15 Trustee Deeds not Resold – 15 Trustee Deeds Not Resold – of those 16, 9 were purchased and are being held by private investors that purchased it at the trustee sale and 5 are being held and rented by the bank, 1 is being held by bank with occupancy uncertain, 1 sale happened to be a resale and wasn’t recorded properly.  This represents an REO hold rate of slightly smaller than 40% of all trustee deeds that were actually held (foreclosure auctions) in 2009.

In all of Clark County in 2009:

There were a total of 28332 Trustee Sales

A total of 26856 Trustee Sales were Resold.

1476 of those Trustee Deeds are still being held today.  Using my 16-40% samplings that means you have a total – again in all of Clark County of bank inventory – from 2009 to amount to the low 200s to the 500s (in units).  Take that times 4 years of hell and you only end up with 2000 units if you figure on the high end.  Maybe 1000 on the low end – when experts claim the amount that the banks are “holding” is really in the tens of thousands in our valley alone.

Bye Bye Shadow Inventory Boogeyman.  You will not be missed.